Mike Hollingshead
When there is hope I think a CHASER will go with that. I don't need "reality" when something has many things going for it.
The newest GFS being even quicker with this sure does take a stab at the hope I was having however.
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Long Range Weather Pattern...WOW!!
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When there is hope I think a CHASER will go with that. I don't need "reality" when something has many things going for it.
The newest GFS being even quicker with this sure does take a stab at the hope I was having however.
nickgrillo
EF5
So very true, Mike...
I would have to favor the latest GFS run given my current geographical location (and I am REALLY up for a chase). At the surface, a broad baroclinic zone should form across the upper MS valley (with cold front from MO curving into TX and trough/surface low in MO/IL region) with strong mid-upper flow above strongly backed boundary layer flow -- in a relatively moist airmass -- could indeed support a scattered severe event across this region.mikegeukes
EF5
Michigan has seen tornadoes in November 1970-2004
5 Tornadoes, 4 Tornado Days
Mike
nickgrillo
EF5
MI won't be much of a concern (none at all, really) with this system... The current GFS has cyclogenesis over the upper Mississipi valley on Saturday, with the system pushing dramatically northeast by the end of the weekend/early next week. If this system happens like I see (and want) it, there would be a broad warm sector across MO / IL / IN - with intense severe thunderstorms developing by the afternoon. This thing is still way out (although both GFS/ECMWF have been rather simuler for the past few runs now), so we'll see...Mike Johnston
EF5
This setup is worth keeping an eye on. If nothing else, the UVV looks pretty dynamic, and the lapse rates quite steep. I also like the orientation of height lines at 850mb, perpendicular to the isotherms; even notice a hint of divergent jet flow up above; nice wind crossover with height. As noted above, juice naturally subject to question on seasonality grounds alone, but actually the surface flows in the couple days leading up to the setup offer some promise for a decent gulf/carribean fetch, so the 60-65td forecast appears feasible.
nickgrillo
EF5
It appears the latest GFS solution has trended back to yesterday's 12z run... This would be putting the trough/surface low in eastern MO, with a broad warm sector stretching across MO/IL/IN. The combination of increasing low-level moisture feeding into the region and very favorable veered/sheared flow with height (30-40kt SW LLJ, >50kts at 500mb and 80-100kt flow at 250mb) will make a very favorable setup for organized supercells.
In addition, the latest GFS run has dramatically slowed down the progression of the trough -- with the current solution painting a favorable 2-day setup across the Upper Mississipi Valley for severe thunderstorms ( http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/disp...hr108hr132hr156 ) and the trough is much more negatively-tilted by Sunday. This is such a dream setup for me... I just wonder how much of it will end up turning out like this. I just need a chase within <500 miles of my house on a weekend to please me
nickgrillo
EF5
Wow... Another potentially active period evolving next week:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/disp...hr132hr156hr180
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/disp...hr132hr156hr180Tim Gonyo
EF2
Nick,
What site do you use to see the GFS out to 384 hours?
nickgrillo
EF5
Dan Cook
EF5
nickgrillo
EF5
For the first time in monthes, low-mid 60s surface Tds are progged to advect all the way north into upper midwest... So, this upcoming pattern should indeed be something to watch. This could indeed pave the way for a active first half of November, as waves ride the fast zonal flow into the central/northern US in the midst of impressive boundary layer moisture. Current GFS favors a amplifying upper-air pattern... With a trough digging into the central US by early next-week -- possibley producing a string of more organized severe weather events from the plains into the midwest. I have a good measure of confidence in this pattern...Tim Gonyo
EF2
I'm ready for a deep trough with intense cold, snow, and wind. Where are the November's I'm used to? Save this pattern for April!
Aric Cylkowski
EF2
The following quote was taken from the DTX forecast discussion, available here:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/data/DTX/AFDDTX
I'm going to hold off until 48 hours prior to the Sunday event before counting MI out. Concensus should occur by that time and give us a good idea whats coming.
Robert Dewey
EF5
Yeah, there is definitely very little in the way of agreement. ECMWF run at 12Z still shows a decently strong system. UKMET has a decent reflection, and NAM looks like it's starting to show something decent (at least on the 18Z run). GFS is the weakest solution of them all...
I was really hoping for a November bomb...
Kurt Hulst
EF5
Dude your crazy. Hate snow hope it never snows. I'm watching for the next weeks system to get here b/w wed and friday. The latest 18z GFS was looking like Friday 18z through IL/ IN. But will see what 00z brings, I have been watching this coming system from 334 hours out and it looked very strong then weaken and collapse almost ,then to regain its potential.Similar threads
