Long Range Weather Pattern...WOW!!

[Robert Dewey]

I don't know, I kind of agree with Tim. We all know it's going to get cold eventually, and nothing is worse than a cold and cloudy day... The only thing that makes me happy in a situation like that is severe winter weather. Though, winter typically starts in early December around our parts, which I think is good timing... Any earlier than that is pushing it.

For the Great Lakes, I think it's safe to say the SVR season is dead anyway, so we need SOME kind of meteorological action.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

I think the system for this weekend is toast...too moisture starved, plus it won't really phase together and bomb like earlier projections indicated. However, later systems could be more interesting as the Gulf boundary layer continues to modify, with no significant cold intrusions.

 

[nickgrillo]

For Saturday... All of my FCST posts for Saturday are in the Maproom thread. I believe there could be a marginally decent severe weather event, per the latest NAM run, for northern AR (and this will probably change by the 18z and 0z runs) -- with relatively deep moisture and insolation giving way to moderate SFC based instability. Gradually veering profiles from the surface yields decent deep-layer shear profiles favorable for rotating updrafts.

For Sunday... As I said (and a DTX met said perfectly) in the Maproom thread, models have been absolutely clueless on how to handle Sunday's solution. Most solutions mature the trough and blast it off the northeast coast by the end of the weekend (so much for the "Ohio Valley" event).

For the long-range... GFS has fast zonal flow persisting across the US through next week. It is way too early to pinpoint any potential events... But a shortwave appears to eject into the upper Midwest on Tuesday -- with >40kt SW low-level flow advecting deep moisture all the way into WI -- with the 60F dewpoint gradient as far north as Chicago. On Wednesday, there could be a non-convective wind event across the great lakes as a >125kt upper-level jet blasts through the region.

 

[Dan Robinson]

~80F temps in the midwest/northeast in November = don't turn your back on the sky. A weekend chase is just what I need right about now. If this pans out it will be my fourth long distance chase in the October-November period in the last 4 years (10/24/01, 11/10/02, 11/12/03).

Late fall chases are some of the best - a day where you can roll down the windows, taking in the warm air and fall colors on your way to the storm of the day. Something classic about it. I even ran into DOW2 near Canton Ohio on 11/12/03, then drove through town later hearing the sound of tornado sirens blaring. Made for some interesting dashcam video, driving past the Pro Football hall of fame with tornado sirens going, all while the NWR is broadcasting a short-term forecast for snow in 3 hours!

Only thing missing from this setup is snow the day after the storms.

 

[Dan Cook]

Next Wed looks alright so far. 995 low in Minnisota, dewpoints in 60s or so.

 

[Brett Adair]

GFS indicates a monster trough coming onshore into Central/Southern Cali by the middle of next week. (120 hrs or so) With the flip-flop pattern of the GFS, I don't know that I buy it yet. There is a ton of cold air building up north, and the NAO has to bomb negative again sometime. Sine we are going positive, ridging is likely early into the weak. This weak front will not dry the air much as it moves through or rains itself out.

 

[Joel Wright]

Okay, what the heck? The 0z GFS run from tonight shows a bombing storm in the great lakes region Saturday night through Sunday night. The NAM shows a progressive weak system scooting through with hardly any action. And this is at 60hrs!! I can't remember these two models disagreeing THIS much so relatively close to the present.

I guess it'll be interesting to see which one is correct, or if it's a blend of the two....

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Joel Wright
Okay, what the heck? The 0z GFS run from tonight shows a bombing storm in the great lakes region Saturday night through Sunday night. The NAM shows a progressive weak system scooting through with hardly any action. And this is at 60hrs!! I can't remember these two models disagreeing THIS much so relatively close to the present.

I guess it'll be interesting to see which one is correct, or if it's a blend of the two....

The 06Z GFS is even stronger now... And all of the other models (UKMET, ECMWF, etc.) are actually even stronger than the 06Z GFS! The odd model out is definitely the NAM - which has been very inconsistant. It's 06Z run is definitely hinting at a stronger system though...

I really hope we can bomb this thing out and get a November bomb here in the Great Lakes... At this point, I don't even care if it has severe weather - I just want something synoptically active!

 

[Robert Dewey]

Man, I'm absolutely lovin' the latest GFS! Hopefully the NAM will switch to a stronger solution and be in line with the rest of the forecast models.

As it stands, the latest GFS would give the Great Lakes a decent shot at some severe weather (probably low topped / forced squall line), with SFC based LI's down to -2C, very strong height falls, and nearly 80KNTS at 700MB / 100KNTS at 500MB... Not to mention, the very tight pressure gradient and strong CAA right behind the front would produce storm force winds / gusts AOA 50KNTS right along and several hours after the frontal passage...

:keeps fingers crossed:

 

[nickgrillo]

Originally posted by rdewey
Man, I'm absolutely lovin' the latest GFS! Hopefully the NAM will switch to a stronger solution and be in line with the rest of the forecast models.

As it stands, the latest GFS would give the Great Lakes a decent shot at some severe weather (probably low topped / forced squall line), with SFC based LI's down to -2C, very strong height falls, and nearly 80KNTS at 700MB / 100KNTS at 500MB... Not to mention, the very tight pressure gradient and strong CAA right behind the front would produce storm force winds / gusts AOA 50KNTS right along and several hours after the frontal passage...

:keeps fingers crossed:

Yeah, I could see this too... Infact, I would see a good chance of a pretty strong convective wind event if the latest 12z GFS verifies. Instability is pretty minimal, but extremely strong wind fields (as you mentioned) would be very supportive of a strongly forced line of storms during Saturday night/early Sunday.

 

[Ben Cotton]

Originally posted by nickgrillo+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(nickgrillo)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-rdewey

Man, I'm absolutely lovin' the latest GFS! Hopefully the NAM will switch to a stronger solution and be in line with the rest of the forecast models.

As it stands, the latest GFS would give the Great Lakes a decent shot at some severe weather (probably low topped / forced squall line), with SFC based LI's down to -2C, very strong height falls, and nearly 80KNTS at 700MB / 100KNTS at 500MB... Not to mention, the very tight pressure gradient and strong CAA right behind the front would produce storm force winds / gusts AOA 50KNTS right along and several hours after the frontal passage...

:keeps fingers crossed:

Yeah, I could see this too... Infact, I would see a good chance of a pretty strong convective wind event if the latest 12z GFS verifies. Instability is pretty minimal, but extremely strong wind fields (as you mentioned) would be very supportive of a strongly forced line of storms during Saturday night/early Sunday.[/b]

*cough* map room

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Ben Cotton+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Ben Cotton)</div>

Originally posted by nickgrillo@
<!--QuoteBegin-rdewey

Man, I'm absolutely lovin' the latest GFS! Hopefully the NAM will switch to a stronger solution and be in line with the rest of the forecast models.

As it stands, the latest GFS would give the Great Lakes a decent shot at some severe weather (probably low topped / forced squall line), with SFC based LI's down to -2C, very strong height falls, and nearly 80KNTS at 700MB / 100KNTS at 500MB... Not to mention, the very tight pressure gradient and strong CAA right behind the front would produce storm force winds / gusts AOA 50KNTS right along and several hours after the frontal passage...

:keeps fingers crossed:

Yeah, I could see this too... Infact, I would see a good chance of a pretty strong convective wind event if the latest 12z GFS verifies. Instability is pretty minimal, but extremely strong wind fields (as you mentioned) would be very supportive of a strongly forced line of storms during Saturday night/early Sunday.

*cough* map room[/b]

Perhaps...

I am discussing all aspects of this system though, not just forecasting a "target". I would suspect that a true forecast, in relation to chasing, would belong in the Map Room though...

 

[nickgrillo]

Originally posted by rdewey+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(rdewey)</div>

Originally posted by Ben Cotton+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Ben Cotton)

<!--QuoteBegin-nickgrillo

@
<!--QuoteBegin-rdewey

Man, I'm absolutely lovin' the latest GFS! Hopefully the NAM will switch to a stronger solution and be in line with the rest of the forecast models.

As it stands, the latest GFS would give the Great Lakes a decent shot at some severe weather (probably low topped / forced squall line), with SFC based LI's down to -2C, very strong height falls, and nearly 80KNTS at 700MB / 100KNTS at 500MB... Not to mention, the very tight pressure gradient and strong CAA right behind the front would produce storm force winds / gusts AOA 50KNTS right along and several hours after the frontal passage...

:keeps fingers crossed:

Yeah, I could see this too... Infact, I would see a good chance of a pretty strong convective wind event if the latest 12z GFS verifies. Instability is pretty minimal, but extremely strong wind fields (as you mentioned) would be very supportive of a strongly forced line of storms during Saturday night/early Sunday.

*cough* map room[/b]

Perhaps...

I am discussing all aspects of this system though, not just forecasting a "target". I would suspect that a true forecast, in relation to chasing, would belong in the Map Room though...[/b][/quote]

No, I believe he was referring to the "maproom" because of the post he made of downplaying tomorrow...

 

[Ben Cotton]

Originally posted by nickgrillo+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(nickgrillo)</div>

Originally posted by rdewey+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(rdewey)

Originally posted by Ben Cotton
<!--QuoteBegin-nickgrillo

@
<!--QuoteBegin-rdewey

Man, I'm absolutely lovin' the latest GFS! Hopefully the NAM will switch to a stronger solution and be in line with the rest of the forecast models.

As it stands, the latest GFS would give the Great Lakes a decent shot at some severe weather (probably low topped / forced squall line), with SFC based LI's down to -2C, very strong height falls, and nearly 80KNTS at 700MB / 100KNTS at 500MB... Not to mention, the very tight pressure gradient and strong CAA right behind the front would produce storm force winds / gusts AOA 50KNTS right along and several hours after the frontal passage...

:keeps fingers crossed:

Yeah, I could see this too... Infact, I would see a good chance of a pretty strong convective wind event if the latest 12z GFS verifies. Instability is pretty minimal, but extremely strong wind fields (as you mentioned) would be very supportive of a strongly forced line of storms during Saturday night/early Sunday.

*cough* map room

Perhaps...

I am discussing all aspects of this system though, not just forecasting a "target". I would suspect that a true forecast, in relation to chasing, would belong in the Map Room though...[/b]

No, I believe he was referring to the "maproom" because of the post he made of downplaying tomorrow...[/b][/quote]
Most nested quotes ever? No, Nick, I was referring to the fact that a discussion of potential severe weather 24 hours from now hardly fits the description of the Weather Lab forum ("Regular discussions about meteorology, forecasting, and chasing. No current storm discussions, please.") much less the title of this particular thread. Long-range hardly covers tomorrow.


BC

 

[nickgrillo]

Originally posted by Ben Cotton+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Ben Cotton)</div>

Originally posted by nickgrillo+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(nickgrillo)

Originally posted by rdewey

Originally posted by Ben Cotton
<!--QuoteBegin-nickgrillo

@
<!--QuoteBegin-rdewey

Man, I'm absolutely lovin' the latest GFS! Hopefully the NAM will switch to a stronger solution and be in line with the rest of the forecast models.

As it stands, the latest GFS would give the Great Lakes a decent shot at some severe weather (probably low topped / forced squall line), with SFC based LI's down to -2C, very strong height falls, and nearly 80KNTS at 700MB / 100KNTS at 500MB... Not to mention, the very tight pressure gradient and strong CAA right behind the front would produce storm force winds / gusts AOA 50KNTS right along and several hours after the frontal passage...

:keeps fingers crossed:

Yeah, I could see this too... Infact, I would see a good chance of a pretty strong convective wind event if the latest 12z GFS verifies. Instability is pretty minimal, but extremely strong wind fields (as you mentioned) would be very supportive of a strongly forced line of storms during Saturday night/early Sunday.

*cough* map room

Perhaps...

I am discussing all aspects of this system though, not just forecasting a "target". I would suspect that a true forecast, in relation to chasing, would belong in the Map Room though...

No, I believe he was referring to the "maproom" because of the post he made of downplaying tomorrow...[/b]

Most nested quotes ever? No, Nick, I was referring to the fact that a discussion of potential severe weather 24 hours from now hardly fits the description of the Weather Lab forum ("Regular discussions about meteorology, forecasting, and chasing. No current storm discussions, please.") much less the title of this particular thread. Long-range hardly covers tomorrow.


BC[/b][/quote]

Apologies... I thought you meant something else :wink: