Mark my words... there will be a massive supercallafragilisticexpealladocius severe weather outbreak on Sunday, May 27th. How do I know this? Because I'll be shooting a wedding anniversary at 12:30 that afternoon in Brush, Colorado.
The timing is awful, as Memorial Day weekend always seems to feature some sort of major severe weather event in the Central Plains, but then again, it's only a half hour commitment and after developing costs it's something like $130 in my pocket for an easy half hour's work
... as well as more than enough to pay for gas/food for one big chase (I have a goood feeling about some Panhandle Magic in early June) or several smaller, local chases in my classic Tri-State(eastern CO/western NE/northwestern KS) stomping ground.
I'm really hoping the big action will stay in my "backyard" as it be, as with gas prices seemingly heading north to Alaska, I, like many chasers, just won't be able to afford multiple 1000+ mile chase trips. That prolly sounds more than a little selfish, but hey: the Southern Plains have had a lion's share of sweet severe weather thus far this season, and the majority of the chasers who live out there have had multiple, magnificent tornado days; it's time for us Central Plains dwellers to cash in on the action(3/28 being a significant exception). *end of personal rant*
Forecast wise, I think we may start to see a return to a more severe wx favorable pattern around the 20th, and with all the wads of spare cash I have lying around, I'd put money on a massive outbreak around or during Memorial Day weekend and at least one awesome day of Panhandle Magic the first week of June. After that, the High Plains will be the place to be for the remainder of the chase season, with a possible significant Northern Plains event sometime in mid to late June ( a la 6/23/04).
Call it wishcasting, call it dreaming, but I have a feeling Colorado may have its first major tornado day since May 17, 2000 in late May or early June. With the abundant precip we've had this spring, everything is green around here, and I mean EVERYTHING. The evapotranspiration from all this greenery is definitely going to boost dp's around here. Frankly, I expect we will see *gasp* dp's
reach the lower 60's across parts of eastern CO on days where we have favorable easterly or southeasterly flow! This kind of juice is extremely rare in this semi-arid climate!
Time after time, as any who has chased in this fair state will tell you, many a potential western High Plains tornado outbreak has been spoiled by lack of deep moisture. These tornado setups can be likened to a slightly botched multi-berry smoothie: the various 'berries' (dynamics, wind shear, surface boundaries, etc) are there, but it seems there isn't ever enough ice ( moisture) and the result is palatable, but rarely delicious.
But if enough "ice" is added to the mix, the smoothie suddenly becomes a spectacular treat. It seems for the first time in many years, all the ingredients will be in place, and I believe that this is what we're going to get in the western High Plains between the end of May and the end of June: a spectacular treat.
I join my fellow 'watchers and waiters' with high hopes and baited breath...
