Rocky Rascovich
EF4
Rocky's BIG prediction
Whats up?? I've been doing quite a bit of analysis thismorning on the GFS, and its ensembles as well as the Euro... and looking at the overall northern hemispheric pattern, and my guess is..
The season is over as far as Okla. and TX. with the exception maybe for the PH's. Models have been almost too consistent of an anemic mid and upper flow pattern for these parts. Now, I'm not saying we won't have any more storms, its just that as far as any major synoptic events.. I think we are done here in the southern plains. What is going in our favour is the excessively wet conditions that will provide exceptional evapo transpiration. I do expect still subtle disturbances that will trigger convection and with all the surface moisture, will only enhance convection... and this time of year, thats all you need.
One hope I have is long range models are hinting at a pattern change for the week leading up to Memorial Day weekend, I think this will eventually transpire and MAY provide some severe weather for the southern high plains and JUST MAYBE into western and central Okla. for that weekend. Capping issues will be present though but again with dewpoints in the low 70's and increasing 500mb. flow, any shortwaves coming through could do it around these parts.
Further north and west, I do anticipate this trough and associated vortmaxes to trigger severe convection with its assorted delights for us chasers from KS., NE. and eastern CO. on up to the Dakota's and eventually MN. and IA. The GOM should be open for business by then with good flow.
On into June... I expect ridging to take a firm hold across the desert SW and expanding into the southern plains and the intermountain states from cntrl CO. on south. I think that we'll have some NW flow events courtesy of an upper level trough that may set up across the great lakes on into the Northeast. I think there will be some good chasing despite some of the negatives presented here for the western high plains.. keep in mind, lots of moisture these last several months will provide a big boost to E.T's. With that said, I think we'll experience several MCS's traversing the central plains originating from eastern WY.&CO. and maybe affecting areas as far south as Okla. Also another period where we may experience a western trough with good cyclogenesis that will focus on the northeast CO. area on up to eastern MT. and Dakota's and MN. could be around mid June.
Even further ahead...?? Why not, I think a very serious heat wave will envelope the desert southwest by mid June... I'm predicting near 120F for Phoenix by late in the month... they are still in the midst of serious drought conditions and this will only get worse as I expect a late start to their monsoon season this year. TX.&Okla. will slowly but gradually dry out from late June thru July but still scattered convective events are likely.. actually, I expect near normal rainfall at least here in Okla. through at maybe most of July, mostly coming from MCS's that I think may occur coming from CO.&KS. but then starting in Aug. and on into the fall, what I believe will be a return to drought conditions may result along with excessive heat... hopefully I'm wrong.. maybe a major hurricane coming into the GOM may keep our moist streak going if it can make its way up to these parts.
Speaking of hurricanes, I'll throw in my two cents worth on that too... definitely a more active season than last year, with a mild La Nina developing, strong upper level flow that can be associated with El Nino's will be not near of an issue this year, this will allow substantially more tropical activity. I think that the Carolina coast will have to really watch it this year as will the Bahamas and from Puerto Rico on down to Martinique.
I'm expecting 14-16 named storms, with 5 major (cat 3 or above) I think we'll see at least one significant hurricane in the gulf this year, but I think the majority of the activity will be across the Atlantic this year.
So.... this ought to be fun to see if this all comes to pass... as I'm sure your guessing, this is all speculative, I'm not a degreed meteorologist, but I do study patterns and I run roughly a 50-60% accuracy rate... on these long term outlooks... I hope I bomb out and you all can laugh at me on my prediction of the drought returning here to the southern plains later this summer and the extreme heat and drought for the SW. I was ready to pack up last summer and head back to Mich. with what we endured here in Okla. last year, it was horrible. Today, Its lush geen with another inch of rain last night... its patterns like this I can easily deal with. I pray it only continues.
Watch out for the Announcements header for the Storm chase picnic which I think may be a GO for May 19th. We should still be in a down period before the next projected trough the week after....
WHEW! You actually read the whole thing! What a trooper you are!
Whats up?? I've been doing quite a bit of analysis thismorning on the GFS, and its ensembles as well as the Euro... and looking at the overall northern hemispheric pattern, and my guess is..
The season is over as far as Okla. and TX. with the exception maybe for the PH's. Models have been almost too consistent of an anemic mid and upper flow pattern for these parts. Now, I'm not saying we won't have any more storms, its just that as far as any major synoptic events.. I think we are done here in the southern plains. What is going in our favour is the excessively wet conditions that will provide exceptional evapo transpiration. I do expect still subtle disturbances that will trigger convection and with all the surface moisture, will only enhance convection... and this time of year, thats all you need.
One hope I have is long range models are hinting at a pattern change for the week leading up to Memorial Day weekend, I think this will eventually transpire and MAY provide some severe weather for the southern high plains and JUST MAYBE into western and central Okla. for that weekend. Capping issues will be present though but again with dewpoints in the low 70's and increasing 500mb. flow, any shortwaves coming through could do it around these parts.
Further north and west, I do anticipate this trough and associated vortmaxes to trigger severe convection with its assorted delights for us chasers from KS., NE. and eastern CO. on up to the Dakota's and eventually MN. and IA. The GOM should be open for business by then with good flow.
On into June... I expect ridging to take a firm hold across the desert SW and expanding into the southern plains and the intermountain states from cntrl CO. on south. I think that we'll have some NW flow events courtesy of an upper level trough that may set up across the great lakes on into the Northeast. I think there will be some good chasing despite some of the negatives presented here for the western high plains.. keep in mind, lots of moisture these last several months will provide a big boost to E.T's. With that said, I think we'll experience several MCS's traversing the central plains originating from eastern WY.&CO. and maybe affecting areas as far south as Okla. Also another period where we may experience a western trough with good cyclogenesis that will focus on the northeast CO. area on up to eastern MT. and Dakota's and MN. could be around mid June.
Even further ahead...?? Why not, I think a very serious heat wave will envelope the desert southwest by mid June... I'm predicting near 120F for Phoenix by late in the month... they are still in the midst of serious drought conditions and this will only get worse as I expect a late start to their monsoon season this year. TX.&Okla. will slowly but gradually dry out from late June thru July but still scattered convective events are likely.. actually, I expect near normal rainfall at least here in Okla. through at maybe most of July, mostly coming from MCS's that I think may occur coming from CO.&KS. but then starting in Aug. and on into the fall, what I believe will be a return to drought conditions may result along with excessive heat... hopefully I'm wrong.. maybe a major hurricane coming into the GOM may keep our moist streak going if it can make its way up to these parts.
Speaking of hurricanes, I'll throw in my two cents worth on that too... definitely a more active season than last year, with a mild La Nina developing, strong upper level flow that can be associated with El Nino's will be not near of an issue this year, this will allow substantially more tropical activity. I think that the Carolina coast will have to really watch it this year as will the Bahamas and from Puerto Rico on down to Martinique.
I'm expecting 14-16 named storms, with 5 major (cat 3 or above) I think we'll see at least one significant hurricane in the gulf this year, but I think the majority of the activity will be across the Atlantic this year.
So.... this ought to be fun to see if this all comes to pass... as I'm sure your guessing, this is all speculative, I'm not a degreed meteorologist, but I do study patterns and I run roughly a 50-60% accuracy rate... on these long term outlooks... I hope I bomb out and you all can laugh at me on my prediction of the drought returning here to the southern plains later this summer and the extreme heat and drought for the SW. I was ready to pack up last summer and head back to Mich. with what we endured here in Okla. last year, it was horrible. Today, Its lush geen with another inch of rain last night... its patterns like this I can easily deal with. I pray it only continues.
Watch out for the Announcements header for the Storm chase picnic which I think may be a GO for May 19th. We should still be in a down period before the next projected trough the week after....
WHEW! You actually read the whole thing! What a trooper you are!
