Future of the Season Pt 3

[Kevin Myatt]

So for those of us on a chasecation now until the start of June, what does one do when the coming pattern comes in to ruin the party? Do you head north in the hope of something in the northern plains? Go sight-seeing for a week (and try and avoid flooding)?

GFS hints at some sort of activity in SD/MN/ND on Saturday and Sunday.

Suggestions appreciated.

Andrew

If you're committed to long drives between small slight svr risk zones, possibly a little outside the typical "chase alley" at times, you can sometimes grab a few pretty good storms, and an occasional gem in a pile of rocks, in a weak pattern that most people aren't chasing. I don't see this as quite the absolute pattern squasher as last year's Hudson Bay vortex at the same time of year was, and we did pretty good (one really picturesque supercell, one small tornado, a few other notable storms) with a lot of LONG drives and chases in places such as Illinois and Wisconsin as well as the typical Plains (not to mention starting with one in North Carolina before we headed west).

Pattern-wise right now, I'd say weak disturbances in the zonal flow over the ridge in the Northern Plains (if we can keep them this side of the Canadian border), a couple of fronts sagging south are the best we've got as we see if anything a little better can get going for late next week into the week after. Sometimes you can get a small area to develop a little more shear or CAPE than projected, and things happen.

Sometimes you can win the pot with a hand of junk. I'm still hoping we can find a couple of aces, though, before we head back just before Memorial Day.

 

[Todd Sprinkmann]

If the severe weather chances do indeed end up being limited to the northern Plains, then chase terrain needs to be taken into account. While this may be better served by creating a separate thread, I'm content starting things off right here. If a mod wants to spin it into a separate thread, I'm fine with that too.

Especially for folks who aren't from the US, I imagine it can be daunting, trying to target a region 1,000 miles long by 500 miles wide. But if chase opportunities come up in the northern Plains, by all means take them. I have spent considerable time in NE/SD/ND/MN/IA and I'd say that 80% of that territory is very good chasing.

Almost all of ND and SD is very underrated and I hope it stays that way. It's nice being out near Dickinson or Winner or Mobridge and only having a handful of other chasers on a storm. Far SW and west central ND aren't the greatest chase territory, as is SW SD. But 90% of those states are flat, hardly any trees and great road networks. Also, because they are farther north, toward the solstice, the chase day can easily extend toward 10pm local time.

I have to go now, but I'm sure others can comment on those areas as well. I'll address NE/IA/MN later tonight or tomorrow.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

And we are back to the crapper again. New GFS shows the ridge back, and just as strong as ever, now through May 20th! Yaaaaaay... and we continue to push the departure date back.

 

[John MacKay]

That shuts me out. I wish I would have had insight on the ridge coming after the outbreak last weekend, because I worried that as soon as the outbreak happened, nothing would happen after that.

May have a chase vacation of 4 days or so later in the season (June and maybe July) to go into either the Northern Plains or the Central Plains. If Memorial Day weekend looks good, I may take a shot at that rather than a late season chase in the Dakotas.

 

[Stan Rose]

Hmm...must be getting close to my annual storm chase, cause the death ridge of May is making yet another unwelcome return!

 

[Dan Robinson]

I wouldn't totally discount late next week yet, though. Troughs have been known to suddenly and mysteriously show up with the models' flip-flopping ways.

However, if you have a departure date this week, I would do everything I could to get it pushed back a week or so. Plead with the boss and pay the extra $50 to get the plane ticket reissued.

Setting a firm chase vacation date is a surefire way to throw money away on blue skies. You have to roll with the weather's time schedule, not yours. I know this is difficult if your employer won't work with you on this, but do everything you can to be flexible. Flexibility=tornadoes.

Seriously, if I had to pick the week of my vacation a long time in advance and couldn't change it, I'd just stay home and wait for next year if it was during a week like the upcoming one. If anything, stay home or do something else during your time off, and save your money for a possible weekend chase trip on a good setup day. One tornado weekend would be better than a week of chasing during a ridge, IMO.

 

[Shane Adams]

As crappy as it is for vacationers, this ridge timed itself perfectly for me. I had a planned two-week work marathon scheduled for last Monday through the weekend of Rocky's party (May 19). As it's working out, I lucked out and am getting an extended down-period falling in line with my work regime. So by the time my two week stint is up, the ridge should be breaking down, I'll have a lot of dough socked away for chasing, and Memorial Day weekend into June chasing begins.

 

[Jim Leonard]

If the 30 day cycle continues like it has since February we should see some chase events toward the 23rd to 29th of May. In the short term it looks like a lot of sightseeing days for anyone who is conducting tours.

 

[Jim Bishop]

Looking at the ensembles, they break down/stretch the West ridge and flatten it out across the Plains and East around the 22nd/23rd. So I'd say around or shortly after that time some more chase setups will occur in the Plains, probably the Central to Northern Plains. So it looks like late May possibly into early June will be the next active period.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

I'm making it a lot harder on myself than it really is. I did take an extended period off work from May 11-31, but beyond that I am still very flexible. My side part time job will allow me to take time off anytime, and my weather office job only requires me to be in on weekends. So even though it would be ideal to get the pattern to become active now that I am completely off, I will still be free five days a week during June if I want.

Non-meteorological stuff aside, it does appear things could become active around the time period most are mentioning around the 22nd on. It appears most of that will be in the northern plains attm. Would be nice to get a couple local setups as well though. Seems after years of stealing the action from the plain's Illinois and surrounding areas have gone dormant. We are half through our peak tornado season without one good setup. Our peak severe season is June and July, but that usually becomes more of the bow echo/mcs type.

I suppose I should have just waited to post anything until the 12z models start showing up, but we'll see what flip fopping they have to show.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Maybe a decent nw flow event for those that have to be out there this weekend, on Saturday in se SD, sw MN, nw IA.

 

[Chris Hayes]

We leave on the 18th for the start of our vacation. Our original base was going to be in Salina, Kansas. I'm starting to wonder if it would be best for me to make a northward turn into Nebraska, such as Lincoln? I dont care where the storms are, just as long as I get a few really good chases in. I have yet to chase in South Dakota.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

If it were me I'd park it in Grand Island.

 

[Paul Knightley]

Unfortunately for my chase colleagues and me, we have to book several months in advance due to work - thus we'll be over on Monday 14th whatever. Still, given the lack of any decent convection here in the UK recently, and that the storms on the Plains even with weak upper flow are generally stronger than some of our summer storms, any storms will be a bonus (it can't be worse than our 2 weeks last year can it?!).

Seriously, I think we'll try to play around with the cold front next week, see if we can get some nighttime lightning (maybe try some daytime lightning photography too!!), and if the flow increases a bit, perhaps head towards the Front Range. Later on (say after 22nd), we'll just have to hope that the jet cranks up again - I'm game for a northern Plains chase!

 

[Eric Flescher]

I get out from teaching on May 25th . That leaves time free for chasing the rest of May and June (hopefully there won't be too many chases on Saturdays when I do BBQ judging in different places) until my EOAS course in Overland Park in July for two weeks (I teach kids about doppler and show them how to use it , show them my tornado and storm videos , we take pictures with telescopes , do internet research and more).
This year is already better then last year (a real bummer ). I hope to see you all on the road somewhere. If you all chase near Kansas City we should try to get together. The storm chaser party that I was supposed to have May 5 (canceled because of chasing) in Olathe, I will see when we can have it. I posted an announcment about it so I can get ideas.
Happy chasing.