Future of the Season Pt 3

[cdcollura]

Ofcourse,

BECAUSE I am free to chase from THIS WEEK (May 6th) and on to the end of May. I started a NEW job and could not chase before May 6.

LUCKILY ... No "chasecation" for me. I spot chase where only big "setups" will be chased ... If any, by the looks of things now ;-(

Sure beat going out there, for 2-3 weeks, seeing nothing except national parks, tornado museums, and flowers ... And getting the ultimate TEASE when your fellow chasers were out there a week earlier saying the following...

"MAN, YOU SHOULDV'E BEEN HERE LAST WEEK, BLAH BLAH ... LOOK AT THIS COOL VIDEO I GOT - TWO WEDGES AT THE SAME TIME, BLAH, BLAH!!!!"

Yeah ... Rub it in a bit harder.

Sounds more like getting to a "whore house" too late after everyone's left and just finding something else to do there instead like watching TV or something - Not what you CAME THERE for originally ;-(

We come to the plains to chase - That's our OBSCESSION - CHASING.

We do not come out there to "find something else" like a deer kissing my face and licking my mullet hair-do during a 3-week long death-ridge in 2003!

 

[Paul Knightley]

Well the GFS continues to show a preference for beach-wear, i.e. it likes to flip-flop! Doh!

Anyway, the 12Z run looks tantilising for a time!

 

[Jim Leonard]

Well, the 12Z gfs and ecmwf have a trough digging in the western U.S. in about 8 to 10 days. We'll see if it goes to something radically different in the next model runs. The roller coaster continues...

 

[Caleb Kimbrough]

Reading all of these posts makes me happy that I can chase at any time of the year!

Ahhhh....the privileges of being young and irresponsible.

We've already had a great year so far, so the rest will just be a bonus in my opinion.

 

[Skip Talbot]

Sounds more like getting to a "whore house" too late after everyone's left and just finding something else to do there instead like watching TV or something

Hahaha... sloppy seconds. I usually reserve that term for a big plains dryline setup after it ejects out over the midwest the next day. Well, if you guys get some smaller scale setups way up north you'll be chasing in less stress than the high risk days produce and definitely have some pretty foregrounds.

 

[Jason Persoff]

First off, I feel the pains of the annual chasers who have to set up their chase times often 6 months in advance (me too, FWIW). But I've also been chasing long enough to resist the immediate temptation to be buggered by the models. I think there have been some excellent discussions in this thread above. Collura, Leonard, Rocky, etc...good comments all.

The one solace I want everyone to have is that we chase mesoscale phenomena. I can remember in '00, the MRF and GFS models had the GOM shut down, the omega ridge in place, and the bulk of severe weather scuttled to N Canada or S MX. However, I found good chasing to be had on post-MCS OFBs and many high CAPE, low shear set-ups in the panhandle. I wish all years could be as well-predicted as '04 was. But I continue to dream of the mesoscale boundaries and realize there's always something to chase.

As for what Chris Collura wrote above--and the pic is a nice touch too btw--'05 and '06 represented sight seeing tours for my time out there with few exceptions. I take comfort in knowing that statistically those anomolies cannot keep up forever. Besides, I got to see my friends, rack up rental car miles (always worth a giggle when u turn in the car), and got some fabulous lightning shots from a couple o' svr storms. The appetite is whet if even if the forecast isn't wet. Here's to hoping.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Wait wait wait wait...


... is that wind that I see above 850 mb now finally showing up on the GFS? Up until now there was only a light breeze anywhere above tree top level.

I can't wait to see how far away that trough goes, and how big the ridge goes on the 0z run Nah, really I hope it's on to something.

Jason brings up a good point too. A lot of times when I think back on my chases, the majority of them, or at least a good amount of them were not events that I saw 200 hours out on the gfs and said "oh yeah, I'm chasing that day". Looking at the models is a good way to get an idea for the general trend, but just because something doesn't show up weeks in advance doesn't mean you'll be sitting under cloudless skies the entire time.

 

[Tony Laubach]

If you are into photography and like the landscape side of it, the Rocky Mountains might be an idea. I've been wanting to go there right when everything turns green and starts flowering, as I've seen some cool images of such scenes, with snow still on the mountain tops. That's just what I'd do though. But, I spend too much on gas just chasing, all year long, that I can't hardly get myself to pull the trigger on a little trip.

I'll add to Mike's comment by stating how green things are this year. The snowy winter has made for the greenest Spring I can remember since moving here in 98. The Hogback and foothills are beautiful right now with all the green! Definately worth a trip if that's your cup of tea!

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Haha, that's classic. As I figured it would be, the trough is gone again. It seems like the 12z gfs wants to build a trough, and the 0z runs want nothing to do with it. Guess we'll see which one wins out.

 

[Dan Robinson]

The only item of interest I see as of 0z is a major western trough on the 16-day GFS for May 27. But that's so far out there it might as well be the 160 day GFS.

 

[Paul Knightley]

Yes, the ECMWF is very uninteresting for the next 10 days. I just can't believe another 2 weeks (after last year's trip) is going to be pretty poor!

Hopefully, something will pop up on the charts and give us some hope.

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

The new 12Z seems to have this overall pattern we're coming into, here to stay for at least two weeks or longer... now getting concerned over our traditional Memorial Day weekend event. One thing models are insistent on is some potential shortwave action that will be imbedded an a weak flow pattern. This may be just enough to preclude the first possible date of the picnic (19May, 1pm). Below are the links to that day which of course is time sensitive as this will change probably after 1800cdt. 11May.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_204m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_204m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_200_204m.gif

Despite the waffling of the models, I'm holding out hope that my original forecast should pan out for the holiday weekend. Hemispheric flow should become more amplified and progressive from the dateline in the WESTPAC eastward into the continental US by then, or at least starting by then. I am more confident though that areas south of I-70 in Kansas has seen the peak of the season and we're on the road to the summer blues. Model trends over the next few days should be more revealing what will likely transpire.

Rocky&family

 

[William Rayner]

Normally, we eschew June for our annual chase and take two weeks at the end of May. After a couple of years filled with disappointments, however, we decided to start this year's chase on May 31. After noting all the gloom expressed about the rest of May, perhaps our decision (made several months in advance, as usual) will put us in Amarillo for two weeks of hectic June chasing. Reservations are made and fingers are crossed.

 

[Jim Leonard]

There maybe some chasing hope just after Rocky's party, the latest ecmwf is holding out a carrot for us with late May chasecations afterall. The 8 to 10 day charts show a trough much like the May 4th through 6th type of setup evolving. Lets see if this new solution is something to be encouraged about in later runs. I trust the Euro model over the gfs as it has a much better track record especially in the past few months.

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

Ed Berry just posted this. If his assessment is correct, I'll be in weather heaven starting next weekend. Snow AND severe weather chasing. !!!


http://weatherclimatelink.blogspot.com/