Future of the Season Pt 3

[Mike Kovalchick]

Well, I head out from Michigan in a few days for my annual vacation chase-and starting to really wonder which direction do I head?

The latest 4 to 8 SPC outlook isnt' much help: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/ suggesting either a zonal flow across the Canadian border or big trough developing in the Four Corners..so that I means I can narrow my destination down to somewhere between Montana and the Texas Panhandle!

Ed Berry is still on board with the big trough idea and calling for exceptional outbreaks of severe weather to begin early next week: http://weatherclimatelink.blogspot.com/

 

[mark humpage]

Ed Berry is still on board with the big trough idea and calling for exceptional outbreaks of severe weather to begin early next week: http://weatherclimatelink.blogspot.com/

I read this slightly differently:-

"Flare-ups will continue across the west Pacific. I remain firm on my predictions of more strong troughs to impact the western USA starting next week".

"I think this situation may persist into June shifting northwest with the seasonal cycle. Probable weather ramifications include exceptional outbreaks of severe storms again across the Plains and early summertime heat across the Deep South and portions of the East".

For me it sounds like sevwx next week yes, but better fodder in June.

Oh decisions, decisions. Tough call when you have 5000 miles to fly. Do I take the risk and fly for next week or wait. I was in exactly the same situation last year. I waited and waited and waited and nothing occurred and never travelled in the end. I'll give the models a few more days and decide I think.

Mark

 

[Stan Rose]

Mark is right, Ed is giving himself wiggle room by being vague with the timing of the deep trough idea. Ive only got til Memorial day, so hopefully things will change for the better before then! As for direction to head, simple--don't decide until the last minute. Im resigned to some down days and northern excursions right now, just happy there's no real "death ridge" in place.

Mark, IMO (my horribly biased one, since i'm stuck with my days off) it's highly likely there will be at least a few good chasing days next week, where is another issue, but even if it's in the Dakotas i've had some of my best chases up north in May.
Take your chances in May! (well, ok, so i dont want to be the only one cruising around the Canadian border)There's no gaurantee what will come in June.

 

[Jim Leonard]

In looking at the Canadian and ecmwf I would say there will be at least a couple of good case days during the early to mid-week next week. I am much more encouraged with the flow pattern progged next week as it looks now. Im sure the gfs will come around to a more favorable scenario in the next few days as far as next weeks chase prospects. The ecmwf even shows a strong eastern U.S. ridge toward Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe which could help bring 70 degree dp's as far north as Kansas next week.

 

[Jim Bishop]

In the shorter term the Euro's got a setup or two for mid next week.

For the long term the Canadian Ensemble finally hopped on board with the European Ensemble idea of developing a West trough/Southeast ridge during the May 25 - 29 period. The change may occur a little slower than that, but I'm finally seeing the light here. The last few days in May into the first week in June may be active again.

This seems to fall into what Ed Berry says in his discussion. The models "don't have a clue", but I think now they are slowly getting on board. Cross your fingers.

 

[Joerg Kachelmann]

Yes, precip signals increase also for Topeka KS especially from the 22nd and including the typical severe wx potential extremes going up to 4 inches.

http://www.weather.us/new/showloc.php?type=ens&city=KS_TOPEKA

 

[Dan Robinson]

Moisture is likely going to be an issue with this first wave. Strong northerly flow at the surface is dive-bombing the Plains' dewpoints right now. I'm still a few notches below cautious optimism though. I have my doubts about the first trough up north, but hoping for something better after that.

 

[Brian Stertz]

I am still liking that first week of June as being the real deal severe wx setup based on the lurking Pacific jet and strong Pacific storms to move onshore by then. I have also caught on to that early-mid week trough next week as being a possible player for maybe significant severe wx beginning Monday in the High Plains and then spreading east and northeast by Tuesday. This may continue possibly into Wed. as the wave pulls out from the 4 Corners as the Euro suggests. Given the time of year, moisture is seldom a vexing problem unless the lower levels are strongly veered. Capping could be the issue if the ejection of the wave is more on a 220 degree trajectory versus 240 degree wave movement/ejection. Plenty of time to watch this play out in the models. I will have to work Monday 5/21...but have left Tue. and maybe Wed. open for some chase ops if this looks good to me to burn a vacation day or two.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

As of the 12Z runs, the models are FINALLY in reasonably good agreement for the period Sunday-Tuesday of next week- and as we all suspected, the trough in the West/Rockies area that the ECMWF has been forecasting all along is most likely going to verify in some fashion. The model consensus seems to be that the Monday-Tuesday timeframe is the most likely to be favorable for chasing in the Plains. The biggest question in my mind right now, as I stated in an earlier post, is the moisture quality. There is little doubt that northerly surface winds are going to penetrate all the way into at least the southern Gulf by Friday and Saturday, but by Sunday and Monday the surface high weakens and slips slowly off to the east- so there is a chance that decent Gulf flow will be in place by Monday, with a better probability of really good juice Tuesday. Right now I am not anticipating dew points as high as we had during the recent event, but perhaps low to mid 60s can be achieved in the NE/KS vcty.

After this next round of severe, the picture becomes much more muddy. The latest GFS ensemble mean suggests that a ridge will build up either along the west coast or in the Rockies later in the week, but the spread among ensemble members is quite large, so the bottom line right now that it is anybody's guess what may transpire for the Memorial Day weekend and into early June. Since that is when I was supposed to take my "regular" chase vacation, I may have to fly out again next week for yet another spot chase (and maybe go to Rocky's chase party).

 

[Warren Faidley]

The Mother of Forecasts

DDC just posted the "mother of forecasts" for next week.

Posted 5/15-PM

http://kamala.cod.edu/ks/latest.fxus63.KDDC.html

Warren

 

[Dan Cook]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_180l.gif

hmm...

 

[Chris Hayes]

Considering my first chase day will be Monday, and I'll be in Salina Kansas, I sure hope DDC is right about monday and tuesday on the high plains and in KS.

 

[Willoughby Owen]

You gotta like the agreement between the ECMWF and GFS, which has been pretty weak and vacant of late. Would be great to have a major tornadic outbreak whilst we're here from NZ. Here's hoping for that strong upper trough then.

 

[Chris Hayes]

I'm not sure why I look at the GFS. The GFS is out to lunch lately, and seems to not have a clue what is going on beyond today. The ECMWF is a much more consistant model. I just wish it came out more often than once a day

 

[Jim Leonard]

The ecmwf does come out twice in 24 hours about 3am and 3pm CDT.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500