Future of the Season Pt 3
- Thread starter Chris Hayes
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Dan Cook
EF5
Stan Rose
EF5
New 00Z EC is in...it agrees with the lousy gfs.
The 00z gfs is beyond depressing, for a 12 day block of chasing that i set aside, if the gfs verified, i might get one or two days of chasing. Guess i'll bite my nails and get ready for an alternate trip!
The 00z gfs is beyond depressing, for a 12 day block of chasing that i set aside, if the gfs verified, i might get one or two days of chasing. Guess i'll bite my nails and get ready for an alternate trip!
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Dan Cook
EF5
12z EC flips back to the trough.
Matthew Crowther
EF3
An interesting note about the 12Z GFS- look how the control run (the first chart in the upper left) is different
than all of the other members- it is weaker with the trough in the Rockies for next Tuesday. Therefore, despite the so-so
appearing control run, given the below maps (and add in the ECMWF) it is still looking like there will be some chaseable storms early next week. Moisture could still be an issue, but that will be hard to
judge until at least several more days pass.
Looking farther out in time, last nights GFS ensemble mean painted a rather grim picture for the Memorial Day weekend and beyond with a ridge in the West, but the 12Z run is back to being simply all over the place with a lot of spread. When the ensembles are flip-flopping like that, it means that the predictability of the 10-14 day period is even more impossible than normal
Ilya Neyman
EF1
The ECMWF has had a rather decent track record so far this season and has indicated a strong trough for several days now digging into the Rockies during the upcoming weekend and into early next week. The earlier runs of the GFS had the trough weaker and further north along the US/Canadian border providing for chase ops for the Dakotas and maybe only one or two of them at that. However, as the ECM held its own the GFS started trending toward it and began indicating that it too progged the trough to dig whole-heartedly south, although, further east than the ECM. Well, this morning's 12z run of the GFS forecasts good amplification provided by a strengthening jet on the backside of the trough diving down the PAC NW Sunday night-ish. In addition, it is now showing shortwave energy diving down the West Coast leading to the possible establishment of more of a long-wave slower solution trough setting up shop. Also, it is now toying with the idea of hanging back and then cutting off a piece of the trough in the form of a closed low over the 4 corners region by mid week, as the northern portion lifts off into Canada and the mean westerlies establish more of a wavy zonal flow across the northern tier.
What this means now is that in my opinion next week looks to be riddled with chase opportunities up and down the Plains, provided one would be willing to do a bit of driving. A quick breakdown of days and possible regions right now look to SD on Sunday, anywhere up and down the high Plains on Monday (with upper support generally favoring further north KS/CO/NE, south into the TX panhandle or even E NM Tuesday, and then W/SW TX for the remainder of the week. While cut-offs aren't usually the most thought of stormchase scenarios I think this time of year a cut-off low sitting in the right place would be preferred to either a blocking ridge, or an east coast trough. Besides, if a cut-off sets up just right you'll get cold upper levels, rising motions, decent jetstream winds, doable wind shear and the possibility of high Cape May days along with possible outflow boundaries, all in a certain region for several days.
This is all subject to change, but IMO next week looks quite chaseable.
What this means now is that in my opinion next week looks to be riddled with chase opportunities up and down the Plains, provided one would be willing to do a bit of driving. A quick breakdown of days and possible regions right now look to SD on Sunday, anywhere up and down the high Plains on Monday (with upper support generally favoring further north KS/CO/NE, south into the TX panhandle or even E NM Tuesday, and then W/SW TX for the remainder of the week. While cut-offs aren't usually the most thought of stormchase scenarios I think this time of year a cut-off low sitting in the right place would be preferred to either a blocking ridge, or an east coast trough. Besides, if a cut-off sets up just right you'll get cold upper levels, rising motions, decent jetstream winds, doable wind shear and the possibility of high Cape May days along with possible outflow boundaries, all in a certain region for several days.
This is all subject to change, but IMO next week looks quite chaseable.
Chris Hayes
EF5
The GFS is clearly out to lunch. If you look at 500mb at 324 hours, there's a nice trough over the Rockies. 12 hours later, at 336 hours, POOF! it's gone. The same happens at 348 and 360. It appears and disappears. Of course we all know what GFS stands for. This does give me some hope though. It appears there will be troughs of low pressure in the Pacific, that move in and cross the US the first week or so of June. The first day I can chase will be on Monday. I hope to see some of you out there. 
Matthew Crowther
EF3
I am cautiously optimistic regarding the chance of a tornado or two in the northern/central Plains for the period Sunday-Tuesday- the new GFS control has finally seemed to
get a clue regarding the slower/deeper trough scenario- but there are still a number of problems that could prevent this setup from really producing more than a few isolated tornadoes. The GFS suggests that the area of NW Nebraska and SW South Dakota as being a decent place to be in Monday - but it looks like a very small area east of the surface low will be the target and I think the current GFS run is most likely overdoing the moisture.
Tuesday is even more dicey as most of the ensembles and the control look like a surging cold front type of scenario- not optimal for tubes.
Now in order for me to fly out for just a two-three day excursion I would need two things to occur: A really good chance of tornadoes Sunday-Tuesday, and/or a really bleak looking pattern for the Memorial Day weekend and beyond. As per my thoughts above, Monday and Tuesday could be OK, but maybe no more than that.
Regarding the longer range, I was at least somewhat worried up until this point based on the GFS ensembles- but after reading Ed Berry's blog thoughts about a trough digging into the West in the last week of May/first week of June timeframe, I was holding out some real hope for a good pattern for at least part of that period. Now the GFS ensembles are perhaps beginning to come around to that more optimistic scenario.
Compare this GFS ensemble mean from the 18Z run to the previous run for the same time period:
Note first how the control run has really changed for the better with strong flow blasting into the NW- I do not really believe that any more than when it had a strong ridge, but it is interesting nonetheless. More importantly, the mean has shifted to where the positive height anomaly is farther east, and the flow across the Pacific looks a lot more coherent and fast zonal- just what Ed was forecasting using his techniques. This would eventually result in SW or WSW flow over at least the NW High Plains and some decent or better chase opportunities beginning by maybe the M.D. weekend.
The upshot of all this is that now I am leaning towards saving time money and energy by not coming out to chase this next trough, but waiting and hoping that the farther out period will end up being productive. That could change based on later model data.
If I do not come out the main negative would be missing the chase picnic.....
get a clue regarding the slower/deeper trough scenario- but there are still a number of problems that could prevent this setup from really producing more than a few isolated tornadoes. The GFS suggests that the area of NW Nebraska and SW South Dakota as being a decent place to be in Monday - but it looks like a very small area east of the surface low will be the target and I think the current GFS run is most likely overdoing the moisture.
Tuesday is even more dicey as most of the ensembles and the control look like a surging cold front type of scenario- not optimal for tubes.
Now in order for me to fly out for just a two-three day excursion I would need two things to occur: A really good chance of tornadoes Sunday-Tuesday, and/or a really bleak looking pattern for the Memorial Day weekend and beyond. As per my thoughts above, Monday and Tuesday could be OK, but maybe no more than that.
Regarding the longer range, I was at least somewhat worried up until this point based on the GFS ensembles- but after reading Ed Berry's blog thoughts about a trough digging into the West in the last week of May/first week of June timeframe, I was holding out some real hope for a good pattern for at least part of that period. Now the GFS ensembles are perhaps beginning to come around to that more optimistic scenario.
Compare this GFS ensemble mean from the 18Z run to the previous run for the same time period:
Note first how the control run has really changed for the better with strong flow blasting into the NW- I do not really believe that any more than when it had a strong ridge, but it is interesting nonetheless. More importantly, the mean has shifted to where the positive height anomaly is farther east, and the flow across the Pacific looks a lot more coherent and fast zonal- just what Ed was forecasting using his techniques. This would eventually result in SW or WSW flow over at least the NW High Plains and some decent or better chase opportunities beginning by maybe the M.D. weekend.
The upshot of all this is that now I am leaning towards saving time money and energy by not coming out to chase this next trough, but waiting and hoping that the farther out period will end up being productive. That could change based on later model data.
If I do not come out the main negative would be missing the chase picnic.....
Joe Nield
EF5
I'm getting to the point where I hate the 6z and 18z runs. Give me a run with real upper air data in it before I start getting too excited. My personal evidence is all anecdotal, of course, but they seem far more likely to be out to lunch than the 12z and 00z.
In any case, I'm somewhat optimistic for a chase day or two early next week to start our trip, then things don't look very promising through at least the end of next week. That's ok, though, because I need to get the heck out of Indiana for awhile.
Joerg Kachelmann
EF1
- Joined
- Jan 24, 2006
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It actually comes out twice a day and the ensemble solutions for every state capital on www.weather.us are thus updated twice a day. If you folks are interested in Ensembles for more places in the chasing area or more parameters let me know.
Joerg Kachelmann
EF1
- Joined
- Jan 24, 2006
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Sorry, this was a late answer to #104, admins are invited to delete if no wish for more content by them.
Matthew Crowther
EF3
I have tried to remain optimistic regarding the pattern for the last week in May and the first week in June- but aside from the one run of the GFS ensembles that I posted about above, I am really having a hard time seeing much hope for a strong western trough, at least for the period through
June 1st. The ensemble means for the past several runs keep high heights over the west through the entire period- with only a few members showing somewhat more troughiness. The EC has been lukewarm on this as well. The main culprits seem to be: persistent low heights in the Gulf of Alaska, and a general lifting of the flow/jet into a summer-like configuration. I am afraid that this may be the death knell of the southern Plains season, and after Tuesday, even the central Plains may not have much. I have a distinct feeling that I will be spending a lot of time in Montana, ND and northern MN, and I will be bringing my passport for some possible Canadian intercepts.
I notice that Ed Berry has not posted on his blog since Monday- I wonder if he will change his tune regarding a prololonged period of strong western troughing....I tried and tried to buy in, but right now I just do not see it. I have a feeling that this will be a repeat of 1993 in one sense- a lot of action up until early May, then not much thereafter. At least I will not get skunked like last year.
So maybe I will be coming out after all for Monday-Tuesday....despite the aforementioned problems with that system, pure pattern recognition says that it looks a heck of a lot better than anything I am seeing in the medium-range progs right now.
June 1st. The ensemble means for the past several runs keep high heights over the west through the entire period- with only a few members showing somewhat more troughiness. The EC has been lukewarm on this as well. The main culprits seem to be: persistent low heights in the Gulf of Alaska, and a general lifting of the flow/jet into a summer-like configuration. I am afraid that this may be the death knell of the southern Plains season, and after Tuesday, even the central Plains may not have much. I have a distinct feeling that I will be spending a lot of time in Montana, ND and northern MN, and I will be bringing my passport for some possible Canadian intercepts.
I notice that Ed Berry has not posted on his blog since Monday- I wonder if he will change his tune regarding a prololonged period of strong western troughing....I tried and tried to buy in, but right now I just do not see it. I have a feeling that this will be a repeat of 1993 in one sense- a lot of action up until early May, then not much thereafter. At least I will not get skunked like last year.
So maybe I will be coming out after all for Monday-Tuesday....despite the aforementioned problems with that system, pure pattern recognition says that it looks a heck of a lot better than anything I am seeing in the medium-range progs right now.
Caleb Kimbrough
Yay for Tuesday!
After being so active for a long time it feels like I haven't chased a storm in two years, crap. Hopefully we end up with a decent show early next week so we have something to hold us off until June.
After being so active for a long time it feels like I haven't chased a storm in two years, crap. Hopefully we end up with a decent show early next week so we have something to hold us off until June.
Ilya Neyman
EF1
Latest several runs of the GFS are actually showing the possibility of several active periods nevertheless, will get to that in a second but meanwhile I am becoming increasingly interested in the 4-6 day period. Latest runs are coming in with much better low-mid level flow for Monday-Tuesday in the southern Plains region, and where last night the attention for this region was centered on Tuesday it is looking more and more possible that Monday may be a decent shot, at least with regards to distance/potential (for us southern Plains based chasers).
Progs have been consistent in ejecting a lead shortwave across the southern region of the mean trough Monday afternoon/evening, with one important shortcoming -- winds. Taking a look at this morning's 12z runs both the NAM and the GFS are in remarkable agreement in avecting a moistening boundary layer airmass underneath a strengthening 30-35kt 850 LLJ across the TX panhandle region by 00z Tuesday (Monday evening). 700 flow picks up to around 25-35 kts out of the SW-WSW and 500mb flow is now forecasted up to possibly as high as 30-35kts (plenty sufficient) out of the west, along with a sizeable shortwave centered right around Amarillo. There is a big weakness as far as 300mb flow, however, as that area is pretty light and tranquil...but, and maybe the more experienced synopticians may be able to shed some light on this matter...if a high cape and strongly sheared low-mid level environment sets up the atmosphere may be able to make do with everything below 300. One thing looks certain, directional shear looks great and I have seen events in the past with even weak speed shear turn impressive with the directional element. NE-SD look decent as well, with perhaps the northern emphasis there.
Tuesday looked more impressive on last night's 00z run featuring sfc low dryline/cold front further north than earlier runs and great moisture, shear and a synoptic setup for the TX panhandle, W/NW OK and SW KS but this AM's 12z run is a little less "ideal", nevertheless still similar.
Wednesday the focus could shift south to south-central TX with a southward moving cold front, perhaps interacting with very right moisture, high CAPE and sufficient wind shear to be watched in that region.
Heading toward Memorial Day if the broad trough hangs back far enough west embedded ripples in the W-WNW flow aloft (which will be rather strong) can combine with another resurgence in low-level return flow to setup high CAPE, moderate wind shear setups, perhaps mixed in with fronts/outflow boundaries for a couple setups in the N TX, OK, KS vicinity around the Memorial Day weekend. This time of year it does not take much to set off impressive storms, and the basic setups to look for are a bit different from those seen earlier in the season.
I remain pretty impressed with the prospects of more chaseable events in the next week or two.
Progs have been consistent in ejecting a lead shortwave across the southern region of the mean trough Monday afternoon/evening, with one important shortcoming -- winds. Taking a look at this morning's 12z runs both the NAM and the GFS are in remarkable agreement in avecting a moistening boundary layer airmass underneath a strengthening 30-35kt 850 LLJ across the TX panhandle region by 00z Tuesday (Monday evening). 700 flow picks up to around 25-35 kts out of the SW-WSW and 500mb flow is now forecasted up to possibly as high as 30-35kts (plenty sufficient) out of the west, along with a sizeable shortwave centered right around Amarillo. There is a big weakness as far as 300mb flow, however, as that area is pretty light and tranquil...but, and maybe the more experienced synopticians may be able to shed some light on this matter...if a high cape and strongly sheared low-mid level environment sets up the atmosphere may be able to make do with everything below 300. One thing looks certain, directional shear looks great and I have seen events in the past with even weak speed shear turn impressive with the directional element. NE-SD look decent as well, with perhaps the northern emphasis there.
Tuesday looked more impressive on last night's 00z run featuring sfc low dryline/cold front further north than earlier runs and great moisture, shear and a synoptic setup for the TX panhandle, W/NW OK and SW KS but this AM's 12z run is a little less "ideal", nevertheless still similar.
Wednesday the focus could shift south to south-central TX with a southward moving cold front, perhaps interacting with very right moisture, high CAPE and sufficient wind shear to be watched in that region.
Heading toward Memorial Day if the broad trough hangs back far enough west embedded ripples in the W-WNW flow aloft (which will be rather strong) can combine with another resurgence in low-level return flow to setup high CAPE, moderate wind shear setups, perhaps mixed in with fronts/outflow boundaries for a couple setups in the N TX, OK, KS vicinity around the Memorial Day weekend. This time of year it does not take much to set off impressive storms, and the basic setups to look for are a bit different from those seen earlier in the season.
I remain pretty impressed with the prospects of more chaseable events in the next week or two.
Rocky Rascovich
EF4
Ed Berry has just posted his update and I'll let you read all the details...
http://weatherclimatelink.blogspot.com/
Picnic is definitely on for tomorrow, go to Announcements header for the official update... anyway, that should tell you not much will happen in this part of the country. My big forecast post from a couple of weeks back still stands for the most part... I'm thinking that the big western trough with attendant surface and mid level waves will still be a reality, but perhaps not ontil Memorial Day and the week after. I expect still some great upslope events for CO.&WY for June.. so don't climb in those coffins yet.
More soon. See you tomorrow if you can make it.
Rocky&family
http://weatherclimatelink.blogspot.com/
Picnic is definitely on for tomorrow, go to Announcements header for the official update... anyway, that should tell you not much will happen in this part of the country. My big forecast post from a couple of weeks back still stands for the most part... I'm thinking that the big western trough with attendant surface and mid level waves will still be a reality, but perhaps not ontil Memorial Day and the week after. I expect still some great upslope events for CO.&WY for June.. so don't climb in those coffins yet.
More soon. See you tomorrow if you can make it.
Rocky&family
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