Skip Talbot
EF5
What about Memorial Day? The GFS is indicating 3000 JK/g in Nebraska with a low level jet and some energy at the 500 mb level. Let's not abandon the rest of the season yet.
Future of the Season Pt 3
- Thread starter Chris Hayes
- Start date
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Darren Addy
EF5
Joel,
June is, historically, the biggest month of the year for tornadoes in Nebraska. I think you'll be fine. Just get off the plane from the airport, drive to Blair, and stake out the Hollingshead residence. Follow the black Mustang (but look casual).
Derek Weston
EF5
I agree with those above stating that the season certainly isn't over yet.
The top tornado month for the upper plains + midwest is generaly June.
This thread has taught me that long-range -- I'll define as week + -- models *can* give you a glimpse of the future, but, certainly are not reliable enough to be taken as anything near what we might consider the 'truth.' Their level of flip-flopping would make most politicians blush.
The top tornado month for the upper plains + midwest is generaly June.
This thread has taught me that long-range -- I'll define as week + -- models *can* give you a glimpse of the future, but, certainly are not reliable enough to be taken as anything near what we might consider the 'truth.' Their level of flip-flopping would make most politicians blush.
Dan Robinson
It all comes down to perspective, where you live, and how much money you have to spend on this leisure activity.
Northwest/westerly flow aloft can certainly produce severe weather and supercells, but the success rate of NW flow chasing is significantly less than SW flow chasing. In other words, when I see a big trough coming in with three days of 50Kts+ SW flow at 500mb over the dryline, then I know that is a good time for me to drive 1,200 miles to get to the Plains to chase for a few days. I have a good chance of seeing a tornado in that type of setup.
Northwest flow, however, is not normally something I'm going to drive 1,500 miles to get to the northern Plains to chase, as my chances for good storms and tornadoes are significantly less. If I want squall lines, shelf clouds and lightning with the off-chance of a tornado, then I can get that in Ohio if that's what I want (and I probably will do that this summer as always).
Yes, there have been some good NW flow events as Mike H's photos can attest to. But how many NW flow chase days on average do you need to get those good events? A lot more than for SW flow.
When I say 'my season is over' it's because I'm not driving to North Dakota for a couple of days of NW flow chasing, and I'm not going to be able to chase Illinois 25 times to get the one or two tornado events they'll get in July and August.
Bottom line is that nothing compares to the SW flow regime in the Great Plains when it comes to realistic chances of seeing tornadoes, particularly for those of us who live a thousand miles from the Plains and/or don't have an unlimited chase budget to go after every little setup that comes along.
For those who either live on the Plains or have unlimited chase funds, I can see why one would keep after things despite the lack of NW flow.
It's all about the cost vs risk of busting ratio. For SW flow, it's small enough that makes a long-distance chase worth it.
All that said, the models do not show any sign of a strong SW flow pattern over the Great Plains for as long as we can see now. The models have been consistent and in agreement about this general pattern, which makes it more believable. In a nutshell, the strong indication of no good SW flow pattern through June 6 makes me say that the peak tornado season for 2007, and traditional chase season, may be coming to a close.
Does this mean I won't chase Illinois next month if something comes up? Of course not - but as far as taking a trip to Texas or Kansas in the next few weeks, I don't see that happening.
Northwest/westerly flow aloft can certainly produce severe weather and supercells, but the success rate of NW flow chasing is significantly less than SW flow chasing. In other words, when I see a big trough coming in with three days of 50Kts+ SW flow at 500mb over the dryline, then I know that is a good time for me to drive 1,200 miles to get to the Plains to chase for a few days. I have a good chance of seeing a tornado in that type of setup.
Northwest flow, however, is not normally something I'm going to drive 1,500 miles to get to the northern Plains to chase, as my chances for good storms and tornadoes are significantly less. If I want squall lines, shelf clouds and lightning with the off-chance of a tornado, then I can get that in Ohio if that's what I want (and I probably will do that this summer as always).
Yes, there have been some good NW flow events as Mike H's photos can attest to. But how many NW flow chase days on average do you need to get those good events? A lot more than for SW flow.
When I say 'my season is over' it's because I'm not driving to North Dakota for a couple of days of NW flow chasing, and I'm not going to be able to chase Illinois 25 times to get the one or two tornado events they'll get in July and August.
Bottom line is that nothing compares to the SW flow regime in the Great Plains when it comes to realistic chances of seeing tornadoes, particularly for those of us who live a thousand miles from the Plains and/or don't have an unlimited chase budget to go after every little setup that comes along.
For those who either live on the Plains or have unlimited chase funds, I can see why one would keep after things despite the lack of NW flow.
It's all about the cost vs risk of busting ratio. For SW flow, it's small enough that makes a long-distance chase worth it.
All that said, the models do not show any sign of a strong SW flow pattern over the Great Plains for as long as we can see now. The models have been consistent and in agreement about this general pattern, which makes it more believable. In a nutshell, the strong indication of no good SW flow pattern through June 6 makes me say that the peak tornado season for 2007, and traditional chase season, may be coming to a close.
Does this mean I won't chase Illinois next month if something comes up? Of course not - but as far as taking a trip to Texas or Kansas in the next few weeks, I don't see that happening.
Matthew Crowther
EF3
I agree that there is no sign right now of a classic deep trough in the West resuulting in a SW flow situation for the Plains- but there are some indications of a few westerly or even WSW flow setups. If the surface flow is SE, then that creates some very good shear- and the success rate is maybe not as high as a 230degree 500mb flow- but can be productive nonetheless. So right now, unless the models change radically, I will be leaving for a 1-3 day chase in the Dakotas and perhaps Nebraska for Sunday, Monday and maybe even Tuesday. After that it looks like a complete shutdown until early June- but after that I see a pretty good chance of more westerly or WSW flow coming back into the High Plains- (I do not buy the 00Z GFS with its extreme amplification of the western Ridge) and I am out until June 9th. During the down period there will be plenty to see, this is my vacation regardless of the presence or absence of storms- lots of national parks etc to visit.
Dan Robinson
If the GFS is correct, we'll be chasing in North Carolina the first week of June. That trough it is developing mid-continent and moving east looks like a monster. Now if THAT shifts half a continent westward, we'll be in business in the Plains. Either way, if it is as deep as it is showing now, I'll try to be wherever it sets up, even if it is in the mountains. Might as well try something different and look for the silver lining.
Michael O'Keeffe
I agree with Skip. The SPC has picked up on the situation as well. I checked the GFS and I do not see a eastern trough during that period. Though there isn't a huge trough in the Plains either there still is one. So I wouldn't get so down yet. The SPC mentioned vigorious supercell development over a large part of the N Plains from N KS to E MT and the Dakotas.
Mike Hollingshead
For what it is worth, the northwest flow events seem to only have the better odds come summer/July or later. By then moisture is often abundant through the northern plains(just ask a SD mosquito). With these the sfc flow with them is often fairly weak, which won't blast all the moisture far away after the event, and before others.
As for just follow the black Mustang, lol, boy I sure wouldn't these last couple years.
Here's hoping to Monday for now. I'll be glad to be further away from the higher population areas, though I'm sure there will still be hoardes on whatever happens, including myself, taking up space. I could sure handle a good tornado in daylight at this point. Jinx.
As for just follow the black Mustang, lol, boy I sure wouldn't these last couple years.
Here's hoping to Monday for now. I'll be glad to be further away from the higher population areas, though I'm sure there will still be hoardes on whatever happens, including myself, taking up space. I could sure handle a good tornado in daylight at this point. Jinx.
Mark Farnik
EF5
After over a month of extremely boring, largely non-severe weather in northeastern Colorado, the SPC's Day 4-5 outlook makes me quite excited. Seems like some part of Colorado always gets hit with a severe wx outbreak during the course of Memorial Day weekend almost every year. So hopefully this will pan out and there will be a nice severe wx or maybe even tornado outbreak in my own backyard. And if I can convince my parents I won't punch any hail cores, I might be able to borrow Mom's car and pay a visit to western Nebraska, where the setup looks most favorable attm. And it's only a 120 mile jaunt to Ogallala, which I can make in just over two hours.
If the timing of the arrival of that short wave impulse is right, with the strong instability and developing LLJ, Monday could be a great chase day on the western High Plains...
If the timing of the arrival of that short wave impulse is right, with the strong instability and developing LLJ, Monday could be a great chase day on the western High Plains...
Andrew Pritchard
EF5
I think if you go back and read the first 10 pages of this thread and look at what we have had this week it should give you a decent idea of just how much you should be relying on the long term models right now. And hey, southern plains chasers, you HUSH. Maybe you should actually drive a long haul to a setup like all of us out of staters have to do for most of the good events..
Just because the tornado season is over in Texas and Oklahoma doesn't mean it's over everywhere. It's just beginning in a lot of places. Places with better road networks and terrain too (thinks back to yesterday)
Just because the tornado season is over in Texas and Oklahoma doesn't mean it's over everywhere. It's just beginning in a lot of places. Places with better road networks and terrain too (thinks back to yesterday)
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John Hudson
EF4
And hey, southern plains chasers, you HUSH. Maybe you should actually drive a long haul to a setup like all of us out of staters have to do for most of the good events..
I'll definitely second that one. Every once in a while, you guys in TX, OK and KS oughta have to travel far enough to actually warm the engine up to catch the juicy setups.
Can't actually believe there are people down there who have never actually seen a tornado.
John
VE4 JTH
Rob Satkus
EF2
I'll definitely second that one. Every once in a while, you guys in TX, OK and KS oughta have to travel far enough to actually warm the engine up to catch the juicy setups.
Can't actually believe there are people down there who have never actually seen a tornado.
John
VE4 JTH
Uh....do 2005/2006 ring a bell?
RS
Andrew Pritchard
EF5
Haha well, in 2006 when you guys out there were mad at a terrible year... Illinois was breaking it's yearly tornado record.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
As soon as we can get rid of this pesky cold air mass and the dp's get back into the 60's, eastern/NE Colorado and nearby areas will be back in the mix for isolated storms moving off the higher terrain. NCEP is showing NW flow setting up through the end of May into the first week in June. The sooner the better. I think we may have seen the last of the major west coast systems, but you never know.
Warren
Warren
Chris Hayes
EF5
I know its 10 days out, but the GFS is starting to show a trough developing and moving into the plains around June 5 or 6 as well as the eastern coast trough moving off the northeast Atlanic Seaboard. It's shown this a few runs of the GFS now, wo it's something to look forward to. We'll still be out here around that time, so there's hope at the end of the tunnel.
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