Future of the Season Pt 3

[beaudodson]

Apparently the GFS is worthless these days...past day seven.

http://www.stormvista.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=1377

See that thread for verification. I guess the latest "fix" made the model worse.

 

[Martin Kucera]

Second week in June or so has been quite nice as far back as I can remember. Some of the events that stand out -
Manchester, SD - 06/24/2003
NW Iowa - 06/11/2004
Mulvane, KS - 06/12/2004
Amarillo, TX - 06/21/2004
Kadoka, SD - 06/07/2005
Treggo Cty, KS - 06/09/2005
Kent County, TX - 06/12/2005
Burlington, CO - 06/10/2006
And of course, the great mothership supercells rolling across E Colorado during early June...
Still a lot to look forward to, IMHO.

 

[Doug Lee]

Chris, you may want to edit your post, unless you're talking about MAY 2008! Now that would be some kinda long-range forecast, especially if it verifies!

I remember a couple of tornadoes that hit Drumright and Tulsa OK on June 14, 1974, a little more than a week before I joined the National Guard. That event facotored in my decision to join, becase the NG often helps out after tornadoes, hurricanes, etc.

My observation is that storm season never really ends, it justs moves around, and sometimes it goes on vacation, but it always comes back.

 

[Ilya Neyman]

As Warren mentioned E-NE CO may have a chance per latest GFS next Tuesday-ish (still 4+ days out though) as a significant and semi-closed upper trough digs across the Rockies, possibly overspreading a SEward moving cool front with W/SW flow associated with the jet. As it stands right now this could setup an E/NE upslope flow toward the Front Range underneath strong mid-level flow to create an environment possibly conducive for supercells in this region. This is a big maybe attm.

 

[Marko Korosec]

Hey guys, I'd need some opinions of the next 6-7 days pattern across the Plains. My flight for EU is scheduled for tomorrow afternoon, but looking at the maps for Mon & Tue it pushes me into a lil' dilemma what to do. I have a chance to extend my work-vacations for another week but it of course takes some responsibillities besides like changing flight ticket, convenience my boss about a delay arrival, etc.

So, how does the pattern look for you guys? It is worth to stay for another week and take a risk about my work or not? Does the pattern seems like a small outbreak to you (maybe compared to May 22nd and 23th) or looks like we might be playing only with SLGT and marginal stuff there? Especially Tuesday looks quite favorable setup on GFS.

Thanks, any thoughts would be much appreciated!

 

[bill mudd]

Marko,
personally Ive opted to avoid the 3 day weekend RUSH with over booked/priced motels....and alot of holiday travelers

maybe its a mistake (I know tuesday has some attraction) but Im sitting tight till june 3rd thru june whenever....until my (mother) ship comes in

because Colorado in JUNE never dissapoints (for sups & hail at least)

--------- either way good luck to all--------------

 

[Bob Schafer]

Hey, Marko, just look at the 500mb trough (on the GFS) slowly making its way across the country all next week. It's likely that Tue through Sat will offer chase opportunities, starting in the Dakotas and across to MO/IL (or whatever) by Sat.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I tried to look at the latest gfs and ecmwf for June and all I got was a big picture of a crapper. Hmmm. Doesn't look like one will have to worry about using up a whole lot of gas anyway...unless you are a forced chaser out here on vacation. Maybe late June can squeeze something out(hopefully not into that toliet).

 

[Dan Robinson]

Yep - I've thrown in the towel for 2007. I spent the vast majority of my chasing funds during the April 22-May 7 period, and I'm not ready to blow every last cent I have on lots of low-probability setups in areas farther away than I want to go.

The good news for me is that I'm getting old enough that years seem to fly by nowadays. It will be May 2008 in no time.

 

[Chris Hayes]

I havent given up on the plains yet. I have at least 2 more weeks out here on the plains. With how bad computer models are, especially the GFS I dont rely on what they have to say that much. The ECMWF, though it doesnt paint a pretty picture for the next week is a little more reliable, but it only goes out 7 days. Only time will tell what the rest of the season has in store for us. Who knows, 2 weeks from now there could be another event similar to June 23, 2003. Only time will tell, and I'm gonna try and remain optimistic.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

If you're a fan of the bow echo, you're time is on the way

 

[John MacKay]

I may be one of the travelers cancelling a vacation that I didn't have planned yet. Gas prices have diverted my plans, so now I'll fly a couple of times to California and spend almost as much as one chase vacation to Nebraska or the Dakotas. Denver is always the low cost option in June/July. The monsoon should come in 4-6 weeks (hopefully).

I told my family last weekend I was not chasing this year due to gas prices. I may forget, though, and do it anyway. My May vacation (not storm chase-driven, but graduation, baseball, and wedding-driven) did yield some nice May weather, and it was greener than any May I've seen in recent years. My recent vacation, though, was the reason I didn't go chase the May 4-5 stuff. I shouldn't have that to worry about next year.

 

[joel ewing]

My chase partner Doren Berge and I will be flying into Omaha on June 1st. He's out until the 10th, and I'm out until I decide to come home. Yeah, I'm always mind-f'n myself and being a gloomy jerk prior to chase blastoff...but every year I manage to score really good a time or two. So....I'm in for a penny....in for a pound. Bring it on!

 

[Warren Faidley]

Joel: I've been using the NCEP Ensembles to forcast my 7 days (+) trips and it's worked well this year, with a couple of burps. It looks like typical NW flow events in the cental plains through at least the first week in June. This means eastern Colorado, sw Kansas and western Texas. Events within NW flow are harder to predict, and require waiting in potential locations for days on end, but it can pay off. Towards the end of the NCEP forecast period (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/spag_f240_nh.html) the ensembles are hinting of a west coast system that might set-up sw flow.

Warren

 

[joel ewing]

Oh, thanks Warren! You know we sure wish to hook up with you this season as always. Yes, NW flow has always been kind to me. June 9 '03 O'Neill, Nebr. / June 10th Monster nader above Julesburg in Nebraska / June 10th '06 was a big score for I think me only on the northern end of a west Nebraska panhandle squall line...that tornadoed off and on for a good hour and a half. So...I'm not so fearful of NW flow. What worries me currently is the dews above the north Kansas border with Nebraska are only in the high 40's, and with perhaps another cold front in a few days....geez, I guess we'll be visiting the largest hand-dug well and the biggest ball of twine soon.
I'm really hoping you're gonna stick it out for a while longer, W-.