Future of the Season Pt 3

[Brian Stertz]

Yes the setup has me geared up to chase from Wed. 6/6 on into that weekend and have received time-off for that period thank goodness. Of all the days, it looks like Thur. 6/7 has serious outbreak potential. Time to see if that trend continues...

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

I also have been monitoring the trends of the extended range models, the consitency of the models plotting a favorable setup by the middle of next week has been enough for me to inform work that I may not be able to make it in towards the middle through the end of next week

 

[Chris Hayes]

I cant believe I'm saying this, but I pray the GFS is right, and the ECMWF is wrong. The ECMWF has a weaker trough in place, with the deepest part of it over ND. The GFS meanwhile has tornados written all over it for wed and thurs.

 

[Chris Wilburn]

I also agree that it looks very good for Wed. and Thurs. and possibly even the first part of the weekend IF the GFS can verify. One thing I did notice on the models, esp. Wed is the GFS doesn't break out precip and 850mb temps and surface temps are projected to be very warm. Thursday isn't as bad and looks like a possibly really nice chase day. Regardless I really like the forecasted sw 500mb flow that the GFS is putting out for Wed-Fri. at least and possible a few more days, but I have not looked past the 180 hour mark at this time. If the GFS verifies there will be plenty of moisture, instability and nice sw 500mb flow to work with. At least it is something for us to look forward to as more model runs come out. Lets hope the GFS verifies, esp. for us more southern chasers instead of the ECMWF that Chris mentioned above.

 

[Ken Johnson]

I don't know if anybody else has this problem, but every time there's a good set up, I can't go. Something always comes up. 5-4 and 5-5, I was off work at my main job, but couldn't go do to other obligations. Earlier in the year, same thing happened when tornadoes rocked the wester high plains. Nothing different with the up coming event. I have to work. Can't go. It makes me sick... EVERY time, I have to arm chair it!!! If it would have happended last week or the week after next, I would be in good shape. But NOPE, it always happens on the days I have to work or have something else I can't get out of...
This will likely be a very good event if cap can be breached. Several days away and plenty of time to watch..

 

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

It sure is nice to see some decent 500mb winds forecasted for south of Nebraska again. Definitely the best looking setup for the Southern Plains in a good couple weeks. I wish I hadnt looked at the models so soon because now its gonna make this next week twice as long. I have a few concerns about the setup, like the precip or lack there of, but at 100+ hr it is still way too far out. If I can just bag one June tornado it will cap off a great season and make the 5th straight month of seeing atleast one tornado. After seeing nothing for the past 2 years, 07 has treated me well.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

0z gfs sort of hosed both days. Wednesday looks capped, and Thrusday....blah! I'd guess it'll work itself out to maybe something better by then. It at least looks a lot better than a massive east coast trough, that's all I know at this point.

 

[Chris Hayes]

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but according to the 06z GFS, there seems to be enough room for storms to form west of the CAP along the dryline and closer to the 500mb low across western/central KS and NE.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I also noticed that to Chris. I wouldn't worry about this yet. We are still 5-6 days out and anything can happen, most likely we will see some sort of severe weather outbreak. The real question is where?

 

[Warren Faidley]

Someone correct me if I am wrong.... but the history of the GFS this season is to flip flop a few times with a "favorable solution" a "let down" then a final solution slower and digging more to the south with violent weather.

Warren

 

[Chris Hayes]

Hi, Warren. I hope you're right about that. I havent kept an ey on the GFS' flip flops this spring, but I hope you're right about that.

 

[Dave Lewison]

Someone correct me if I am wrong.... but the history of the GFS this season is to flip flop a few times with a "favorable solution" a "let down" then a final solution slower and digging more to the south with violent weather.

Warren

Absolutely....I've noticed this on at least the past 2 systems. Last week, the GFS was the only model to latch onto the slower, more amplified trough that eventually got cut off and meandered across the US. I remember the ECMWF was forecasting a much shallower and faster trough zip across the dakotas. But now they seem to have switched. The 12Z GFS is *incredibly* fast with the upcoming mid-week trough. How can a trough dig into Nevada and then be in eastern KS just ONE DAY later?? I hope it's out to lunch on this run. The ECMWF solution seems to be slower as of the 00Z run....will see what the 12Z brings.

 

[Dick McGowan]

Be nice if everything the GFS was advertising right now stayed..... (12z GFS)

http://www.weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfsUS_500_spd_108.gif
http://www.weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfsUS_850_dewp_108.gif

Edit: 700 and 850 temps are pretty warm, but I'd probably gamble if this held!

 

[Chris Hayes]

18z run of the GFS has the 500mb low just coming in onto the coast on tuesday, then 24 hours later it's about half way across the plains. GFS seems out to lunch with the speed of the system. Keep the system as strong as it is, but slowe it down to where we can have 2 days of sever weather.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Just your posts are making me crazy... let alone looking at the stupid models myself. I quit checking the gfs every single run a LONG time ago. We have 21 pages of "now it says this!" "now it says outbreak" "crap, no more chasing" "aaaah gas prices!!"

I'll worry about it when I can either come in here and read consecutive posts saying the models have remained the same, or when it's actually close enough to begin worrying about a target area. Til then, have fun pulling your hair out guys!