Future of the Season Pt 3

[Bob Schafer]

Off-topic and rightfully subject to deletion, but do we HAVE to have the disclaimer in two of three forecast posts that "Well, it's a long way off, so...."???? I get tired of reading, over and over again, that forecasts will change as the event nears. I understand that already, for cripes sake, and so does everyone else. I don't mean to pick on anyone specifically. There are a lot of culprits.

 

[Jim Cross]

The middle of next week is starting to look very interesting.The models vary but looks like a pretty good severe outbreak setting up.The spc 4-8 day outlook mentioned it as well.And for those of you who like to read Ed Berry's articles its very interesting what his lastest post says.

 

[Chris Hayes]

You beat me to it, Jim. I read the 4-8 day outlook and was looking at the GFS and ECMWF. It's a week away, but it is looking interesting for next week. With some luck we can slow the trough down and have 2-4 days of severe weather. Or with even better luck get another trough coming in a few days later

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I noticed this trend for a while and it has been quite consistant. It also has been slowing this system down. Maybe a June 9-12, 2004 type of severe weather event. Hopefully it will stay consistant especially since the SPC is starting to metion it.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Can someone post a link to the model that is showing this type of dramatic change in the 8-9 day time frame? I have looked over both the 240 hr. NCEP and the 216 hr. ECMWF models and they only show a ridge or flat northern flow for that time frame.

Thanks in advance:

Warren

 

[Skip Talbot]

Can somedone post a link to the model that is showing this type of dramatic change in the 8-9 day time frame? I have looked over both the 240 hr. NCEP and the 216 hr. ECMWF models and they only show a ridge or flat northern flow for that time frame.

Thanks in advance:

Warren

This morning's 12z GFS is dramatically different than last night's 0z run for that time frame. Last night there was a shallow trough in the northern plains and now there is a huge ridge extending into Canada. That, as we all know, is why we don't put too much faith in the models at that range.

 

[Chris Hayes]

The 00z run of the ECMWF starts showing a trough coming into the west coast on Day 7. FWIW I dont buy the GFS' solution of bringing a huge trough into the east coast as it CONSTANTLY predicts. Have there been troughs? Yes, but absolutely nothing like it wants to be in there.

 

[Gabe Garfield]

I think that, at this point, there isn't any real indication that a signficant severe weather outbreak will occur next week. However, it should be noted that the ensemble forecast for next week shows very little agreement. IMO, that is actually a good thing (considering the awful upper-air pattern of late). With little consensus, it is at least possible that a severe weather event could be in the cards for next week. Here's hoping...

Gabe

 

[Bill Hark]

Can someone post a link to the model that is showing this type of dramatic change in the 8-9 day time frame? I have looked over both the 240 hr. NCEP and the 216 hr. ECMWF models and they only show a ridge or flat northern flow for that time frame.

Thanks in advance:

Warren

Warren, this is the link I use for very long range GFS forecasts (or "wishcasts.")

http://www.idonthaveawebpage.com/

Is that what you were looking for?

Bill Hark

 

[Warren Faidley]

Thanks Bill, good site.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Ahhh, gotta love the 0z gfs for next Thursday. Maybe a chase east of the high plains a ways??? That'd be a nice change.

Edit: And Wednesday lol. Missed that 986 sfc low sitting out there with flow aloft just coming out onto the plains. It'd be nice if none of this changes.

 

[Caleb Kimbrough]

Next week sure does look tasty at the moment. Mmmmm...I could just pour some barbecue sauce all over that SPC 4-8 outlook and mmmmmmmmm.

Caleb

 

[Ben Prusia]

I have gotta say that Wednesday and Thursday of next week look kinda interesting! And maybe East Kansas on Thursday, for once? GFS is starting to show consistency on run to run on location and timing of the next week storm systems so all I am hoping right now is that it keeps the consistency, albeit being 5-7 days away.

 

[Chris Hayes]

Between the SPC day 4-8 day outlook, and the 12z GFS showing negatively tilted trough coming into the plains on Wed and Thurs I'm getting excited for a good 2-3 days of severe weather.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Yeah next week is looking good. The SPC has every day next week outlooked!!!