Future of the Season Pt 3

[Ray Walker]

Guys, even though we are not seeing a string of outbreaks setting up we are more than likely going to see some decent chase setups with at least isolated supercells and tornadoes. Monday though wednesday looks pretty decent for the plains and towards the end of next week into the memorial day weekend looks ok also Especially for southern Kansas, Oklahoma and north Texas. Dont get down yet who knows what the rest of May will hold, The models never tell the whole story.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

Glad Mr. Berry is still gung-ho for the end of the month- the 18Z ensembles do not look as bleak as the previous runs. Bottom line I guess is that I will be out chasing, and there should be at least a few decent days mixed in there somewhere- could not be as bad as last season, but who knows at this point

 

[Dan Cook]

Heading out this morning with the COD crew for SD; should hopefully be decent.

 

[Chris Hayes]

Tuesday is starting to look more interesting. 500mb low is progged to be deeper than previous forecast and a bit slower moving. Cape values of 2500+ are forecast for western KS, along with a bit better shear. The shear isnt forecast to be as good as I'd like but it could get the job done. My only concern is that storms might not fire real good until after dark due to capping. Target right now is DDC.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I agree that Tuesday is becoming interesting. Moderate instability and decent helicity will be in place. The WRF is showing precip fire between Great Bend and Russell. I agree that that area looks best for Tuesday ATTM. Even south towards Pratt could be a player. So basically the same areas that have been hit before. I don't see an after dark show unless you are in OK or extreme S KS.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Beware, Monday is looking a little more like a classic "Panhandle surprise" day with some type of organized svr activity likely out west, e.g., near AMA. I'm guessing the SPC will eventually outlook the area especially with moisture return in progress and a tad bit more upper level flow, etc.

Warren

 

[Brandon Lawson]

I'd really like to see the upper-level support arrive a little sooner in the day, but I think there is still a good chance for everything to come together somewhere in western kansas. It may be a good thing with the westerly 500 flow seeing how the 850mb wins are more out of the southwest. Dewpoints and helicity look nice at least for now.

 

[Jim Bishop]

Beware, Monday is looking a little more like a classic "Panhandle surprise" day with some type of organized svr activity likely out west, e.g., near AMA. I'm guessing the SPC will eventually outlook the area especially with moisture return in progress and a tad bit more upper level flow, etc.

Warren

Monday sure looks interesting for the Texas Panhandle. The last two runs of the WRF show a subtle 500mb shortwave moving through the panhandle early Monday evening. The past two runs of the GFS also show this feature, just a little weaker and a bit further south. I think the WRF, having a higher resolution that the GFS, may be handling this wave better given how small/subtle the wave is.

It's a little hard to believe the wave goes from a 15 knot maximum to a 40 knot maximum between 18z & 00z. 30-35knots seems much more reasonable, and achieving that straight from the west at 500mb, in conjuction with the south to south-southeast 850mb jet, will get you a supercell.

The WRF indicates incredible 0-1 & 0-3km helicity values and adequate low level moisture. The problem is 300mb and above is pretty weak. The end result would likely be supercells with good mid-level rotation but strong outflow which will quickly undercut any low-level mesocyclone or wall cloud.

But certainly this is something to watch.

 

[Paul Knightley]

I quite like the trend of the GFS later in the week, in keeping quite a strong flow going, although the surging cold front could clear much of the moisture away, at least for a time. Even so, I think late in the week could bring some more action to parts of the southern Plains.

Tuesday is looking more and more interesting for southern KS/northern OK IMO too.

 

[Dan Robinson]

The GFS has the 500mb winds doing some weird stuff mid to late next week. Granted sometimes it's southwesterly, but it looks pretty weak after Wednesday onward. Tuesday looks like the best day so far for a couple of tornadoes from central to southern Kansas, after that I'm still not too excited. There is some troughiness showing up on the GFS wishcasts for the first of June, but flow looks pretty weak and the trough is shown developing mid-continent rather than moving in from the west.

Tuesday looks like a possible tornado day, but I'm not biting on it. I'm on the last of my 2007 chase funds so I'm waiting for June to put up something better.

 

[Paul Redmond]

Alas, I shall be stuck close to the San Antonio area again this weekend, and will not be able to baptise my new chase vehicle. I have a large report that I will have to get out next week, that I will be working on this weekend. I will also be hosting a cookout saterday for ASM. Sadly, I suspect that the season is pretty well over for south and central texas, my usual chase grounds. A busy day job will do that. Though this season I have certainly added to my video collection of past sunset lightning lit rotating wall clouds that never seem to tornado.

Still there is hope for a few more short waves, and texas is blessed with abundant moisture this year. The spring pattern seems to be a repeat of 2004. Perhaps a review of 2004 could provide some guidance in future planning for other parts of the plains.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Enjoy today! The GFS/ensembles and ECMWF say 'game over' after this - they have been very consistent for several days, with a major ridge over the central USA and a major trough over the east. No sign of western troughing through the end of the long-range period.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

Enjoy today! The GFS/ensembles and ECMWF say 'game over' after this - they have been very consistent for several days, with a major ridge over the central USA and a major trough over the east. No sign of western troughing through the end of the long-range period.

Agreed- what happened to the big trough Ed Berry and others were trumpeting- bah! So much for Kelvin waves and MJOs etc.
There might be a chance for a chase in the Dakotas sometime Sunday-Tuesday, then turn out the lights. I will never forgive myself for not taking this week off like I normally do. This will end up in my bottom 5 chase seasons, while most others will be talking about what a great year it was. To make matters even worse, we are heading for a historic drought here in Atlanta, my yard is drying up and blowing away as I type this. 2007 sucks. (sorry, I had to vent)

 

[joel ewing]

Matt, are you convinced that even in the Dakotas there will be not much hope for severe from June 1st. thru the 14th?
Say it ain't so! Thats when I'm booked to fly into Omaha. I've always had really good experiences in those northern plains, especially around June 8 thru 11.

Thanks for your thoughts.........Joel Ewing

 

[Matthew Crowther]

Matt, are you convinced that even in the Dakotas there will be not much hope for severe from June 1st. thru the 14th?
Say it ain't so! Thats when I'm booked to fly into Omaha. I've always had really good experiences in those northern plains, especially around June 8 thru 11.

Thanks for your thoughts.........Joel Ewing

My post was partially written in frustration- I think the period from approx June 4th on could be OK up north, at least for a couple of days, as the large trough that will be pumping up the ridge in the meantime finally (I hope) progresses east, at least bringing in some westerly flow across the norther tier of states. We might even have to chase in Canada (bring your passport).