Beginning Descent into Chase Season 2014

[Marcus Diaz]

Wait... is everyone discounting this cutoff low for any severe weather? Am I reading this right? A low over the southern plains with ample moisture doesn't excite you people?

Man... my Jimmies are seriously rustled.

 

[James Gustina]

Wait... is everyone discounting this cutoff low for any severe weather? Am I reading this right? A low over the southern plains with ample moisture doesn't excite you people?

Man... my Jimmies are seriously rustled.

I think the timing concerns are what's coming up. I believe that this weekend honestly does represent the last string of days on the southern Plains for a bit though. As such: http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/masonry/000/586/080/3aa.gif

 

[Zack Hargrove]

The composite reflectivity graphic you posted is for Sunday at 9 am Zach. It shows decaying thunderstorms from the previous evening, so I'm not sure if that was the one you intended to show. The challenge with next week's northern target area is moisture. The lower level flow from the GOM is out to lunch for several days because of the pesky, slow moving cut off low. If it could move out a little swifter it would help improve things dramatically, but as it stands any warm sector air mass will be of a modified nature. Both the ECMWF and Canadian GEM indicate the cut off low will move very slowly from now through most of next week. I really hope you have some good luck on your side though and prove me wrong!

Mark, it was a link from the NCEP page. It must have updated when the newer runs came in. Anyways... There were some mean looking discrete cells in the favored areas. Sorry about that.

I'm out either way instructing as a part of a class and am just checking out any and all possible marginal threats. Even in a slow period it's hard to get upset about being on the road as a paying job for a bit.


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[Mark Blue]

A crummy day of chasing is way better than any day at work, unless you love your job. The SPC 4-8 day outlook isn't as bad as I thought it would be, so there is definitely a marginal shot at severe next week. It could be better for late May though IMHO. The cutoff low is so far south I would think it will have moisture to work with given its proximity to the GOM. The northern areas are really going to struggle to get any decent moisture that far north. A lot hinges on the position of the cutoff low and whether it meanders next week or clears out sooner than its expected to.

 

[Bob Schafer]

Didn't someone say that motel rooms would be $200 in SE NM/W TX? Well, I am currently in a room in Hobbs that cost me $50 inc. tax. The guy at the desk said, yes, the national, famous-name motels in town are around $150, but not the mom-n-pop places. (Actually, he called them the "regular" motels. That's kind of funny. I seems like about 90% of the rooms here are vacant.

I think I must have driven past about a dozen "regular" motels, too, along US62. Just a FWIW and FYI, everyone. P.S. The room is comfortable and very clean, with wifi, frig, flat-screen TV & micro.

 

[Zack Hargrove]

We've also been researching hotels all over the area. Plenty of availability and much much cheaper than the said $200. If tomorrow can put up the same quality of storms as today, it will be an extremely fun chase. Also sounds like there may have even been a brief tornado today. The dynamics and thermos are just going to be better tomorrow. There just needs to be some good fortune with lingering clouds. The HiRes models and today's show have made me more excited about tomorrow.


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[Shane Adams]

Wait... is everyone discounting this cutoff low for any severe weather? Am I reading this right? A low over the southern plains with ample moisture doesn't excite you people?

Man... my Jimmies are seriously rustled.

Anvil level flow is weak throughout the Sat-Tue timeframe, which will lead to messy storms with HP characteristics or multi-cell clusters of crap. I'm not saying there won't be a tornado report or two between tomorrow and Tuesday, but I'd never know where to find it without totally lucking out while driving in circles from junk storm to junk storm. Sat has the best wind fields, but IMO it looks fairly unidirectional.

Maybe I'm just looking at it wrong, but unless we can get more than 40-50kts at h25, I just see a lot of beneficial rain, hail, and wind. Perhaps if we had a car of our own that was road ready I might be more aggressive, but I don't see anything worth renting a car for 3-4 days over. I'd rather roll the dice and hope for something better (even if it never comes) than run after what I believe will be crap. Maybe I'm having the opposite reaction as most; the more this year continues to be crap, the less I'm inclined to go after anything that wouldn't be to my standards in a decent year. I don't care if it's weeks, the Fall, or next year...I'll wait until I see a setup I like. It's probably a mixture between me not being very good at forecasting needle-in-the-haystack tornado days within days upon days of crap, plus the fact I don't chase just to "get out there."

Been watching this crap cutoff for days now, and just don't see where any one day comes together for a realistic, forecastable (within my abilities) tornado event. Here's how I see it:

Sat = seems unidirectional
Sun = lack of anvil level flow = messy crap
Mon = (heartbreaker) great WSW mid-level speed max....wasted because of crap anvil-level flow
Tue = where'd that mid-level flow go?

 

[Bob Schafer]

Wednesday night I thought this weekend would be pretty good chasing. Last night I decided I would go home this morning. This morning I changed my mind, thinking it looked pretty good again. Tonight, now that I'm in Hobbs I wish I had, instead, driven home today.

It only stands to reason that tomorrow morning I'll think it looks good again.

I've done so little chasing this year I don't mind "being out here". What the heck.

 

[Tim Carley]

Didn't someone say that motel rooms would be $200 in SE NM/W TX? Well, I am currently in a room in Hobbs that cost me $50 inc. tax. The guy at the desk said, yes, the national, famous-name motels in town are around $150, but not the mom-n-pop places. (Actually, he called them the "regular" motels. That's kind of funny. I seems like about 90% of the rooms here are vacant.

I think I must have driven past about a dozen "regular" motels, too, along US62. Just a FWIW and FYI, everyone. P.S. The room is comfortable and very clean, with wifi, frig, flat-screen TV & micro.

I'm in the Lovington NM Inn at $72 with tax and its a 4 star if the Dodge City Travel lodge is a 2 star!

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Midland/Odessa, Big Spring, Fort Stockton area where oil fields are running rampant are where the real pricy rooms are. I saw the Motel 6 in Midland, that was a 1.5 star and had crummy reviews go for $115/night for 1 bed. Mind you I'm not chasing alone so any room I get would have to have 2 queen beds. I think we might get a room Mon night and the best deals we could find were in Abilene. Albeit, I'm looking online for my deals because I never have luck getting a room right then and there. Plus I want to make sure there's decent reviews. So based on that, you can see why we only get name brand hotels.

 

[Bob Schafer]

With all due respect, Marcus, are you serious? You go by the scores posted online? I can understand that some folks want to only stay in name-brand motel chain rooms, but using internet scores to make those decisions is not something I would consider. I also know there are those who will drive an hour and a half in the dark after a chase is over rather than stay in a local motel. It kinda boggles my mind, but you guys suit yourself! I always ask to see the room before pulling my credit card out of my wallet, but IMO the vast majority of the local motels are just fine.

In other news.... WOW, the 11Z RAP looks good for today!

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Bob its the method I've worked with for years so I don't mind sticking to it. I've had no problems getting a decent room after browsing around.

In other news...yes, holy crap!

 

[chrisbray]

Latest long term runs show a smattering of hope once this cutoff low and high plains system moves off after the next week or so.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

I hope anyone chasing south of I-10 brought some fat stacks of cash for when the drug cartels kidnap you and demand some money for letting you all live. Happy chasing, folks!

Jokingly of course. But the cartels do run rampant especially in rural area by the border. Bet they'd love to see vans full of defenseless people with nice expensive laptops and camera equipment.

Oh, and watch out for the illegals crossing the highways, they can do a number on your vehicle, much like deer.

 

[Chris Wilburn]

Both the GFS and ECMWF run for 12z this morning shows some really good southwesterly flow beginning as early as next Sunday 6/1 for the Southern Plains, including OK and TX. Sunday might be a bit early with mainly Monday and Tuesday being the main days (if both models verify.) Both models agree on a general trend of southwesterly flow with good CAPE and moisture. However, the GFS is a tad quicker right now in regards to how fast the trough moves off to the east. It's nice to see both of the models agree, even if it's still a week out, but it is showing good flow for areas of the Southern Plains from KS into OK. I know it's early, but at least it offers hope. These days are within the 168-192 hour time frame that many times verifies, at least in regards to a pattern change. At least it's not something 10+ days out and instead 7-8 days out.