Beginning Descent into Chase Season 2014

[Jacob Ferden]

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.ph...nding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Well, I can't say THAT is encouraging if you're hoping for an early start to the season.

My gut feeling is that this year will be similar to last year in the southern plains, with lingering cold followed by good chase setups in May, with the dryline setting up a bit west of I-35 on many days.

I also tend to think the Midwest and northern plains may be considerably more active than last year come June thanks to the repeated clobbering they've been getting with these clippers all winter and now this big low that's going to blast Minnesota and Wisconsin with up to a foot of snow.

Of course, the Yellowstone Caldera could erupt tomorrow too. My forecasting skill for that is about the same as my severe weather forecasting skill. So take anything I say with about 500 giant blocks of salt.

 

[Kelly Sugden]

These threads come up every year, its always fun to speculate...

and what is "Of course not, youre a chaser" supposed to mean? Got beef with us lowly chasers, go find another forum.

So, what exactly do you mean by "speculate"?! Make vague correlation statements based of MJO, mountain torque, global atmospheric angular momentum, drought, past experiences, pure ignorance, or menstruation cycles?!

This is my beef right here. Taking the whole conceptual model and throwing it out the window.

 

[James Gustina]

So, what exactly do you mean by "speculate"?! Make vague correlation statements based of MJO, mountain torque, global atmospheric angular momentum, drought, past experiences, pure ignorance, or menstruation cycles?!

spec·u·late [spek-yuh-leyt]
verb (used without object), spec·u·lat·ed, spec·u·lat·ing.
1.
to engage in thought or reflection; meditate (often followed by on, upon, or a clause).
2.
to indulge in conjectural thought.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

Shane said it best, as a chaser I can find tornadoes better than you (Kelly). And yes, in the end, that is all that matters to us chasers.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

By the way, as far as my predicitions go, I have developed a pattern of forecasting below average tornado seasons, so when that verifies I am right. If we have an above average season, then I am delightfully wrong. Either way, I win.

 

[calvinkaskey]

I'm going to try and chase tomorrow. Thinking about heading to northern Va to SE pa tomorrow morning early. You guys probably think I'm crazy. But hey, I've already seen two simultaneous funnel clouds with probably a third form in New York state in a minutes time. Also got some gustnado funnels. They were pretty short lived but hey they are funnels.

 

[Kelly Sugden]

Shane said it best, as a chaser I can find tornadoes better than you (Kelly). And yes, in the end, that is all that matters to us chasers.

Really. That is your argument... yeah, "look at me and all the tornadoes I have seen" is childish. Who cares how many tornadoes you have seen.

 

[Terrence Cook]

"look at me and all the tornadoes I have seen" is childish. Who cares how many tornadoes you have seen.

I do not understand what you are hoping to achieve here, Kelly? These folks, myself included are proud of the tornadoes we have seen. I myself do not have an accurate number to run around flaunting but it does give some merit to the idea of a forum called STORM TRACK. Seems like you need access to CFDG since your above all of us "Chasers".

These discussion are a great representation of our fascination with the unknown. Not the MJO or drought patterns or El nino/La nina have ever been concreted in following tornado statistics from a reliable forecast perspective. So it is my opinion that these discussion might offer mostly wild ideas... but sometimes you just never know what will come of it. It would be much more amusing if you offered your professional insights in a productive manner versus being negative for no apparent reason.

 

[Kelly Sugden]

Good point Terrence. Actually, I thought about nixing my account more than once. I do know of CFDG, not a member though. Too many cooks in the kitchen scenario. I like forecasting myself, because if I make a mistake, then I own that mistake and it's more meaningful next time.

IMHO, there is a clear separation between a "tornado chaser" and a meteorologist. By the way, I hate the term "tornado chaser". So you can have a well sculpted supercell, but if its non-tornadic, then the chase is a bust!? I don't understand that.

Also, getting back to the original point... there is a clear misunderstanding of the science sometimes. It's down right laughable. As a meteorologist, I am not going to even guess if this year will be below, near, or above normal for tornado count across the country. The simple answer is, I don't know. If you claim to know that then you are only fooling yourself and come across as very cocky.

I'll end this with... now, get off my lawn

 

[James Gustina]

I love me some storm structure. One of my favorites was the LaCrosse day two years ago. Didn't get great shots of the tornadoes but man was the structure good.

I just think it's fun to throw out predictions, for lack of a better term. It's horrible meteorology from a professional standpoint, but seeing as we've had two seasons back to back that have been competing for two of the worst years in the past twenty chase seasons, it's interesting to see what people think is going to happen. I'm very interested in how the drought is playing out mainly for the fact that the TX PH (which is my favorite part of the Alley), has been so extraordinarily quiet recently with the drought being a likely significant factor in that.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

Really. That is your argument... yeah, "look at me and all the tornadoes I have seen" is childish. Who cares how many tornadoes you have seen.

Actually that was Shane's argument, but one with which I agree. As for who cares about how many tornadoes I see?....well....I care and that is what matters to me. If you knew me you would know I am one who believes its impossible to predict what kind of season we will have any given year. I like to consider myself a tornado chaser because I chase to see tornadoes. I appreciate all kinds of severe weather, but the opportunity to see tornadoes is why I chase. Its not a popularity contest. I have a smoking hot girlfriend, a wonderful son, great friends and am quite successful at chasing tornadoes. I dont believe I am an elite chaser, in fact I dont believe I am the best chaser who has posted on this thread. I dont appreciate snide comments like some which you have made at times, but hey....to each their own. Good luck out there and stay safe.

 

[Shane Adams]

Really. That is your argument... yeah, "look at me and all the tornadoes I have seen" is childish. Who cares how many tornadoes you have seen.

Who cares about a pompous ass who comes into a perfectly fine thread swinging his dick like it's an anemometer? You need to learn how to put "IMO" in front of your statements, because that's all they are. If you want to play that game, I think it's childish to geek out over computer models and numbers crunching, believing that somehow elevates you above others, all the while never verifying any of your forecasts with real world results. It's easy to sit in a chair and be an asshole about forecasting prowess when you never drive 500 miles to test it.

And why is being proud of a piece of paper in a frame on a wall that represents a lot of reading and listening you did for a number of years cool while being proud of the fact you have succeeded NUMEROUS times in not only predicting where the most elusive phenomenon in weather will occur but also driving to that spot and observing it first hand is not? Explain to me exactly why that is.

 

[Shane Adams]

IMHO, there is a clear separation between a "tornado chaser" and a meteorologist.

This isn't news. Clearly there's a difference. Being the latter often times clouds the mind (forest for the trees) to the point where one's ability to succeed as the former is compromised.

By the way, I hate the term "tornado chaser". So you can have a well sculpted supercell, but if its non-tornadic, then the chase is a bust!? I don't understand that.

This old chestnut.....

I don't understand why people can't fathom that maybe everyone else isn't just like them. I'm a "tornado chaser" whether you like it or not. It's a term that gets more to the point about why I'm out there. Supercells and structure are the bees' knees, but videotaping tornadoes is why I chase. IMO you can't capture the grandeur of a supercell storm on its own, it's something that just has to be experienced first hand. But that's me.

Also, getting back to the original point... there is a clear misunderstanding of the science sometimes. It's down right laughable.

So you're saying you expect all of us laymen to be as knowledgeable as yourself? Tell me then, if that's the case, what makes you so special? That you have a degree to back up your opinions? Because otherwise it's asinine to criticize people who do not have your knowledge or academic achievement as if they should. And some people just like to videotape tornadoes, and don't need a 12-step scientific approach to get them. Look out a window once in a while.

As a meteorologist, I am not going to even guess if this year will be below, near, or above normal for tornado count across the country. The simple answer is, I don't know.

And neither do I. Neither do any of us. But unlike you, who chose to critical think this sh*t to death, completely ignoring the obvious "loose" nature of the thread (it's called 'fun'), we decided to throw stuff out there, simultaneously understanding that it's just chatter for the sake of conversation. Maybe it's the difference between having a personality or not. I don't know that either.

If you claim to know that then you are only fooling yourself and come across as very cocky.

I've always wanted to type this in context (so thank you):

Pot, meet kettle.

 

[Kelly Sugden]

See below....

This isn't news. Clearly there's a difference. Being the latter often times clouds the mind (forest for the trees) to the point where one's ability to succeed as the former is compromised.

Okay, so you think this is a situational awareness problem?! Any good meteorologist recognizes differences on the spatial and temporal coordinate system. This is an absurd conclusion based of biased and unwarranted opinions.

This old chestnut.....

I don't understand why people can't fathom that maybe everyone else isn't just like them. I'm a "tornado chaser" whether you like it or not. It's a term that gets more to the point about why I'm out there. Supercells and structure are the bees' knees, but videotaping tornadoes is why I chase. IMO you can't capture the grandeur of a supercell storm on its own, it's something that just has to be experienced first hand. But that's me.

I actually kind of agree with you on this


So you're saying you expect all of us laymen to be as knowledgeable as yourself? Tell me then, if that's the case, what makes you so special? That you have a degree to back up your opinions? Because otherwise it's asinine to criticize people who do not have your knowledge or academic achievement as if they should. And some people just like to videotape tornadoes, and don't need a 12-step scientific approach to get them. Look out a window once in a while.

No, in case you haven't heard.... some people with degrees can't forecast out of a paper bag. I've seen this numerous times. I am not trying to do any posturing, but it is not unreasonable to get somewhat perturbed by people who have a gross misunderstanding of a meteorological conceptual model.


And neither do I. Neither do any of us. But unlike you, who chose to critical think this sh*t to death, completely ignoring the obvious "loose" nature of the thread (it's called 'fun'), we decided to throw stuff out there, simultaneously understanding that it's just chatter for the sake of conversation. Maybe it's the difference between having a personality or not. I don't know that either.

So a "fun" thread is throwing the science out the window and making anecdotal whimsical quips?



I've always wanted to type this in context (so thank you):

Pot, meet kettle.

Legalize it

 

[Scott Weberpal]

MOD NOTE: Let's get this back on track - cut the condescending crap, and get back to speculating. If you don't like to speculate, don't respond chastising those who do.