Beginning Descent into Chase Season 2014

[James Gustina]

Looks like a quiet first half of March to say the least. The gulf looks like it really might have some problems going into late March/early April if we keep taking dry air blasts like this. West-central OK got some ok precip over the past three days per the mesonet (anywhere between .4-.6 inches from Ft. Cobb to Guthrie) but unfortunately still nothing to write home about out onto the high plains.

I'm leaning hard towards pessimism right now just due to the crap flow regime and terrible drought. This has the feel of a slow burn season, sort of like 2010. Although 2010 didn't have to contend with debilitating drought across the alley. Thankfully it's still only March 6 so time will tell.

 

[Adam Lucio]

I can wait till April 22nd for another year like 2010. Hell I can wait till May 18th for another year like 2013.

I am quite bored though, so Im itchin for some action. Not seeing anything other than the fantasy system around the 20th which given the way the GFS currently has it coming together (cut off low phasing with digging trough) I highly doubt that will materialize....but alas.

 

[Mark Ellinwood]

FYI last week I made spring (March/April/May) seasonal forecast for tornado activity: http://www.ustornadoes.com/2014/02/28/spring-2014-seasonal-tornado-outlook/

Looks like a quieter than normal spring overall, though May could provide some better action (closer to normal instead of quieter than normal). 2013 is probably a decent analog, though my forecast favors early 1960s analogs.

 

[chrisbray]

I've noticed that the GFS keeps showing nice systems at the tail (day 16/17) period consistently, but by the time they get closer than 348 hours it has completely reversed that forecast.

 

[Mark Ellinwood]

I've noticed that the GFS keeps showing nice systems at the tail (day 16/17) period consistently, but by the time they get closer than 348 hours it has completely reversed that forecast.

This could be the result of the MJO trying to move over into the more favorable phases for bringing disturbances into the Southwest. The sharp decline of the PNA into negative territory supports this. I think we'll start to see more systems pushing out of the Southwest late this month, but I don't expect it to be a sustainable pattern going forward.

 

[James Gustina]

It'll be interesting to see what spits out the first legitimate Plains setup. This flow pattern has been so terribly consistent over the past few weeks that I'd be surprised if there's a March tornado anywhere on the Plains. Not fun considering I haven't seen a legitimate supercell in over five months.

 

[Bob Schafer]

I am having rotator cuff surgery 3-17, so hold off on anything good for a little while after that, please.

 

[Skip Talbot]

I've noticed that the GFS keeps showing nice systems at the tail (day 16/17) period consistently, but by the time they get closer than 348 hours it has completely reversed that forecast.

Ah the 384 hour mirage. A tropical oasis to the SDS crazed chasers, but it's perpetually on the horizon. You're probably seeing climatology taking over at that range in the models.

 

[Sean Ramsey]

I must be getting old. I don't even have a short range outlook on what I'm having for dinner tonight.

 

[chrisbray]

Ah the 384 hour mirage. A tropical oasis to the SDS crazed chasers, but it's perpetually on the horizon. You're probably seeing climatology taking over at that range in the models.

Dear lord, that is hilarious...I guess I am realizing how much the GFS flip flops that far out, because look at the 18z run valid for 2014-03-22 06UTC. Complete opposite, with a ridge in the spot where the trough is, and a giant trough over the great lakes region..

 

[Jeremy Perez]

Apart from the Roulette table of 300+ hours, the 06Z and 18Z GFS runs will tack on additional amounts of degraded info—so, hang on for those 00Z/12Z runs for wishing on potential futures. Sure would be nice to have a good upper level & moisture over the plains during that time frame, due to coincidentally visiting family in OK.

 

[chrisbray]

Today's 12z shows a nice low pressure system developing in the southwest flow developing over the tex/okla panhandles from Friday 21/Saturday 22. Let's see if it sticks. Sorry for the wishcasting! Just sick of winter.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Yup, I picked up on that too. If nothing else, it could be one heck of a late-season winter storm for somewhere. One thing I've noticed about the GFS at long range, while it flip-flops a lot and is totally useless for details of severe weather setups and whether such setups might be chaseable, it does seem to have some skill at general atmospheric trends +/- a few days. Therefore, I'm encouraged to see it showing a more fluid pattern rather than every map looking like it had since January run after run like we were seeing a few weeks ago.

 

[Mark Ellinwood]

Apart from the Roulette table of 300+ hours, the 06Z and 18Z GFS runs will tack on additional amounts of degraded info—so, hang on for those 00Z/12Z runs for wishing on potential futures. Sure would be nice to have a good upper level & moisture over the plains during that time frame, due to coincidentally visiting family in OK.

As has been the case for several years, nowadays there is a negligible amount of forecast error when comparing the 00z/12z GFS runs to the 06z/18z runs: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43144-why-do-people-dismiss-6z-and-18z-model-runs/

 

[Jeremy Perez]

Thanks for the link to that discussion, Mark!

To dismiss the 6z/18z cycles demonstrates a complete lack of understanding for how data assimilation cycling works.

^^^ My picture goes next to this in the dictionary of ignorance.

I've completely avoided 06Z/18Z GFS up to now.