Chris Frost
EF0
It is clear that the season can't start soon enough. 
Beginning Descent into Chase Season 2014
- Thread starter James Gustina
- Start date
Wes Carter
EF5
There are few things I enjoy as much as driving halfway across the US, looking at models and observational data, attempting to choose a target area, and bouncing around trying to be where initiation of a tornadic supercell occurs.
Since I drive so far and work for a living, I have to plan a bit more than my forecasting abilities will allow. So a certain part of my process is speculating and taking a chance at failure. If it's worth doing it has to also be worth failing at.
I look at ENSO and AO to try to come up with a best guess. It's not based on scientific method, it's all gut instinct and I'm not that good at it. But I enjoy the hell out of it.
I'm not saving lives, making forecasts for other people, nor claiming to be more than what I am. I just want to discuss success and failures with others, pick the brains of more knowledgable people, and enjoy myself.
I can't speak for anyone besides myself but I'll bet many others are here for the same reason. No one has claimed their speculation carries and weight whatsoever. It's no different than speculating in August who will be the BCS Champion.
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Since I drive so far and work for a living, I have to plan a bit more than my forecasting abilities will allow. So a certain part of my process is speculating and taking a chance at failure. If it's worth doing it has to also be worth failing at.
I look at ENSO and AO to try to come up with a best guess. It's not based on scientific method, it's all gut instinct and I'm not that good at it. But I enjoy the hell out of it.
I'm not saving lives, making forecasts for other people, nor claiming to be more than what I am. I just want to discuss success and failures with others, pick the brains of more knowledgable people, and enjoy myself.
I can't speak for anyone besides myself but I'll bet many others are here for the same reason. No one has claimed their speculation carries and weight whatsoever. It's no different than speculating in August who will be the BCS Champion.
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James Gustina
Supporter
Hoping OU pulls out the championship next season so I can be in school for it, but I digress.
This is all the fuzziest guesswork and I agree, I don't have a clue nor does anyone else on this thread on what this season'll do. I lean to it not being that great considering the pre-spring conditions seemed similar to last year, but that's sketchy logic at best. I would guess that the traditional alley will start getting back in on some more consistent setups as the drought lessens and the flow regime to start the season isn't as terrible as last year (Hudson Bay Vortex with polar intrusions every other day in March) but I have not the slightest confidence in that.
Dan Robinson
EF5
These two are mutually exclusive: 1.) A college-level understanding of meteorology and 2.) the level of working knowledge of weather necessary to be a half-decent storm chaser. Someone with a PhD in physics isn't necessarily going to be a great race car driver, nor is the successful race car driver going to be able to talk shop about physics that govern his car with the PhDs. That doesn't mean that both sides can't learn things from each other.
chrisbray
EF4
Everyday I hop on to twisterdata and look at the gfs long range picture, and everyday I swear I must be seeing the same run that I have been seeing for the past three weeks. So sick of subzero temperatures - I'd take 40 degrees at this point!
Brett Roberts
EF5
While the next two weeks look dismal in terms of organized severe weather, I'm happy to see the guidance indicating a cut-off low over TX by this weekend, possibly continuing into early next week. Timing of departure is always very touchy with these cut-offs, but the ECMWF has been consistent in keeping the upper low center W of I-35 for at least a couple days, bringing beneficial rains to a large portion of TX. The GFS has been more progressive, but this morning's 12z run also paints considerable QPF over TX/OK. I'll be watching trends closely this week, as the best-case outcome for this system could put a dent in the drought for portions of the southern Plains. However, the worst-case scenario of the wave passing uneventfully into the Arklatex with little/no Plains precip is also still a possibility.
James Gustina
Supporter
Split flow with deep troughing throughout the SW would be ideal. Should also hopefully moderate the temps a bit so the atmosphere remembers it's March and not mid-January. Looks like the panhandles and then eastern CO/NM are gonna get the full force of any precip events that are associated with the next few systems coming off the So. Cal coast. I'd be amazed if there wasn't decent measurable precip at least in the northern TX PH with this one.
Marcus Diaz
EF5
Well I'm not being optimistic about having a wet March. So far this has felt very 2011-ish here. I personally don't mind the slow start. I'm saving all my energy and funds until late May and through the summer. Seems like I blow all my resources in piddly early season crap and sit here wishing I was in the northern states come summer time. I'm only chasing the for sure tornado setups from now until late May, then I can get my structure and other things afterwards.
James Gustina
Supporter
GFS has been teasing way out into fantasy land. Really dynamic systems coming off the So. Cal coast with the gulf recovering next week after a round of cold fronts. Still a spectre at this point but something to watch.
Andy Wehrle
EF5
I'll take that over constant, periodic cold intrusions depicted all the way out to 384 hours. 
Brett Roberts
EF5
Well, I knew I shouldn't have piped up. The first ECMWF run after my post the other day saw a significant shift toward a less cut-off solution for this weekend's system, and any associated drought relief for OK and N TX now looks to be minimal. Following its departure, there should be a couple more waves in NW flow that dive into the High Plains over the next ten days. Models indicate chances for significant precipitation, but I'm skeptical that relatively minor changes could once again push the focus off to the east (as has been the running theme for the past several months -- and years, really). What we really need is a wholesale pattern change with major western troughing, where each wave is guaranteed to bring mountain snows and rain to at least parts of Chase Alley. That looks to be two weeks away at minimum.
Rob H
EF5
I'll take that over constant, periodic cold intrusions depicted all the way out to 384 hours.
Arghh.... I don't know why people can't understand this. Seeing a trough at 384 hours is so much better than seeing a polar air mass pushing its way down to the Gulf. Yes, we know it probably won't verify, but it's better than noathing because it's at least showing some combination of events might lead to severe weather so it's at least possible. This is my biggest pet peeve in forecasting and it drives me nuts.
I've been checkign since I read your first post the other day, Brett, and unfortunately I haven't seen any even minor indication that we are within a few weeks of some severe weather. Looks like winter will keep its grip on the CONUS for awhile still, with only a few "nice" days mixed in there. At least it doesn't look like any more cA air coming out of northern Canada, although it'll remain cool/cold in the upper Midwest. Also looks to remain mostly dry.
There have been a couple of ominous setups showing up in Greg Carbin's CFS plots, but with a 30 day lead time, I'd say those are just part of the noise.
There have been a couple of ominous setups showing up in Greg Carbin's CFS plots, but with a 30 day lead time, I'd say those are just part of the noise.
Derek Weston
EF5
Nice surface low and trough over the plains later in the period on recent runs, but fat chance we'll have respectable moisture. So agree, likely no severe. We see these every year early on... so, meh.
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Brett Roberts
EF5
I agree, and I'd be very surprised to see a good chase setup before March 20-22. To be more clear, that's not to say I think there's above-average likelihood of one between then and the end of the month, either. If anything, given the established multi-month pattern of relentless eastern troughing, I'd favor persistence until model solutions strongly support a pattern shift inside the 10-day range (as opposed to perpetually showing hints of one 14+ days out).
My main focus for March, like it was in February, is the prospect for drought relief. It's been nothing but disappointment on that front so far, and the inevitability that drought will negatively impact Plains setups in at least the early part of chase season (i.e., April) is creeping in.
