Beginning Descent into Chase Season 2014

[Marcus Diaz]

I don't understand why everyone is so concerned about how drought effects the season as I recall have we not been in a drought for over 5 yrs? It did not seem to effect Oklahoma in 2013!!

TX & OK panhandle, western KS, and areas to the west have been in a severe drought since 2011. As stated, this causes the dryline to swing out to the east due to lack of evapotranspiration, which is an important part of the earth's water cycle. And I think there's a lot more other chasers that would love to chase the panhandles/western KS, as opposed to the I-35 corridor.

 

[Adam Lucio]

If they get pushed far enough east to the midwest I wouldn't complain. Gotta be flexible and go where the weather goes!

 

[James Gustina]

I would take a few good Illinois setups every now and again going into June. Just keep it out of Indiana and Ohio, I refuse to go back to that cruel form of torture that is chasing the Ohio River Valley.

 

[Adam Lucio]

Northwest Ohio is really awesome chase terrain. Good roads and pretty flat. I had the misfortune of ending up along the Ohio river on march 2nd 2012. On the Indiana side, watching a tornado in Kentucky through the trees. The hook literally straddled the river with the core on our side and the tornado (of course) on the other...boy that was frustrating lol

 

[James Gustina]

We got into a little bit of a traffic jam on 71 as that first supercell was crossing the river, a truck had managed to flip on the interstate before the storm even got there (Kentuckians and rain do strange things). One of the hairier moments of that season. I can agree though, NW Ohio is pretty great, especially up by Van Wert and down into Mercer and Darke counties.

 

[Chris Frost]

Everybody just chill. It's February. Nothing ever happens in February.

Come on. You know that's not true.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/080205_rpts.html

 

[Simon Brewer]

I prefer to wait till beginning of March to make a long term large-scale pattern forecast for the Spring, but it appears 3 large driving teleconnections are becoming well established:



1. Large area of above normal SST over western Atlantic
2. negative 3.4 ENSO index average over Dec, Jan, Feb time period
3. Southwest Drought

These teleconnections are suggesting a large-scale Spring pattern with heavy activity in early and mid Spring, and late Spring activity might be driven by pattern changes associated with MJO waves. It appears most activity to be centered over the Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and Southeast.

NOTE: individual short wave troughs, severe weather outbreaks, and tornado events are too short and small for long term pattern forecasts.

 

[Bob Schafer]

Come on. You know that's not true.

I knew it. I knew there was no way my statement would stand without somebody disagreeing.

 

[Chris Frost]

I wasn't trying to give ya hard time. I was actually wondering if you were thinking about that date when you had written that.

As far as this early season stuff goes it (typically) is in places going at such speeds that it can't be appreciated all that much. Besides, it only takes a couple good May/June days for a season to be a good one by my standards.

 

[chrisbray]

So much for the significatn pattern change the one met. from quad cities was proposing....looks like models indicate the set up going back to ridge west/trough east for at least next week. I'm so sick of this winter!

 

[Kelly Sugden]

This thread is ridiculous. It's mid February... hasn't even past peak blizzard season for Kansas and people are making causation equals correlation statements.

 

[James Gustina]

This thread is ridiculous. It's mid February... hasn't even past peak blizzard season for Kansas and people are making causation equals correlation statements.

Then don't read it if it bothers you. We're not exactly on a forum that abides by the principles of scientific method.

 

[James Gustina]

I will agree though, this thread is essentially about making assumptions based off of subjective data plots. Just thought it'd be fun to talk about considering there is not much else going on at this point of the year.

 

[calvinkaskey]

Anyone have any expectations for this upcoming severe weather outbreak in the eastern half of the United States? Anyone ever chase outside of the Midwest?

 

[Adam Lucio]

These threads come up every year, its always fun to speculate...