Beginning Descent into Chase Season 2014

[James Gustina]

I'm still hesitant about next week. Crashing cold fronts seem like a distinct possibility and I refuse to go through early season 2013 Part II. The 12Z run this morning was bringing a pretty nasty, positively-tilted longwave ejecting through the heart of the CONUS with a monster front swinging down at the end of the period (hr. 240). Hopefully it's wrong.
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/US/gfsUS_sfc_temp_240.gif

 

[Shane Adams]

I'm still hesitant about next week. Crashing cold fronts seem like a distinct possibility and I refuse to go through early season 2013 Part II. The 12Z run this morning was bringing a pretty nasty, positively-tilted longwave ejecting through the heart of the CONUS with a monster front swinging down at the end of the period (hr. 240). Hopefully it's wrong.

I agree. Next week looks very GFSish, meaning progressive and positive. But for all the synoptic/mesoscale crappiness, there's not even precip breaking out. I'm far more excited for the general warming trend at this point than I am any shot at chaseable severe weather. And I couldn't agree more with your second statement. I'm done wasting my time on "just in cases" because I have the money and day off. If I only get 10-15 shots a year these days, I'm gonna make'em count. I'll gamble when it's 85/70 and upper level winds are marginal; this early-season super-dynamic stuff that pans out once in 13-15 setups, the chase teams can keep all that to themselves.

 

[James Gustina]

I agree. Next week looks very GFSish, meaning progressive and positive. But for all the synoptic/mesoscale crappiness, there's not even precip breaking out. I'm far more excited for the general warming trend at this point than I am any shot at chaseable severe weather. And I couldn't agree more with your second statement. I'm done wasting my time on "just in cases" because I have the money and day off. If I only get 10-15 shots a year these days, I'm gonna make'em count. I'll gamble when it's 85/70 and upper level winds are marginal; this early-season super-dynamic stuff that pans out once in 13-15 setups, the chase teams can keep all that to themselves.

I made the mistake of chasing a lot of early crap last season and it never paid off. Even so I'm itching to get out again. All my offseason activities are getting monotonous (the soccer club I support has gotten blown out of the water the past three weeks). So we'll see what happens, maybe there'll be a nice surprise thrown in west of 35 in March.

 

[Jeff Duda]

It's interesting that the CFS graphics on Greg Carbin's site are starting to light up with this distant trough. However, there are large regions where only the SCP > 1 OR only convective precip is showing up. In other words, the model disagrees on the location of the dynamics and moisture, which is typical of a sweeping cold front. My look at the models recently supports what others are speculating in that we're likely looking at a big ol' cold front , but with enough moisture and (elevated) instability to kick off some (potentially) vigorous thunderstorms. Just given the time of year and the look to the system, I bet elevated hailers would be the only real threat out of this.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

One positive in what the GFS is showing is the next cold front doesn't look to shove itself down to the Caribbean. Looks like it won't make it to the coast and scour the moisture feed.

 

[James Gustina]

I wouldn't be surprised by a few days of multicell madness next week in eastern Oklahoma. I doubt we'll be seeing any supercellular setups for a good while as long as cold fronts are still making their way to southern Texas. Like Marcus said though, at least there shouldn't be repeated scouring of the gulf like there was this time last year.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

I agree. Next week looks very GFSish, meaning progressive and positive. But for all the synoptic/mesoscale crappiness, there's not even precip breaking out. I'm far more excited for the general warming trend at this point than I am any shot at chaseable severe weather. And I couldn't agree more with your second statement. I'm done wasting my time on "just in cases" because I have the money and day off. If I only get 10-15 shots a year these days, I'm gonna make'em count. I'll gamble when it's 85/70 and upper level winds are marginal; this early-season super-dynamic stuff that pans out once in 13-15 setups, the chase teams can keep all that to themselves.

This is easily the biggest reason why I chase almost exclusively either "late-season" like kind of days early in the year or I wait for the high dewpoints and cape setups and let them do the work they always do. 90% of my best stuff here on the Plains has come from days which all had the same characteristics, high cape and good moisture along with good directional shear. Plus cold fronts this time of year tend to make chasing more frustrating than fruitful.

Plus there's the whole job/time-off/money thing I have to deal with too, I have in a best case scenario 20-ish days I can use for chasing, which slants me towards the more reliable part of the year

 

[Adam Lucio]

Its nice to be watching a system again though. Anything this time of year is just a bonus for those who live locally or with an unlimited bankroll where they can risk it. It just reminds me that it wont be too much longer now, and that I also need to start crunching to get everything ready before that first inevitable chase.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Again I'm no expert, nor do I know if this really makes a hill of beans when it comes to our season here. Our friends across the pond have been experiencing a very wet and stormy winter. Especially those in the U.K. I've asked when was the last time it has been that bad over there. Consensus was in the fall of 2000. Naturally I had to see what the 2001 season turned out to be. Looked to be pretty active in all areas.

 

[James Gustina]

NAM has been throwing out some fun things up on the Northwest Passage between Watonga and Woodward the past few runs. Not too interested in the chase prospects, but more the possibility of convection along the dryline for the first time in almost six months. Looks like a little compact trough embedded in the flow, with mid-50 dews and mid-70 temps could maybe give some precip to NW OK.

 

[Brett Roberts]

Like the last several posters, I'm very underwhelmed at the prospects for any chaseable convection this week in the Plains. Of more concern to me is the fact that what looked from 10-14 days out like the first major, full-latitude western trough in months has devolved into yet another system amplifying east of the Plains, coincident with a resurgence of west-coast ridging. Obviously, this long-term pattern needs to change soon, or we will indeed be facing "early-season 2013 Part II." More importantly, as a result of this system tanking, the Plains look unlikely to receive any precipitation of significance before at least the end of February.

Basically, my drought-related concerns from a few weeks ago have ticked up a couple notches.

 

[Bob Schafer]

Everybody just chill. It's February. Nothing ever happens in February.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Everybody just chill. It's February. Nothing ever happens in February.

Seriously.

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[bradjones]

I don't understand why everyone is so concerned about how drought effects the season as I recall have we not been in a drought for over 5 yrs? It did not seem to effect Oklahoma in 2013!!

 

[James Gustina]

I don't understand why everyone is so concerned about how drought effects the season as I recall have we not been in a drought for over 5 yrs? It did not seem to effect Oklahoma in 2013!!

It pushed nearly everything eastward into the I-35 corridor/metro area which is absolute hell to chase when there are thousands of scared Oklahomans on the roads. The western portion of the alley is the problem with the drought e.g. the last decent year of tornadoes in the panhandles was 2010.