Thoughts about the upcoming 2015 chase season

[Shane Adams]

That article is just Accueather's version of a post on a thread like this. I see no reason to validate anything they say over any other opinion already expressed here. I guess they have to publicly predict the weather they want to boost ratings before storm season? Nothing sells in the severe weather market like a deadly outbreak in Dixie. Wishful thinking on AW's part more than anything else.

 

[calvinkaskey]

That article is just Accueather's version of a post on a thread like this. I see no reason to validate anything they say over any other opinion already expressed here. I guess they have to publicly predict the weather they want to boost ratings before storm season? Nothing sells in the severe weather market like a deadly outbreak in Dixie. Wishful thinking on AW's part more than anything else.

I haven't seen anything unusual in terms of cold over ne usa or midwest still. Duration has been good but not even one day with highs in single digits at bgm (Binghamton) airport in new york which sits on top of a high hill 1600 ft. TWC showed the gulf stream with 8 degree C above normal north and east of north carolina. I wonder if that could spill into spring and give some very chasable days like last year in north carolina.

 

[rdale]

Calvin - bgm had a cold January and a very cold February.

 

[calvinkaskey]

Much colder than normal but seems warmer than it could be. Not as many below zero readings as last yr in jan. Not anywhere near extreme cold. I think the only record low we had was in Nov. We had a record high in January.

 

[rdale]

Look at the forecast for the week ahead - maybe you'll revise your conclusion later this month In any case, Shane is spot-on. AccuWeather long range forecasts are not done to improve the lives of the readers. It's done to make money, and they'll say whatever they think gets the most shares.

 

[chrisbray]

February Fun?

 

[Caleb Grunzke]

Super Tuesday Part II tomorrow. #wedges

 

[James Gustina]

I love that the minute I put the kibosh on a setup sometime soon, some random garbage starts showing up around 200 hours on the GFS and Euro.

 

[Warren Faidley]

If you go by the NCEP Ensembles it looks pretty boring through the entire forecast period or at least for the next week with some level of confidence. Then again, it only takes a slight bump to turn the long range zonal forecast into something more productive.

RE: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/ensmean_us_alltimes.html

Regardless, it's that time of year when it starts getting interesting to watch the latest runs for the first big event.

W.

 

[calvinkaskey]

there u go

Super Tuesday Part II tomorrow. #wedges

Thunderstorms possible in mn already, lol. Looked at my weather book from 1993 near the blizzard and we had lows in single digits in mid march. Forecasts continue to overestimate cold outbreaks. We'll see if we get our first (possiblely second) record low at bgm for winter season. Still looking for any lasting extreme cold here with at least a high in the single digits. I think the coldest ever record high minimum is like - 5.

 

[Jeff Duda]

http://www.komonews.com/weather/blo...rthwest-in-for-very-dry-spring-290751791.html

I'm not well-versed on how the quasi-biennial oscillation can be used for seasonal forecasts, but the plot for April-June appears to show much of the plains with a dry signal. If that verifies, we may be looking at another lean year on the plains. But take that image with a grain of salt really. It's just too generic (and we're missing part of the domain).

 

[James Gustina]

Looking like moisture might start making attempts at coming inland again over the higher terrain to the west which could spell more precip across the High Plains if it pans out. Better hope we have a good early season if that chart you posted verifies, Jeff.

 

[Michael Gavan]

In some ways, this is worse than last year's February for the upper midwest and great lakes. We had weekly cold incursions last year. This year it's a big purple buzz saw.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.ph...nding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

 

[chrisbray]

Yeah next two weeks don't look very good, but I it is just February and hopefully by the end the big ridge out west will break down and the polar airmass will stop plunging this way

 

[Adam Lucio]

More rain there certainly isn't a bad thing, but it wont mean squat if we can't get past long lasting blocking patterns that keep the east coast troughing/west coast ridging in place. Until that changes, everything else be damned. That being said, it doesn't appear we'll be getting any abnormally early season setups this year. So for you procrastinators, youve got some extra time to get things ready!