Thoughts about the upcoming 2015 chase season

[Alex Heimberger]

@Michael Gavan Sounds like a pretty obscure school play haha. Agree with not being a start to the tornado era. Just some cruddy years for tornado totals. Hopefully bounce back sooner then later.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Yes, I have to agree that it's "not over." Even in drought climatology there will still be opportunities to chase, although the grand chasing regions of the west are likely to produce fewer tornadoes. As long as the RH is making it north and northwest at some point, there will be tornadoes. I'm still thinking areas of Colorado and Nebraska will offer good chasing -- likely later in the season. We may also see more isolated storms as the cap builds -- which can be good or bad. This equates to taking more chances on those borderline bust / glory situations -- something I've done for years.

Unfortunately, for most of us chasers who do not have a zillion dollar life-saving budget, it might be more difficult to chase. There will be a lot more bust and down days, e.g., the last 3-4 years, and the opportunities may be further apart requiring more travel time and expenses.

Then again, as it becomes harder to chase, with fewer storms we may see less insanity on the roads near storms.

W.

 

[Jason Boggs]

I agree with Warren. In some of the situations that he pointed out, it may be a good thing.

 

[Shane Adams]

So it's been a crappy few years. Whatever. The biggest issue here is, today's chasers just think differently. Everything is very ego-centric, i.e. it all revolves around their personal perception of the pattern. To even suggest the tornado "era" is beginning to end, is nothing more than a gross over reaction to what is simple climatology. There will always be peaks and valleys. Four years ago when every violent tornado hit major cities, everyone said tornadoes killing hundreds would be the norm. Now they say tornadoes will be a thing of the past. I get it....you're chomping at the bit, especially you newbs. But c'mon folks, you just picked a shi*ty time to start, nothing more nothing less.

Here's a fun exercise I created years ago to make myself feel better and to more or less prove my point in the above paragraph: take any state, and do a yearly tornado average over just an arbitrary decade-long time span. The numbers will be all over the board. Do a 5-year span. Then do a 30. Then a 50. You'll see that the averages over longer time periods are gleaned through data that, when dissected into smaller incriments, varies greatly.

So settle down Beavis. Tornadoes aren't going anywhere.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Agree with Shane...even during the days of the Dust Bowl...there were still severe setups and even tornadoes in the Plains. I don't think people really get that being patient with storm chasing means waiting a few years sometimes.

 

[Taylor Wright]

So it's been a crappy few years. Whatever. The biggest issue here is, today's chasers just think differently. Everything is very ego-centric, i.e. it all revolves around their personal perception of the pattern. To even suggest the tornado "era" is beginning to end, is nothing more than a gross over reaction to what is simple climatology. There will always be peaks and valleys. Four years ago when every violent tornado hit major cities, everyone said tornadoes killing hundreds would be the norm. Now they say tornadoes will be a thing of the past. I get it....you're chomping at the bit, especially you newbs. But c'mon folks, you just picked a shi*ty time to start, nothing more nothing less.

So settle down Beavis. Tornadoes aren't going anywhere.

Easy Butthead, I knew that last sentence would get everyone worked up which is part of the reason I said it, not because I actually believe I will see the end of tornadoes. Mainly I was emphasizing that the crappy years are making me think irrational things. But is it unreasonable to think that maybe tornado climatology could change significantly and we're seeing the beginning of it? Just food for thought, not really implying anything here. I've studied enough statistics to know that drawing conclusions on such little sample space is ignorant. I'd agree with Warren that it could do some good in weening out the high-risk-only chasers.

 

[Jeff Duda]

But is it unreasonable to think that maybe tornado climatology could change significantly and we're seeing the beginning of it? Just food for thought, not really implying anything here. I've studied enough statistics to know that drawing conclusions on such little sample space is ignorant.

Yes, it is unreasonable that we are witnessing it over a span of just a few years. Climatology does not change that fast. In all reality, you'd probably need to go to the end of our lifetimes to start getting a decent enough sample size to start drawing any conclusions about tornado climatology changes.

We're just barely figuring out what climatology is. Changes in technology and population have driven the change in tornado counts over the years for the most part.

 

[Marc R. O'Leary]

I'll be chasing regardless of what this season brings. I'm a lightning guy first and foremost, so twisters are just a bonus. Having just moved to the DCVZ, im mostly looking forward to chasing storms from my back porch.

 

[Adam Lucio]

Regardless of what the long term future holds...THIS year, to me, looks sub-par. Pick your days wisely my friends. A low tornado count doesn't necessarily spook me though. 2013 was one of the quietest years on records and it was one of my personal best. I had 6 chases in a row with tornadoes. Many of them career type quality days. Not to mention 2 insane fall events. It only takes a handful of days.

I for one am ok with a season that has fewer chase days if it means they are of higher quality.

I hate and loathe 2012. Other chasers had a great 2012 with lots of tornadoes (many of them just on one single day, but I digress because 1 day can make a whole year.) The tornadoes will happen, its YOU who has to choose the right strategies that will allow yourself to get them.

 

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

The tornadoes will happen, its YOU who has to choose the right strategies that will allow yourself to get them.

^^^Bingo

Just to add to the point Shane and Marcus were talking about, glance at these tornado cases between 1950 and 1957 (drought that was considered worse than the dust bowl drought). Tornadoes still happen. Even look at 1970 for example, a year Amarillo received less than 10" of rain (half our normal), yet this day still happened. Possibly the worst outbreak the Panhandle has seen (4 F4s in one evening) -

Link to image - http://bangladeshtornadoes.org/UScases/041770/041770pth.gif

 

[Alex Heimberger]

Yeah, with a 1 year old won't be able to chase as much. So another slow year in tornado count isn't the worst. We'll be picking our chases out wisely. Would really like to get some amazing structure this year. Been a a few years since I've seen something like Broken bow SUP. Itching for that.

 

[James Gustina]

I'm really hoping for an early season run of tornado days towards the end of March just to kind of switch it up a bit from the past several seasons. Got a bad case of wanderlust and being couped up in Norman while its frigid out isn't too fun at the moment.

Edit: Deep into the wrong side of 180 hours but this is a comparatively nice change.

 

[chrisbray]

At this point I would accept 40s and 50s for the duration of march here in Illinois, save the severe for April and May, just give me something above freezing!!

 

[Jason Boggs]

I also agree that the tornadoes will occur, and we just have to be there when they do. I just hope that they are in chaseable terrain and not in the jungle. I know a lot of chasers go to the trees to see tornadoes, but I've never been that motivated. I know that's my own fault though. I'm off the last half of May into the first 2 days of June. Who knows what will happen this year, but I'll darn sure try to be there when it does.

 

[Adam Lucio]

I still dont like split flow patterns. Reminds me of a quote from my favorite TV show LOST.

"Thats false hope."
"Maybe, but its still hope."