James Gustina
Supporter
Split flow gives shades of 2009. I'm not particularly picky but I'd rather have a year like 2013 that I can actually chase instead of having to go to the fringes of the Alley almost every setup.
Thoughts about the upcoming 2015 chase season
- Thread starter Jason Boggs
- Start date
chrisbray
EF4
Last 4 or 5 GFS runs make me want to cry. Must the arctic air outbreak continue all the way through early march???
James Gustina
Supporter
Better that it happens now than in April like it did a few years ago. Seeing those sweeping cold fronts running through the GOM isn't particularly concerning yet. If it's still happening come mid-late March then something is probably very wrong.
Bob Hartig
EF5
I've hardly followed this thread, so I'm just boning up on it a bit now. I'll confess to mild surprise when I saw that you were the OP, Jason. But now I get it.
Shoot, got to have something to talk about--especially now, with these ridiculously cold temperatures scouring even memories of warm weather from most of the US. Jackson, MI, posted an overnight low of -29 F. And last night around 10:30, while out driving, my car thermometer registered as low as -14 degrees.But as far as how that'll affect tornado season, it's already been said. There'll be tornadoes somewhere, and I hope I get to see a few of them. I wouldn't mind if the Illinois playground lights up this spring and bring some of them closer to home.
IT.
IS.
FEBRUARY!
Calm down, people! There is a LONG upward tend ahead just by climatology. No reason to get so upset about something that is climatologically favored.
Jason Boggs
EF5
Just for the hell of it with no scientific evidence. Just a gut feeling...
[URL=http://s1383.photobucket.com/user/jboggs1/media/US_map_-_states-cacopy_zpsd3268f01.jpg.html]
[/URL]
[URL=http://s1383.photobucket.com/user/jboggs1/media/US_map_-_states-cacopy_zpsd3268f01.jpg.html]
[/URL]
Marc R. O'Leary
EF5
Jason...I hope you're right...that western circle is right in my backyard.
Jason Boggs
EF5
Oh yeah....I think CO will light up in June which it typically does.
chrisbray
EF4
Just to clarify I wasn't concerned about severe weather so much as getting above freezing temperatures at some point relatively soon
Jeremy Den Hartog
It may have been mentioned already - I haven't read through every single post here yet so if it has been I apologize. It will be interesting to see how a lack of a deep snow pack across much of the northern plains affects things. Unless things change, I'd "guess" there will be a fairly quick warm up in the middle of the Country once the pattern does change. Will it mean severe weather? Who knows, just one of many things to consider.
Jason Boggs
EF5
I forgot to mention this....I was at a spotter meeting yesterday and the WCM at the Amarillo NWS mentioned that in a week they will officially call this year an El Nino year around here.
Marcus Diaz
EF5
Jason, I too attended the class. And yes, most of the countries like Australia and Japan have declared this a weak El Nino pattern.
Some warm anomalies in the central Pacific and anomalies in western Canada. Hoping that means not too many more Arctic blasts in the next month. But I predict that we won't see our first decent setup until mid April. Probably some half-assed setups to change the overall pattern before something actually comes together.
Some warm anomalies in the central Pacific and anomalies in western Canada. Hoping that means not too many more Arctic blasts in the next month. But I predict that we won't see our first decent setup until mid April. Probably some half-assed setups to change the overall pattern before something actually comes together.
Verne Carlson
EF5
Southeast CO and w KS have gotten some decent snow from the last couple storms.
Jason Boggs
EF5
We have a few systems coming into the TX Panhandle which might bring some snow to the area. The pattern seems to be changing a bit compared to the last month or so.
Clarence Bennett
EF3
Just to clear it up, it takes 5 consecutive overlapping 3 months seasons of +0.5°C or -0.5°C to be declared El Nino or La Nina by the CPC. To date we are at 3 and will need DJF and JFM to be at +0.5°. It seems that DJF will be number 4, but we won't know about JFM until the first of April at which time ENSO will be declared Nino or not. Until then, it is just ENSO neutral...still premature to call it El Nino by our standard (CPC).
