Thoughts about the upcoming 2015 chase season

[Steve Miller TX]

Upper air patterns aside, the big change for 2015 is that Texas, New Mexico and Colorado are seeing a significant increase in precipitation the past few months compared to the past few years of historic and crippling drought. Heck, my backyard south of Dallas right now has standing water in it...something I haven't seen this time of year in quite a while. My thoughts are:

1) Evapotranspiration will aid boundary layer dewpoints.

2) The EML source region should be more "tame" regarding temperatures.

3) With the increased soil moisture and green vegetation, surface temperatures in the warm sector will be kept in check as well.

All of this will help with lower LCLs and a result in a more "tame" capping inversion and temper the incredible dewpoint cratering due to afternoon mixing that we've been accustomed too the past few years. I'm thinking this will translate to better dryline setups and spread out target areas more in 2015. This all of course is assuming we will maintain average to above average precipitation through April which there are doubts per the excellent posts previous to mine concerning the anticipated upper air pattern. It will be interesting to see how March plays out at least.

 

[chrisbray]

I guess it is somewhat encouraging that the models have the Pacific Ridge breaking down after this weekend at some point, let's hope that continues

 

[James Gustina]

Things have definitely perked up a bit on a ways out but the breakdown of that ridge continues to show up closer and closer. Feeling pretty good about where things are heading.

 

[Adam Lucio]

The fantasy GFS even trolls a setup around March 17th if you're brave enough to chase the lower MS valley

 

[James Gustina]

The fantasy GFS even trolls a setup around March 17th if you're brave enough to chase the lower MS valley

Last I saw there was even something showing up around the 14th-15th so its at least something to ogle at before it disappears as per usual.

 

[chrisbray]

Looks like we have all been successfully trolled. Replace low pressure systems with high pressure spilling in from Canada once again next weekend

 

[Brett Roberts]

Looks like we have all been successfully trolled. Replace low pressure systems with high pressure spilling in from Canada once again next weekend

The 12z ECMWF (for March 4) has a trough west/ridge east longwave pattern in place by late next week into the weekend. I highly doubt it would bring meaningful chase opportunities, but it would be a huge step in the right direction compared with most of the past 30-60 days.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Curious, how do you all view the ECMWF output? It's not available on sites like UCAR, Twisterdata, etc. It also doesn't seem to model the many parameters that the GFS does, at least not from what I've been told. Still, people seem to prefer it for medium-to-long range longwave pattern guesstimation, but I can't compare because I don't know of anyplace where I can look at, say, their 500 MB wind or surface Td/MSLP charts side-by-side.

 

[Andy Berrington]

Curious, how do you all view the ECMWF output? It's not available on sites like UCAR, Twisterdata, etc. It also doesn't seem to model the many parameters that the GFS does, at least not from what I've been told. Still, people seem to prefer it for medium-to-long range longwave pattern guesstimation, but I can't compare because I don't know of anyplace where I can look at, say, their 500 MB wind or surface Td/MSLP charts side-by-side.

Dewpoints usually have a pay requirement for the ECMWF. Otherwise (in terms of free sites), here's a few options:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ (click "Global" and then "ECMWF" from the drop-down menu)

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/ecmwf.php

College of Dupage's ECMWF output only goes out 168 hours, but it has the wind fields at 200, 500, 700 and 850 mb, which is great.
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/#

I'd also familiarize yourself with PSU's E-Wall if you haven't already done so.

 

[rdale]

Curious, how do you all view the ECMWF output?

http://weatherbell.com

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Thanks, guys.

 

[Brian G]

Curious, how do you all view the ECMWF output?

AccuWeather Pro is what I primarily use. Their graphics aren't as flashy as WeatherBell's, but they are more useful especially for severe weather forecasting. Their model animator is pretty great too.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Looks like we have all been successfully trolled. Replace low pressure systems with high pressure spilling in from Canada once again next weekend

Can't really say I was trolled since I never bought into it anyway. Not really any point to looking at such details that far out since predictability is so low at long ranges.

 

[chrisbray]

Oh, I'm not saying I really bought in to it by any means, but it's nice to not see artic air coming down for once.

 

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

Best way I found to view ECMWF, without having to pay is here - http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

It gives you some of the typical stuff you can get elsewhere, but you can view the CAPE on that map. On the right panel, you need to select "Model Data", then click the settings symbol to change it to ECMWF.