Thoughts about the upcoming 2015 chase season

[Warren Faidley]

Interesting article about the drought, based a little more on realistic research including tree ring data.

http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/1/e1400082

 

[chrisbray]

Well it doesn't mean much but you can officially see March 1 on the last nights 6z GFS run!!! Too bad it seems the CONUS will be dominated by a polar air mass for the entire foreseeable future...

 

[James Gustina]

Looking like a few Gulf Zambonis are gonna be coming through next week along with that potential winter weather event across the southern Plains. Good that we're having closer to average temps though across the Plains, I always get uneasy when we have prolonged periods of upper-60s in the middle of effing February.

 

[chrisbray]

Ok so what is the cause of the 500mb ridge over the eastern pacific and why will it not break down?

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Probably because of that massive eastern Continental trough. It's basically stuck over the Hudson Bay and until we get closer to the Spring, it'll stay put. This is the time of year I cackle at some people with their impatience. I think back on years like 2010 and 2011 that were very slow to get going and ended up being a great year overall. Patience people, patience.

 

[chrisbray]

I'm not in panic mode or anything, I was just curious why that ridge seems to sit there without being affected by systems moving through

 

[Conner Tune]

After last year's, "just wait for May!" mentality, I'm afraid of patience!

 

[Michael Gavan]

After last year's, "just wait for May!" mentality, I'm afraid of patience!

You just poured salt in my wounds. thanks. Not only did I go all-in on May 2014 and go bust, I was forced to put in 60 hour work weeks in June while everything and anything was going down.

 

[Jeff Duda]

I'm not in panic mode or anything, I was just curious why that ridge seems to sit there without being affected by systems moving through

I suspect the persistent, intense, and strengthening eastern North Pacific SST anomalies are playing a role in the consistent eastern Pacific ridging.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnec...begyear=2015&endmonth=2&endday=4&endyear=2015

I've seen at least a few shortwaves ride down south along the eastern side of the big ridge and break off, settling over the SW CONUS or NW Mexico/Baja area. If one of those could grab some of the tropical pwats out there we'd get more moisture in the southern US. If these SST anomalies persist into April or May, we may start to see impacts in a lack of zonally moving troughs across the CONUS. In other words, we'll be getting more northwest flow events.

 

[James Gustina]

The faint glimmer of hope at the end of the 240-hour period just got totally extinguished these past several runs. February turning on the A/C has not helped either.

 

[Jon Strebler]

The faint glimmer of hope at the end of the 240-hour period just got totally extinguished these past several runs. February turning on the A/C has not helped either.

I still see a little bit of hope heading into March. The GFS has been hinting at a potential pattern developing that would have a -PNA, +NAO, +AO. I don't have much confidence in the -PNA part actually happening, but I still like seeing it being shown in the long range. I'd rather be looking at that instead of the -EPO, +PNA, NW flow garbage that we are accustomed to. I doubt that I will be chasing much in the early season unless it was something big so I'm not all that worried about it either way, but I figured that I would put this out there so it isn't all doom and gloom in this thread.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Interesting article about the drought, based a little more on realistic research including tree ring data.

http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/1/e1400082

This paper gives a kind of scary and dire prediction. There's a strong signal towards increased likelihood for drought towards the end of the 21st century, and drought magnitudes exceeding decadal and the worst drought known to man (the Medieval period mega-drought between 1100-1300) across the central plains and southwest US.

There are some bright spots, although they are limited. Much of the signal of depleted soil moisture comes simply from increased temperatures and subsequently increased evaporation rather than significantly reduced rainfall (although rainfall reductions are still in play). Also, their Fig. 4 shows there is a not-small portion of the PDF for PDSI and soil moisture above the zero line, indicating there remains some chance that the increased drought frequency and intensity may not verify so strongly. However, much of the mass of the PDF lies left of the zero line, so the overall conclusion remains.

Of course, this article says nothing about the quality of future storm chasing seasons. There may be a warmer climate with less rain, but that doesn't mean there won't be supercells and tornadoes. Hell, it's possible that in a drier climate there'll be fewer HP storms and less grunginess. This study didn't say anything about the spatial structure of precipitation patterns (widespread WAA precip vs. isolated storm precipitation), so there is plenty of wiggle room associated with this prediction.

 

[James Gustina]

Looking like some fun boomers this weekend across central and eastern Oklahoma. Most of Oklahoma has a chance for some precip but it looks like the bulk of it will be away from the High Plains.

 

[Taylor Wright]

Thoughts: Jet seems less "locked-in" this year than this time last year, if my memory is right. Just from glancing at the GFS, it seems like less persistent blocking patterns... but unfortunately that's about as deep of an analysis my knowledge allows me to make this far out.

Hopes: I started chasing in 2012, and haven't necessarily had a good year yet. Just less bad years, such as 2014 (still missed all the big events due to work). 2014 was the most successful in that I had more resources, like mobile internet and GRLevel3 to chase with, and increased forecasting skills (nailed a couple tough forecasts in MO last year). However, all three years have been equally dismal and lacking in terms of tornado frequency/quality since I started chasing. I was able to bag three confirmed tornadoes in 2014, after one in 2012 and zero in 2013. I'm hoping 2015 will be more of a "normal" year. Hopefully it will bring less veer-back-veer wind profiles that I felt was on every single setup last year. I'm buying a camera (rather than relying on my phone) and possibly starting a website, so I'm hoping to get some photogenic tornado shots to add to my arsenal of decent structure shots. Most of all, I'm hoping to see something that makes me as ecstatic as Jim Cantore seeing thundersnow. If we have another dramatically downward trending year as far as tornado counts, I'm going to wonder if we're seeing the beginning of the end of the tornado era.

 

[Michael Gavan]

If we have another dramatically downward trending year as far as tornado counts, I'm going to wonder if we're seeing the beginning of the end of the tornado era.

So this is pontification...or philosophical to a degree, but..

If this was the 15th year in a row of very low counts, I'd still call it 'Normal'

I think we need to see something happen for a couple centuries, with no let up in sight, before we can call it a new normal or an "Era". Seriously. During the Maunder-minimum mini-ice-age period in Europe and the new fledgling United States, On either side of the year without a summer, There was probably a sense at the time that it was a new normal. Yet things eventually went "Back" to what we see now.

This sense that a few years of numbers that deviate from what we are used to (Which by the way amounts to a whopping 60 years worth of data) immediately means that we are trending toward something else leads to all these doom and gloom predictions. In 2005 we were convinced the east coast would be wiped off the face of the earth by a new hurricane "era." In 1980 after years of cold weather people were convinced that epic blizzards and -20 temps were signaling a new ice age. In 2011 we were told by some circles that high tornado counts were the new normal. In fact, nevermind that cities doubled in area and 4000 people with cell phones are chasing every black cloud east of the Appalachians....Look at the counts and damage numbers rise!!! In 1992 I participated in a short school play called "2010" where we were dressed like mummies and carried bags full of sunscreen to warn our parents that this will be the new normal once the ozone layer is gone. 5 years ago I watched at least 10 different broadcasts tell me that Lake Effect snow was a thing of the past because there were a couple years where it trended down. Now we are having record snowfalls and epic LES. Go figure.