The future of the season....

[Jonathan Whitehead]

well crap this is all making me look all the worst for ware.
I called two of my chaser buddies about a week ago and left them a voicemail saying that I think something big is coming down the pipe and to be prepared...
Well I dont think I can cry wolf anymore than i already have BUT
my gut still wont shut up...I still think we here in the south plains are in for something large and I mean huge...May 29 2004ish. Screw the models. I just got the feeling.. but of course i said that last week too. But time will only tell.

 

[Marc Austin]

Well I figured if anyone had any negativity to add to this post it would be me. I too was very encouraged after viewing the long-range models last week and saw that May15-17 looked like it would be a great 3 day chase event. Now that I'm hearing all this about NW flow and it's getting closer and closer to our departure for the plains on May 14th, I can't help but feel a little discouraged. I wish I could say... so what? There's always June... but we live in FL and have been planning this trip since February. So our weeks are May 14 through May 28. You would think there would be at least one day of chasing at least right? I guess we're still far enough out... anything could change.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

well crap this is all making me look all the worst for ware.
I called two of my chaser buddies about a week ago and left them a voicemail saying that I think something big is coming down the pipe and to be prepared...
Well I dont think I can cry wolf anymore than i already have BUT
my gut still wont shut up...I still think we here in the south plains are in for something large and I mean huge...May 29 2004ish. Screw the models. I just got the feeling.. but of course i said that last week too. But time will only tell.
[/b]

Well if there is one thing the fantasy progs might be better than it is likely one's gut. For what it is worth the latest gfs run didn't seem to be as extremely crappy.

I don't need to see some major trough out west to be happy. I do need to see something without a huge trough to the east of us. Last night's EC seemed to want to do what the GFS wanted to do(major east US trough). We'll see if it has a slightly better trend today like the gfs(too bad one has to wait so long to see the runs on that).

 

[Dan Robinson]

There's no need nor reason to worry nor get excited yet about May 15 and beyond. We can't really tell what will happen after a week's time. Even forecasting less than a week out is sketchy, but the models do give some glimpse at the likely large-scale pattern up to day 7. What we do know is that next week will likely not be the best of setups. After that it is anybody's guess.

We're planning our trip based only on what the upcoming first week looks like, in the hopes that at least our first week on the Plains will be promising. No way to plan for the second or third weeks. Next week looks bad so we just wait one more week. We'll be out there when it is good, and if it keeps staying good, we stay, if not, we go home.

I don't think there is anything to worry about unless we get to May 20 and the ensembles agree on a NW flow regime persisting through the end of the month.

 

[Cstok]

The flight is booked and so is the rental car, so I am off on Sunday night. I will be out from the 8th - 18th.

While not ideal, it is not the huge ridge like last year, and even with that I did have a few good days, no tornados, but some good sups. With all the variability in the models over the last week, I am convinced things could quickly begin to swing the other way... so I am going to stay positive... at least I have the opportunity / ability to chase at all.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/ecmwf_850_temp_144.gif

May? Today's EC showing us no love after Tuesday. Hopefully it won't get stuck there and will at least move out. Not only that, lets also hope the gulf doesn't get severely whacked over with strong cool, dry air.

 

[bill mudd]

Well I figured if anyone had any negativity to add to this post it would be me. I too was very encouraged after viewing the long-range models last week and saw that May15-17 looked like it would be a great 3 day chase event. Now that I'm hearing all this about NW flow and it's getting closer and closer to our departure for the plains on May 14th, I can't help but feel a little discouraged. I wish I could say... so what? There's always June... but we live in FL and have been planning this trip since February. So our weeks are May 14 through May 28. You would think there would be at least one day of chasing at least right? I guess we're still far enough out... anything could change.
[/b]

Marc,
If you had to pick a couple of weeks in advance, the overall stats are with you on the ones you picked. You'll probably get a number of good days I'm sure (especially if you are not only tornado destinated).
Seems TX and NM have been banging four days in a row (probably not ideal chase country I dunno know).
Seem that the $3 gallon is maybe a new factor from all the talk? A lil more caution? perhaps. Anyway gooduck!

 

[Kenny Drake]

Do remember that you dont need to be on the north exit region of a trough for a good severe weather setup. These last few days are an EXCELLENT example of how the south entrance region can also be fine. Of course, the shear wont be as good, but per what happened to day, obviously adequate. Also the storms will generally be slower than those moving along near a jet max. Trough to the east, or trough to the west, both are good news. Of course, being in the north exit region is still preferable.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Do remember that you dont need to be on the north exit region of a trough for a good severe weather setup. These last few days are an EXCELLENT example of how the south entrance region can also be fine. Of course, the shear wont be as good, but per what happened to day, obviously adequate. Also the storms will generally be slower than those moving along near a jet max. Trough to the east, or trough to the west, both are good news. Of course, being in the north exit region is still preferable.
[/b]

Maybe a trough to the north or northeast, but not a trough to the east. There is nothing good about this...

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/ecmwf_500_spd_144.gif

Hopefully that won't happen, and if it does it moves right along.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Kenny,
The action area today wasn't really in the right-exit region of the upper-level jet streak. Per the 0z NAM initialization, it looks like the action area was in the left-exit region of a jet streak coming in from the west... In fact, the 0z NAM initialization hints at a couplet jet structure, with the area also being in the right-entrance region of another jet streak aligned from northcentral OK through Illinois.

That said, you are correct in saying that being in the left-exit region isn't a necessity, and a paper published a couple of years ago (I think) found that there have been more significant tornado events in the right-exit region (typically subsident region per transverse circulation) than in the right-entrance region (rising region). This does make a little sense, since the indirect circulation in the exit region of a jet streak can enhance low-level warm-air advection and strengthen southerly-southeasterly flow at the surface, while the direct thermal circulation in the entrance region tends to discourage strong return flow and low-level warm-air advection.

If anything, I'd say that the past few days in TX have shown that we don't need the 'synoptically-evident' setups to make for good chasing. I would have liked for the setups to have been a couple hours closer to me since I've been too busy with school work to chase 5-6 hrs from home each day, but I'm sure those on chasecation or on tours aren't complaining much (even though this wasn't the typical southwest-flow-aloft setup). Sure, the medium-term outlook looks very bad for any large-scale event, but if you're on a chasecation, you're usually willing to drive however long to the action area anyway. I'm sure there will be a few events from now through mid-May, though the prospects of a major east-coast trough and the Gulf getting wiped is far from encouraging.

 

[John Hudson]

Sure, the medium-term outlook looks very bad for any large-scale event, but if you're on a chasecation, you're usually willing to drive however long to the action area anyway.
[/b]

I also believe that isolated severe weather events will be ongoing through this month, provided the infamous Death Ridge doesn't rear it's ugly head. 2006 has gotten off to an amazing start, but I think we've gotten a bit spoiled, too. Some of April's setups have been big producers, in some cases literally dumping twisters on our doorsteps. For April, the statistics are just mind-boggling; 324 (preliminary) for April 2006, compared with the meagre final total of 132 for April of last year. March stats are every bit as shocking, and you can see the entire table here.

Looks like the "chase" is going back into storm chasing, at least for the foreseeable future.

John
VE4 JTH

 

[Brian Press]

Hey St'ers,

I got a buddy pass from a pilot friend for $60 from LAX to Colorado Springs. Looking at this Mon/Tue. What do you guys think? It looks like some good dewpoints coming up and the upper level winds look to be out of the NW then West. What am I missing? Is this not a good setup?

Why is the Southwest flow better than Northwest. I would think that if you have a SE serface wind and a NW aloft, you would have more turning. Not true? To much turning? Unidirectional?

Thanks for your thoughts,

b.p.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Monday/Tuesday do look ok. It's the point after that that continues to not look good at all. NW flow can work if you can get moisture up under it. This nw flow is going to carve out a big trough in the east and send a cold front south into the gulf(Wed onward). So chase it before the moisture is gone. The newest GFS tonight sits the low over the east half of the US for a good week. Anything is better than that lol. Give me a death ridge instead...please.

NW flow over near se surface flow can work, but I don't like the turning to be near 180 degrees. You get too much turning with height and your storm is just venting into its inflow and that can't work. I'd much rather have south under nw flow or even ssw/sw.

Monday and Tuesday certainly look like chase days though. Hell I'm tempted to go way east on Wednesday if I have to if it keeps looking like it looks after that.

Still hoping for a drastic change though! It sucks not seeing much of anything different on run after run.

Isn't the stormtrack yearly picnic next weekend(1st possible date)? It might be safe!

 

[Brian Press]

Thanks Mike!

Ya know I never really thought about the surface winds being S or SW under a NW flow. Makes perfect sense about the storms downdrafts falling right into the inflow. It looks like the GFS is saying S / SW surface winds for Mon / Tue. The ETA (is the ETA the NAM?) looks more SE.

What area do you think will be good Mon / Tue? To me it looks like Central Kansas for the cold front / panhandles for the dryline / triple front. Is this correct? Do you guys use the 0-30 Streamline model to find the fronts? HPC? I'm still relatively new to making my own forecasts. I used to just use the SPC and go off of that. I am really eager to learn more and more.

Thanks again for your thoughts,

B.p.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://www.wxcaster2.com/central_models.htm

I usually just use Earl's stuff. I use the sfc LI chart. 18z Monday for instance Nam has a small wave come through early so who knows if that will be true or not. But I would guess a c KS location for now would be a fair guess this far out. Obviously it could be anywhere in the Central or Southern Plains and/or multiple areas. TX looks to have a sharp dryline with backed flow east of it as well as flow aloft. Monday could be a pretty good day the more I look at it, lol. I'm sure someone will start a forecast thread on these. The gfs and nam seemed to split some for Tuesday(guessing off 84hr nam at 12z tues). I haven't bothered to study either day too indepth. There should be moisture, boundaries and marginal to possibly decent flow.