Tim Gonyo
EF2
I'm all in for a NW flow. That gives WI its tornado outbreaks usually.
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The future of the season....
- Thread starter Andrea Griffa
- Start date
J.B. Dixon
EF2
I have no choice -- My mini-chase vacation starts this weekend and runs through around Thursday the 11th. If it's crap, then it's crap. I'm optimistic, but as others have said, it appears that any significant pattern changes look to be a couple weeks out.
Chad Ringley
EF2
Quite concerned about the front end of our chasing vacation (May 11-15) and maybe the entire lot (May 11-21) not being too good based on the latest ensembles. I'm not even sure why I stress out about it because I know the next time the models are run, the solution will be completley different.
bill mudd
EF4
I dont see all of the days as being crap, unless you are only "tornado bound"
there have been some great MSC shots coming out of TX the last few days
plus the CPC/SPC 4 to 8 has indicated severe from the 6th thru the 11th AND it is MAY with storms predicted during that time frame - ITS MAY and there are storms YA simply GOTTA CHASEDan Robinson
Yep, the models are not going to give us much to bank on the way things are going now. Take last May for example - on the 14th the GFS did a major flip flop from a nice pattern 3-4 days out to a death ridge and NW flow. We actually left to start our trip and saw the bad news the second day of the drive. We went home.
The opposite could happen this month. A quiet pattern 3-5 days out could quickly flip into a nice trough leaving everyone scrambling to get to Kansas the next day.
Nothing to do now but pack up and be ready, patient and flexible.
nickgrillo
EF5
Despite being on my "chase vacation" (boy, I wish my family lived in KS)... I have decided to sit the past (and today and tomorrow) western TX ops out. It's not that I don't wanna chase, but I am "based" out of Kansas City and it will have costed me a lot of money to get to ABI (and likely end up chasing southwest of there) and then back (I will be in the KC area for the time being). The past two TX days did seem to result in one big "supercell of the day" south along the dryline... However, I was heavily worried about the lack of low-level shear yesterday (e.g. weak 0-1 km SRH -- along with unfriendly LCLs) so I continued to stay in KC -- and ended up chasing the tornado-warned supercell in southeast KS and southwest MO (and it weakened once we neared central Vernon Co, MO). In addition, the WRF doesn't seem to initiate precip in the moist sector today until afterdark.
It does appear that my mind is not cognizant of the fact that it is May now -- and that I should be chasing just about everything. Many May setups bring magic (and are poorly resolved by the models). The GFS sure doesn't give a hell of a lot of hope for at least the next week or so... However, by the 8th-10th, boundary layer moisture returns to the central plains -- with WNW flow aloft and southeasterly surface flow. There will obviously be plenty of strong instability and vertical shear profiles supportive of supercells across the central plains by early next week... So, I suppose I can just sit around and wait. I just wish the long-range GFS would open southwest flow aloft and bring in a nice amplified trough into the central plains <_< :huh:
This May looks to be more miserable than last yearmikegeukes
EF5
As a general rule I never look at model data beyond 126 hrs.
144 hours is tops for me, in looking at models.
MikeMike Hollingshead
Maybe it is time to look for a new hobby. If the gfs is anywhere close to right this pattern is pretty much as bad as it gets(next week on). There might be one chase op early next week then a massive trough is carved out in the eastern half of the US. It then sits there for days before scooting east only to have another one take its place(yeah yeah that is WAY out there).
There should be some kind of warning before laying your eyes on such a run. Maybe the EC will brighten things up some.
Andrea Griffa
EF5
Mike I completely agree with you. Too bad for the new run of gfs that confirms what I was saying yesterday.
Guys, my advice is to come and chase in Italy where I don' see a storm from 15 days. :lol:
I'm kidding, but it's normal to have a ridge over the western States after a dynamic period. Nothing is lost. Dan is right.
P.S may 9 is not bad.Dan Robinson
Postponing our chase trip until at least next weekend.
Nothing to worry about yet - it's still early. Lots of May left.Shane Adams
Over the years I have strayed away from staring at the calendar. The fact that we're coming into a crap pattern is no more alarming now than it would've been in late March or April. Chase season is chase season. If May goes to crap, so what? There's a thing called "June" that comes afterwards, and ask any of several chasers how this "June" thing did last year. I don't get worked up if a certain month with a reputation doesn't perform...because chase season is a lot more than just May.
Using a newbie/transplant chaser mentality, I guess you could say May has become the Oklahoma of chase months :lol:
Justin Turcotte
EF5
When the GFS has lower 1000-500 thickness values over ND in mid May than was experienced in much of January then I have to be skeptical. Ensembles don't look much better for an active stretch in the Plains. When I was in NE in 2004 there wern't many set-ups in my domain until mid May. Last year in ND my first real chase wasn't until late May. With this in mind I have no reason to believe the atmosphere won't heat up again later in the month. For us Northern Plains folks most of the best chasing is in June, July, and August anyway. A lot of moisture has been dumped in a good portion of the Plains which will aid with evapo-trans in the comming weeks. Now just need to see how it all plays out. Silver lining is if the season is lack luster than I won't be pumping that much $3 gas in the tank.
John Hudson
EF4
Thought I'd like to throw in my 2 cents on the discussion. My chase trip is booked, and I'll be arriving in Wichita on Tues., May 9. Going to hang out until May 19, and I'll just hope there will be something chaseable. If not, I suppose I'll just have to settle for relaxing in the pool, enjoying the hospitality Kansans are so famous for.
Models are models, and nothing more. They are definitely not a crystal ball; as we all know the conclusions they provide can change in a heartbeat. I've often found their performance to be mediocre, on the best of days.
I've gotta chase, and that's all there is to it. If I constantly wait for the ideal time to chase based on the models, I'll drive myself insane, because I've got to book my airline tickets a week in advance.
Maybe I'll get crap, and maybe I won't. When June and July come around, I can always chase over the border (only three hours away) into North and South Dakota. And, I don't "need" a tornado to feel satisfied (thank God!). Some good lightning pics will be enough to blow my hair back, and a tornado is just icing on the cake if it happens.
John
VE4 JTH
Kevin Myatt
EF2
The 12Z has already changed it all again and it doesn't look half bad ... heck, just use a dartboard right now ...Dave Lewison
EF1
Well, as Shane mentioned, nature doesn't check her calendar too often. There is still June. This works well for folks who live out on the Plains, but for those of us poor saps who have to book travel plans from far-flung distances, it can be very frustrating. I would rather take my chances at a somewhat meager pattern than keep waiting and waiting to see if a good setup ever materializes. Meanwhile, you'd end up missing events like those in TX over the past few days, for which the GFS didn't have much of a grasp on last weekend.
Fact is, it's not a great upcoming pattern. But it's also not a death ridge. There is flow...there is moisture (well, maybe in S. TX, but it's there). You have those things and you can get supercells. My vacation has been booked for several weeks. I'll be out May 8-19....and we'll see what materializes.
One thing looks rather certain at this point....no May 12 super hail bombs this year! (Of course, that can all change in a heartbeat too).Similar threads
