The future of the season....

[Brian Press]

Thanks Mike,

Very helpful. I guess I am seeing what you all are seeing concerning this Mon Tue. My eyes are learning the skies.

Someone just started a threat for Monday. Looken good!

B.p.

 

[Kenny Drake]

Yea my comparison of SW jet entrance region to the TX setup today was flawed. Sorry was tired heh figured I didnt need to actually look at observations to know for sure I guess thats what happens when you dont. Anyways yes Im seeing at least a potential for Mon and Tue this week, I really want it to be monday personally as I have final exams all day Tuesday and only 1 on Monday at 8am. I'm wishing at this point, I never take models too seriously until about 24 hours out for narrowing an area of good instability and wind profiles.

 

[Chris Hayes]

I'm mostly looking at the week of May 15, and onward. I know, its a long way out, but I still look at the GFS to see what it's "predicting". I'm not too familiar with reading 500mb, 850mb, etc. From what I saw, the latest run of the GFS for the week after next does offer some hope as it shows 500mb troughs making their way across the country. If I'm reading it wrong, someone correct me

 

[Chad Ringley]

If you asked me to draw on paper the "worst-case" scenario for chasing, some of the things you see in the GFS Enembles and operational GFS runs paint this picture for me.

The trof that develops in the E CONUS is massive, and the cf associated with it will likely scour the Gulf or stunt any NWD return of moisture after May 13. The NC State chasing vacation was supposed to be scheduled between May 12-21, but at this point, I believe we might have to postpone/cancel the entire trip.

There is some hints at a more progressive pattern in the W after 15 May. Some ensemble members developed a "quasi-death" ridge over the Pac NW a few cycles ago, but most have backed off the amplitude slightly. The southern stream in the operational GFS looks more active as well.

However, as Mike H. very eloquently pointed out, the ridge in the W would be a heck of a lot better than the current fcst..at least we'd have a shot at some dryline/cap days. Why is the atmosphere so cruel?

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Chad,

This morning's 12z GFS run shows a change for the better! We still get an east-coast trough by the end of next week, but after that, we see several episodes of western US troughing! The previous GFS runs have shown a big trough in the east replacing the upcoming eastern US trough that digs at the end of next week, but the latest GFS run seems to show that we'll have at least two good episodes of southwesterly flow aloft over the plains after the end-of-next-week eastern trough. Again, this is one run, but I hope the trend continues! Of course, it looks like the strongest flow aloft will be in the central and northern plains, but that's far better than strong northwesterly flow!

For example, see HERE (300hr) and HERE (384hr(. Of course, that's beyond 10 days, so that forecast should be taken with as much hesitancy as the previous east-coast-trough solution. Again, it does look like the southern plains may be ridged out, but southwesterly flow a little farther north? Gotta dig that! The upperlevel pattern slightly resembles an omega block (with a trough to the west and a trough to the east), and I wouldn't mind if it all shifted a hair to the east.

EDIT: While the GFS trend may be for the better, the 0z ECMWF continues to show a massive upper-level low across the eastern US, with very strong northwesterly and westerly flow on the west and south side of the cut-off low. Eek.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

That is definitely a nice change on the GFS. Hopefully the 12z EC will come around too.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Yeah Great Plains never fail :lol:

I too see a nice changing in the pattern. Let's see if they confirm on the next two runs.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Yes this is nice to see! But, just as it's too early to say the season is wasted, it's also too early to say it's not. I wouldn't be suprised to see those troughs disappear and reappear several times through the period, giving us a roller coaster and subsequent 20 more pages to this thread

We'll have good chase days somewhere by the end of the month. They might be in NE and SD, but that's fine with me.

 

[John Hudson]

We'll have good chase days somewhere by the end of the month. They might be in NE and SD, but that's fine with me.
[/b]

Dan, that's completely suitable from my perspective. NE and SD means I could skip the airport madness, and drive down instead.

BTW, postponed my chase tour, as the airline can change the booking for sometime later for a moderate (?) $$$ outlay. I just didn't see any point in going ahead with things settling down like this. If conditions fire up further north for a good part of the season, I'll be able to make several journeys by auto for the cost of the airfare. B)

That trof off the SE Conus is a bugger, though. Guess we'll have to wait and see.

John
VE4 JTH

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Chad,

This morning's 12z GFS run shows a change for the better!
[/b]

False hope. Latest GFS and ECMWF indicate that we will see at least one high-amplitude trough over the eastern US through the next 10 days. Last night's ECMWF also showed a nearly high-over-low block over the eastern US and eastern Canada area, indicating that this trough may persist for some time. Again, hopefully it's wrong, and this model play-by-play is kinda worthless. I'm guilty.

 

[Chris Hayes]

LOL :lol: You gotta love how computer models work. 06Z GFS outlook plotted as did the ECMWF a trough in teh eastern US the week of May 15. Now, it's back to a possibly chaseable pattern. This is per the 500mb map. Need to make a computer that analyzes the weather as it occurs, so it gets smarter, and improves on making computer models. That's the ticket

 

[nickgrillo]

Looking back... This grim future sort of reminds me of the last week of May 2005 (from about the 22nd to about the 2nd of June really) with a east coast trough yielding strong northwest flow across much of the plains (leaving most of the area stable and convectiveless). Then, of course, the pattern changed quite nicely after the 10-day period of crap (with a 7-10 day long period of excellent chase days, especially for myself -- from SD southward into the TX panhandle) flow. For the record, the first 10-12 days of May 2004 also had strong northwest flow across much of the plains (before the pattern changed and southwest flow opened up across the central US).

The 6z GFS is a tad less grim, at least in my perspective... However, it still shows the massive eastern US trough churning and promoting deep northwest flow across a lot of the plains through the next week or so. I think the pattern will eventually change for the better in a couple of weeks... We'll see. I think we might be able to sneak a chase day or two in between now and then (besides this week)... At least I hope <_<

 

[Dan Robinson]

The omega block does look menacing for mid May - but all it has to do is be further east than forecast and we're in business. It's also got that pretty sweet trough out west that, as long as it doesn't de-amplify a great deal, could be excellent when it eventually does move east.

Also, does anybody, including me, remember that it is only the 7th? Still 24 days (over 3 weeks) left in May. At least Omega Block is showing up now, about a week or so earlier than the eternal Hudson cutoff low did last year. Even if this year is a repeat of last, we'll be in business by the 27th and Memorial Day weekend. Maybe won't be a whole month of chasing, but five good days can make a season.

 

[Dan Cook]

I'm just hoping June is good.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Day 14-17 looking good now. I also think I see a west coast trough appearing on the 9,120 hour GFS for next spring.

Waiting for the next run.....