The future of the season....

[Marc Austin]

Yes, the 23/24 system does appear favorable for severe weather, potentially even a dryline setup in the OK/TX panhandles, but of course by the next run it will be in SD/ND based on the accuracy and fluctuation of the models I have seen in past days. This is encouraging though because it could be that one day during the two weeks that makes the trip worthwhile. We'll have to see if this trough is still there in the next run.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

We'll have to see if this trough is still there in the next run.
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It isn't. the 12Z run now has a giant ridge. The point here is that it is fruitless to look and get all excited at any particular opererational GFS run beyond 7 days. The ensembles are a much better way to try and judge what the longer range pattern may be....however even this method is not terribly reliable- a few days ago it looked a bit encouraging for the period after May 20, now not so good. I think there is no getting around the fact that there is going to be at least a 10-14 day period where chasing will not be an activity any of us will be engaging in. :angry:

Matt

 

[Andy Rice]

I'm going from the 25th to the 4th.... so all eyes on these wishcasting long range models.. Allthough that far out I look for ensembel support... which actually isn't so bad for 384 hours! Trough moving through the West is showing up on many of the ensemble runs.....

 

[nickgrillo]

Well... It looks like the liklihood of anything worthwhile in the next 10 days appears to be incredibley slim (and I am on my chase vacation). I am thinking of going back home and coming back out in late May (or whenever this damn pattern changes) but the pain in the neck 10hr drive home and ~$70 it costs me to do it in gas costs (and only to repeat it in a couple of weeks likely) is really annoying me. Ah well... <_<

 

[Marc Austin]

Well, after feeling like this coming week would be a chaser's worst nightmare, we have decided to move our chase trip back one week, so now we will be chasing from May 20 to June 4. Hopefully something will give and this blocking pattern will weaken. The GFS continues to show this block in place, although a little weaker through the end of this week! I'm just hoping for the best, and I think we have a better shot if we postpone our trip by a week. I keep dreaming that his year will turn out exactly like last year when there were some amazing chases during early June! Wish us luck!

 

[Andy Wehrle]

The question is now, "What future of the season? Those of you who have seen tornadoes already should thank your stars because that will not be happening for awhile. My last decent thunderstorm was April 13, not counting the surprise (and severe-warned) 2 rumbles of thunder and 30-second sprinkle on May 3.

On the plus side, chase years that have been average or lousy in the Plains have brought major outbreaks in Wisconsin (1988, 1996, 2005). 2004 was an anamoly being active in both areas.

 

[Marc Austin]

On the plus side, chase years that have been average or lousy in the Plains have brought major outbreaks in Wisconsin (1988, 1996, 2005). 2004 was an anamoly being active in both areas.
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by the way... do you happen to know what months these Wisconsin outbreaks occured in?

 

[Paul Knightley]

I remember May 2001 - we arrived with this very scenario in place...no chasing from Monday-Friday of the 1st week, but the ridge began to shift over the weekend. North-west flow aloft atop moist Gulf air gave us a great squall line on the 27th May (after chasing decent storms on the 26th)...thereafter, the second week of our trip was dominated by mainly westerly upper flow, and we chased almost everyday. I have a feeling the ridge will begin to shift later next week.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Guesscast not all that great now. The ensemble mean shows little amplification of the western trough, and both it and the operational GFS retrograde the trough back west as the eastern low re-strenghthens, setting up a ridged-Plains Omega block on the 27th. This run makes it look like the midlevel jet maxes won't make it east of the Rockies through the period, with the eastern low causing NW/N flow to never really leave despite the close approach of the trough.

 

[nickgrillo]

I decided to head back home... <_<... I wasn't gonna wait around away from home twiddling my thumbs for this pattern to break down. In fact, I don't see any signs of it breaking down within the next 2 weeks! I really, really hope we get west coast troughing by the last few days of May / early June, which is when I'll return to the plains. I did the same thing in 2005... I went out in late April, came back home in mid-May after the eastern US troughing/plains ridging pattern setup, and then releft once I saw southwest flow aloft in the mid-range forecast (with favorable low-level wind trajectories off the gulf to advect in rich boundary layer moisture into the plains, ahead of ejecting shortwaves, riding the increasingly progressive flow).

Man, I should have chased more of April... ... Please, please, let June be awesome...

 

[Jayson Prentice]

I put out another long range forecast this morning, scroll down about half way.

Long Range Forecast

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Jayson - re Omeage Block 2 - did you see the GFS 12z run today ~ or am clutching at straws with this models output.

 

[Jayson Prentice]

I wrote that before this mornings runs were complete, I was using mainly last nights GFS run for the basis of that forecast. As of right now I don't have a complete run of this mornings GFS run in. I've checked a couple sites and I only have through about 162 hours in.

What exactly are you seeing/referring too?

 

[Stuart Robinson]

I know that we are in GFS crystal ball fantasy time - my GFS 12z output feed (which is complete out to 384 hours) moves the Western trough East into the plains around the 27th May.

This is only a trend and has no other GFS run support so it remains to be seen if this will come true.

PLEASE GFS latch on to this. The last thing we need is an OB2 (Omega Black Two)

again pure model fantasy land we are talking about...

 

[Jayson Prentice]

Yes you are right with this mornings GFS run it does look like they smooth the flow out and I don't see the second omega block developing behind the system(s) coming through in the 19-23 timeframe. We are definately in fantasy land and the GFS seems like it doesn't know what to do... So looks like the future of the season is up in the air once we get to late May.