The future of the season....

[Jayson Prentice]

Well at least the GFS is having problems keeping the omega in the forecast, it would be downright terrible to see it consistant in keeping in the forecast. And as you mention there are some models that don't want to develop it so that gives us some hope.

This doesn't look to affect me too much beings I'm taking a class these next two weeks and will have limited chasing if any. Plus, if we wait until June for things to fire back up again we usually are talking KS/MO and north which is just fine for me living in northern IA. Either way we look to have a lull for some time, at least a week and then the GFS has a couple disturbances coming through, but with northwest flow I don't know if they will have much moisture to work with at all. After that we are going to have to wait and see if Omega #2 come into view or if we can get back out on the road.

 

[Jason Persoff]

I just started reading this thread today (been hectic at work), and I have to say it is nail-biting (in a Stephen King kinda way).

For what it's worth, I cannot remember a year where I've chased and the medium-to-late forecasts didn't contain some anomoly that spelled imminent doom. Moisture return, particularly an excellent LLJ, has been the biggest supporter or detractor of severe weather. Last year Tds were pretty pathetic with deep moisture usually not more than 800mb and surface Tds in the 60s into NM/TX. That was all to blame from the gulf being shut down. Since there are a lot of variables that affect moisture return, I think we have to wait and see. While no specific date comes to mind, I can remember several Caprock days where CAPEs were >4k and the dewpoints were in the 70s where svr weather broke out. Still, I'm pretty tired of flying in late May to see NW winds aloft.

For those of us continuing to wishcast, I just looked at the ensemble models at 312hr and there is definitely a trend toward moving the low over the Rockies with a very nice trough taking shape by 360hr. Any impulses that travel with that and interact with deep moisture will have terrific strength, right?

Look here: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/z50...m_f312_nhbg.gif
Here: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/z50...m_f336_nhbg.gif
and Here: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/z50...m_f360_nhbg.gif

This was from the 0z 12 May run. So...here's hoping to late May. My experience over the past few years suggests that the models are usually a few days too eager, so this may actually be closer to May 30-June 1, but I still think it's not too discouraging (and much better than anything I saw last year).

 

[Andrea Griffa]

For those of us continuing to wishcast, I just looked at the ensemble models at 312hr and there is definitely a trend toward moving the low over the Rockies with a very nice trough taking shape by 360hr. Any impulses that travel with that and interact with deep moisture will have terrific strength, right?

Look here: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/z50...m_f312_nhbg.gif
Here: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/z50...m_f336_nhbg.gif
and Here: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/z50...m_f360_nhbg.gif

This was from the 0z 12 May run. So...here's hoping to late May. My experience over the past few years suggests that the models are usually a few days too eager, so this may actually be closer to May 30-June 1, but I still think it's not too discouraging (and much better than anything I saw last year).
[/b]

Day after day my thinking is that till may 20th we won't see nothing more than bad stuff on the Plains. Then everything can change, we all know how models change in a little time.
Anyway, sometimes it can be funny to see 384 h maps even though the real consistence of the forecast is equal 0. I never go ahead 180h to make a forecast.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnamavn1801.png

So, I think that May will come back on 23-24th with an explosion of storms. As usually may 24 and may 29 are my favourite dates.
But it's still too early to say something that could verify.

 

[Jeremy Bower]

I think bottom line is the answer to the question to what is in store for the future of the season?

We have no clue.

I've been looking at GFS on and off for the last week and the ensemble forecasts as well and it seems there is some type of change every new run. I know this is hard for everyone,myself included, because we all want to see storms and after last year's setups or there lack of, we want May and June this year to be highly active. I think the key to 2006 right now is patience and unforunately many of us have to schedule chase vacations months in advance with the hope that conditions will be favorable for severe weather. When we are in the pattern like we have right now its real easy to say that this year is a down year. This pattern will change at some point, I think we all know that. Question is when will it change? Like I said in my previous post, models are models...they could be right and they could be wrong. Anything beyond 7 days really should be taken lightly especially when it comes to any mesoscale convective possbilities (good or bad). I personally think we will see the return of severe weather at some point here soon but like I said patience is what we should have right now. We don't know what the rest of this month and June has in store yet and all it takes is one event to change this year from a "bad year" into a "good year". My trip is May 20 to June 3 and I have no choice, that is my allotted time to chase.

Don't count out 2006 yet, anything can happen.

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

12 Z GFS along with some support of the ensembles is showing chaseable weather in the Plains for the week of the 21th. I hope the trend continues. My chase vacation begins the 19th until 26th. If nothing to chase...my fallback plan is a week of camping. It will be a good vacation...storms or no.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...0_lu_loop.shtml

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/fcsts/ensframe.html

 

[Shane Adams]

One thing for certain, new chasers who came along in 2003-2004 and got spoiled are getting a good taste of a more typical chase year in 2005-2006. It's not really a down year, it's more an average year IMO. Each time these "oh God what happened to the season?" threads come up I think about the chasers who endured 1987-89, and I consider myself fortunate. It could be much much worse.

 

[Gabe Garfield]

For what it's worth, the GFS ensemble shows some solution divergence after Day 7.

I really can't believe how persistent this pattern has been; then again, last year also featured a ridiculously long-lived East Coast upper trough. I would much rather have had a poor early season than to have most of May hosed, but that seems to be the case.

In my opinion, though, I think the last week in May should be just fine (when the current pattern breaks down). It only takes one or two good chases to make a season, so I'm still fairly optimistic. And look on the bright side, we're not spending oodles of dollars for gasoline!

Gabe

 

[Matthew Crowther]

For what it's worth, the GFS ensemble shows some solution divergence after Day 7.
[/b]

This is from the 12Z ensemble runs. I am also optimistic about the prospects for late May.

Matt

 

[nickgrillo]

I didn't look at anything terribley in-depth, but the latest GFS run seems to bring a positive trend, by getting rid of the east coast trough and zonal flow opening up across much of the plains towards 264hrs (with favorable low-level trajectories off the gulf during the period). In fact, the latest GFS shows considerable west coast troughing by the last week of May (with southwest flow opening up across much of the central US).

At least it's positive... ... I wanna be back out on the plains within the next couple of weeks.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Yeah the 00z GFS for what it's worth has significant W.Coast trough aimed at the N/C Plains for possible ejection after Memorial Day 5/29. It looks pretty strongly capped south of I-80 up until then, but could be some good events up north. This trend has been pretty consistent with a few timing 'burps" along the way. As usual, it looks like some good chasing once again for the May 25th -June 4th timeframe. I am preparing to make this my primetime chase period for this spring. I will be joining the masses on the chase trail then !!

 

[Dan Robinson]

Looking a little better for later this month. We're still past the 7 day window, which coupled with the rate of model consistency the past few days, has me looking at this with cautious optimism. Going to be a nail-biter for another week or so.

 

[Dan Robinson]

12Z runs still maintain the aforementioned western trough.

 

[joel ewing]

12Z runs still maintain the aforementioned western trough.
[/b]

Any chasers that have been around me over the years know that I have a pet saying right around this time each year....and it goes like this...."May-Schmayy".
As far as I'm concerned....May can be awesome...but all too often it can suck bigtime. It's schizy. A lack of moisture or too cold temps have ruined countless May chase seasons of mine....and what we're dealing with right now doesn't surprise me in the least.
Earlier this year I set aside May 23rd. thru the middle of June for my chase vacation. However, I'm very close to calling the airline tonite and paying the darn penalty to move my flight into Omaha back a ways.
I remember last season sitting around a block of motel rooms in Amarillo with my cousin and chase partner Doren Berge along with Warren Faidley and a few others, all of us pissing and moaning about this same subject. Gawd..it's agonizing to be holed up in a motel during statistically the best chasing weeks of the year..with nowhere to go. You know it's bad when the high points of our days became "well....where do you wanna go for lunch today?". At night, some of the fellas would run off to the strip clubs, but I've been there...done that. Seen one skank...seen 'em all.
However.....if you can hang long enough, you'll eventually score. Last year we popped our '05 cherry on June 7th in the S. Dakota badlands. We were so tornado starved that that wimpy nader we saw then made us about half giddy. Doren was thinking hard about returning back to his business in Boston right after that day, but thank God I talked him into staying......because we hit the grand slam two days later with killer footage of Hill City's action from zygote to death...and from a perfect vantage point to boot. Now THAT made our season!
One thing is for sure.....situations like what we're dealing with here will separate the chaser men from the chaser boys. A lot of thrill-seeker newbies will throw in the proverbial towels and go elsewhere for their kicks...which is just fine with me. It's getting awfully crowded out there. Adios to 'em.
My sincere sympathies to any of you guys and gals whose chase vacations are/were locked in...and will be going home skunked. Man...I know all too well how that hurts, and... as sappy as it sounds...I feel your pain. But for the rest of us that can perhaps stay out a bit longer...all I can say is that if you can hang thru the first two weeks of June.....odds truly are that you WILL get rewarded..and perhaps in a big way. It has ALWAYS worked out for me....I've been doing this since the mid 80's...always within a northwest flow scenario. Right off the top of my head I can remember many incredible episodes...I scored big on June 9th near O'Neill Nebraska in 2003...near Big Springs, Nebraska on June 10th, 2004 (that thing morphed into one wicked monster, didn't it?) and of course the aforementioned June 9th Hill City, Kansas outbreak. Ohh, I don't want to forget too, that perhaps one of the most insane storms I've ever had the priviledge of witnessing was on June 2nd, 2002 in extreme eastern New Mexico (that incredible inflow-earth-eating monster/Dave Drummond ballsy bear-cage multi-vortex video grab). etc. etc. Again...all of these were northwest flow events. To sum this epic up......May Schmaayyy...but get ready to rock in June!

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

At night, some of the fellas would run off to the strip clubs, but I've been there...done that. Seen one skank...seen 'em all.
However.....if you can hang long enough, you'll eventually score.[/b]

LOL! Storms? Or.....

 

[Dan Robinson]

...and back down again with 00Z. :mellow:

It looks like we will have a trough out west, that much seems likely. But, it is not wanting to move inland and overspread the Plains with southwesterly flow aloft. It is just sitting there on the coast taunting us. Meanwhile the trough in the east holds strong, teetering on the edge of Omega #2. I might have to take a break from this and just come back on Friday and see what we're getting. This is kind of like watching your team ahead by one run in extra innings, but the bases are loaded with no outs. Sometimes you have to just turn the game off and see what happened the next morning in the paper. Too stressful to keep watching.