The future of the season....

[Dan Robinson]

The second Omega Block would definately be a major concern. If that happens and the pattern sets in for 2 weeks, there would be no trip at all for us this year - except for maybe a single short-fuse outing later in June, although scheduling issues will be a problem for everyone after June 10.

The models are acting so indecisive now that I won't revisit anything until Monday or Tuesday, or unless the run-to-run consistency improves over the next several days. Thankfully everyone's schedules are still flexible.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I haven't seen such persist and recurring continental airmass intrusions into the Gulf of Mexico this time of year... Both the ECMWF and GFS indicate that the Gulf will see days worth of strong northerly low-level flow, and there are hints that 850mb temps in the central and northern Gulf of Mexico may be the same as 850mb temps in extreme southern Alaska next week. It seems that both models indicate a couple of strong cold fronts wiping the Gulf clean. The graphic on the OUN's Enhanced weather page says a lot.

If OUN goes ahead with the reported tornado in Coal and/or Atoka co. a couple of days ago, we won't repeat the Oklahoma record we set last year (no tornadoes in May). I do wonder when the last time we had <100 tornadoes in the month of May? Latest Monthly Tornado Reports from SPC indicate that there have been 73 prelim tornado reports (many repeated I'm sure, as is usual) this month of May. I guess the law of averages is kicking our butts for the incredible March and early April.

Is this a good sign?

MEANS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AT LONGER TERM ALONG WITH MODEL RUN OUT
OF THE GFS INDICATES THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST AT
LEAST THRU THE D+10-11 PERIOD AND VERY POSSIBLY THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE MONTH.
...
...EAST...
VERY DEEP CUTOFF TROF AND CLOSED LOW WITH VERY ANONAMOUSLY LOW HTS
WILL PLAGUE ERN HALF CONUS ESPECIALLY ERN THIRD THRU THE PERIOD
AND POSSIBLY WELL INTO LATE MONTH AS D+10-11 AND MODEL RUN OUTS
SHOW A RE INFORCEMENT OF THE TROF. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS PLAINS
TO THE EAST AND GULF COASTS.
...
...CENTRAL...
DRY THRUOUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ROUGHLY EAST OF 100W-105W WITH
NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN THE HIGH PLAINS. CONDS LIKELY TO
PERSIST INTO LATE MONTH. WITHN A MEAN DEEP TROF EWD SRN EDGE OF
THE WESTERLIES IN NW FLOW FROM CO SEWD TO NRN AND WRN TX SHOULD BE
THE FOCUS AREA OF CNVTV ACTIVITY AS ENERGY DROPS SEWD OVER THE
ROCKIES RIDGE. [/b]

HPC Extended Forecast Discussion

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Thank god for not having to pick a vacation time and being lucky enough to live here. When was the last time May and June both got shut down? Jinx!

It's now looking like the gfs wasn't all that far off those several days ago.

 

[Tony Laubach]

I have to second Mike H's comment and be happy I live here as well. While I do have an entire month free to chase, I'm also fortunately enough to be able to leave in a day and not take away from the rest of my life. And the added perk of being able to work if I want to. It'll be nice for me in that respects. I may opt to travel across the country for yucks and grins if the weather doesn't pan out, but on the other hand, its these types of setups which sometime offer up chances in Eastern Colorado, so we'll see.

 

[John Hudson]

Thank god for not having to pick a vacation time and being lucky enough to live here.
[/b]

Yep, you guys on the Plains should count your blessings. You've got a front-row seat to a lot of the action, and even if you aren't on holidays, you can still chase on weekends

While I also consider myself lucky in that I work for myself, and can take a trip just about anytime I feel so inclined, getting down to the Plains does require $$$, and every year it seems to be a larger gamble with the escalating fuel prices.

Along with the chase year beginning earlier lately, it also seems as if a good deal of activity is shifting to the north, as well. We in Southern Manitoba had our first weak tornado of the year yesterday, which is probably the earliest on record. We also saw stronger and more numerous tornadoes last year. I often wonder if, with all the other wonky weather patterns that are taking place, the southern boundary of Tornado Alley will eventually be Nebraska many years from now.

I'm becoming more convinced that this year might be a good year to cut my losses, and save my money for several smaller chases into the Dakotas and Nebraska later in the summer. I'd save the extra expense of airfare, and it seems that my chances of snagging a decent storm would be just as good (or better?).

John
VE4 JTH

 

[Robert Dewey]

Welcome back to crapland, Nick!

It was nice and warm the past few days (almost 80F), but now it's thick clouds and drizzling with a temp of 50F... To top it off, we're stuck in this pattern for several days. Did you bring this with you?!

 

[Stuart Robinson]

18z maintains eastward progress of the Westside trough – no apparent OB2 which is good!

Of course 18z GFS is using 12z upper air data and FL (fantasy land) this far out – but there is a glimmer of hope for the 06 season ~ just a glimmer right now ….

 

[John Hudson]

18z maintains eastward progress of the Westside trough – no apparent OB2 which is good!

Of course 18z GFS is using 12z upper air data and FL (fantasy land) this far out – but there is a glimmer of hope for the 06 season ~ just a glimmer right now ….
[/b]

Only glimmer I'm getting so far is from all the bright sunshine beneath that western ridge :lol:

John
VE4 JTH

 

[Paul Knightley]

My feeling is that the ridge will begin to shift away around or soon after *next* weekend (20th). There's always a chance later next week for some Gulf air to head back in (before the ridge even thinks about shifting!), along with the chance of some SE'ward rolling MCSs.

 

[Marc Austin]

For what it's worth, the latest GFS shows several small impulses from the 24 through the 26 as well as a more pronounced system into the Ohio valley by the 26th/27th. Of course, the next run will have this system in Canada and out of reach. I just want to point out, the GFS seems to want to end this blocking pattern as much as us chasers do. A man can dream...

 

[Chris Hayes]

For what it's worth, the latest GFS shows several small impulses from the 24 through the 26 as well as a more pronounced system into the Ohio valley by the 26th/27th. Of course, the next run will have this system in Canada and out of reach. I just want to point out, the GFS seems to want to end this blocking pattern as much as us chasers do. A man can dream...
[/b]

I'm no expert, and maybe I'm wishcasting, but I dont think this pattern is going to last the rest of the month. The GFS has showed on multiple occasions it breaking down after the 20th. The sooner the better for me, as I'll be leaving Oklahoma and heading home on the 26th

 

[Mickey Ptak]

This is exactly why I chased so much in March and April. Although I had no proof about what May would have in store for us I and my chase partner had that hunch about it. It has worked out for us however because due to us chasing so much the last two months the chase funds have limited balances. lol.

As far as what the GFS is showing, that has already been nailed and needs no explanation from me, but I would not rule out a chase or two during Memorial Day weekend some where in the Plains. Mother Nature always has to rain on someone’s parade during Memorial Day weekend.

Just keep in mind nothing last forever and this Omega Block is no exempt from this rule. We should be just fine for June. (Crossing fingers…)

Mick

 

[Mark Farnik]

I am sorely depressed by the lack of not just severe weather but any weather in the High Plains. We're bone dry and need a good inch or more of rain very badly. My dad's winter crops are starting to wither in his fields, and he can't plant his spring crops with the current lack of submoisture in the soil. So I'm with everyone else in hoping that this damned ridge will begin to shift east and let that western trough come knocking. I have a feeling that when this pattern breaks, it's going to break with a bang.
I'm with Tony, though; we've gotten some of our best severe weather days under northwesterly flow, especially during monsoon season. (July 21, 2000 being a prime example of that) So yes, this type of pattern occasionally gives us a severe weather day in eastern CO/northwestern KS/southeastern WY/southwest NE and Panhandle of NE, so I'm hoping we'll see one or two of those between the 20th and 27th in the western High Plains. I think there is the possbility of some major action around Memorial Day (when hasn't there been a severe weather outbreak somewhere in the Plains on Memorial Day? Not in my recent memory, at least.) And given the outbreaks trending more northwards the last few years, Kansas and Nebraska will be the places to be. So I'm crossing my fingers, holding my breath and hoping for some tornadic activity in the High Plains after May 20th and then hopefully a spectacular Memorial Day outbreak.

 

[Walker Ashley]

... we've gotten some of our best severe weather days under northwesterly flow, especially during monsoon season. (July 21, 2000 being a prime example of that) So yes, this type of pattern occasionally gives us a severe weather day in eastern CO/northwestern KS/southeastern WY/southwest NE and Panhandle of NE, so ... [/b]

NWFL is great for the late season ... mid June-August (e.g., the July 21st case you mention; and the rest of "monsoon" season, as stated). It is NOT good for early season scenarios. Early season NWFL cases tend to have a lack of any sig. moisture. See the Johns (1982; 84) studies. Unfortunately, good evapotranspiration won't kick in until mid-late June. I agree that the only hope is for a tongue of meager moisture to make it up into the high plains. Boy, that is really going to take some luck with a cold front (or two) to the Yucatan. :angry:

 

[Dan Robinson]

Everything as of this morning is pointing to Omega #2. Pattern tries to change around the 23rd-25th, but just snaps right back into what it was before. Western trough just can't make it across the mountains. Some of the ensemble members want to give us a trough with SW flow, but they are in the minority.