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The future of the season....

Hi all guys
I was making a little thinking about the future of the season and I tried to imagine how could it be the month of may.
I was thinking that the season has started up so early, this year, and if we can do a comparison, we could compare the last month of March and the whole month of April of this year to a may of a normal year.(yesterday we had 4000 of cape for example). As to me this is a sign that the season is just well set. If someone told me that now we're on may, I could believe to him.

In this way a deductive reasoning would lead me to think that the next month of may could be like a normal june and the next end of may could be an early july.
If this reasoning is right we could have only the first 10-15 days of may in wich we could chase and then we could have a long period of high pressure, not characterized by the dynamism of may. If that's correct we would have high temperatures during may and few severe storms.

Besides we can't forget the Nina....

So I wanna make a conclusion: I don't want to say that this arguement comes from a synoptic deduction, but it's simply a reasoning that comes from a little suspect. We all know that meteorology is not simple to understand and a lot of time its behaviour is different from the one we imagine.

So, guys, try to tell me what do you think about this theory and I hope that someone will simply destroy it.
 
Besides we can't forget the Nina....


[/b]

http://news.uns.purdue.edu/html4ever/990226.Agee.LaNina.html

By the way, "during a La Nina event, the subtropical jet -- the jet stream that brings warm moist air from the south -- shifts to the far north, bringing an influx of warmth and moisture to these regions, and increasing the odds for tornadoes, ".

Moreover, "When the jet stream is farther north, as it is in a La Nina event, you have a better chance of achieving these kinds of temperatures and dew-points."

Anyone knows if maybe there's some relationship between La Nina and the death ridge? I don't like so much a pattern that push too much above the subtopical jet; if I'm correct under the subtropical jet would be positioned a ridge.(in the theory the southern plains would be out of games)
 
Anyone knows if maybe there's some relationship between La Nina and the death ridge?[/b]

Yes, when there is La Nina the Death Ridge start from May 8th and end on June 8th :D

Joking apart..., the chance of strong tornadoes is increased, but the overall number should be less altough there is no direct relationship (because higher temp/dews and jet northern than normal).

;)
 
I don't think we can say anything too conclusive about the rest of the chase season based on what has happened so far. As you may recall, April 2004 was mostly a dud and everyone was convinced the Death Ridge had already established itself. We all know what happened in May/June.

Personally, I feel that this season has quite a lot left in it, we just need to be patient.

Gabe
 
For what it's worth, the 14-day NCEP ensemble suggests the jet riding far to the north, with general troughing in the east for at least the first few days of May. In other words, above average temps and dry weather west of the Mississippi (with maybe some northwest flow events). Of course, this far ahead that's nothing more than something to talk about. Even if it turns out to be true, there's plenty of time for it to change by June 1.
 
Always interesting to speculate, but the forecastable horizon seems to drop off steeply beyond 10 days or so. Even on the CPC's outlooks, notice that much of the time even the very fundamental outlook factors (temp, precip, etc.) are 40%/60% type probability tradeoffs.

I agree with Andrea the upper pattern does tend to be ahead of itself on the calendar thus far. Note this week the development of an Omega block pattern (although a secondary southern jet streak wants to persist.) Whether this pattern can just be extrapolated to move the remainder of the calendar forward, though, is hard to say.

Patterns persist and patterns change. One pattern that seems very persistent this season is the traditional dry line setup seems to have moved about 1/2 of a state-length to the east. Has this been just a by-product of the overall upper air pattern, or is something more permanent at work? I know that evapotranspiration has a meaningful effect on atmospheric moisture. With lack of convection and drying soils over the winter wheat belt, does this set up a feedback loop which will reinforce the eastward migration of the dryline? Or, will just a bit of a shift in the angle of approaching short waves from the Pacific change the pattern?

More questions than answers, for sure.
 
Hi all guys
[/b]

And what about the girls? <_<

LOL. :D

Well - I have little insight to offer, but we sure are in a very quiescent period just now and it looks like it's here to stay for a little while, too. Compared to most of March and early April, mid to late April is disappointing for severe weather. To put things in perspective - I haven't even extracted my wx radio from the backseat of my car for the past few weeks. I would have hoped that I'd need to have it in my apartment to listen out for overnight svr here in OUN, at least! :unsure:

Here's another thought - with all the dry conditions and drought out west and in some cases up to the I-35 corridor - how will this affect the 2006 season? Will our dryline push much further east with each system? Will there be minimal evapotranspiration?

I don't have any of the answers. But I guess you must first understand the questions.

K.
 
I'd love it if the dryline just kept on moving east. It would be great to chase LPs and DL bulges in Illinois all spring! Close enough that I could actually go home every few days :)
 
Whew! The GFS 00Z has turned more the way its "supposed" to be. It's not supposed to block clear up to the Arctic the beginning of May -- for criminy's sake! At least this version seems to keep the progressive pattern with western troughing going, and there's more in the pipe upstream. I'd be nervous about late May when/if the pattern does finally jam a la June.

Of course the 06Z run may send me back to saying, "Oh, no! Not again...!" :unsure:
 
Whew! The GFS 00Z has turned more the way its "supposed" to be. It's not supposed to block clear up to the Arctic the beginning of May -- for criminy's sake! At least this version seems to keep the progressive pattern with western troughing going, and there's more in the pipe upstream. I'd be nervous about late May when/if the pattern does finally jam a la June.

Of course the 06Z run may send me back to saying, "Oh, no! Not again...!" :unsure:
[/b]

I hope you're right about that pattern of western troughing, David. I've chosen the weeks of May 15th, and 22nd for my 2 week chase trip. I dont expect a 10 DAYS OF MAY as in 2003, but I wouldnt mind a couple of decent severe events, and several decent chase days to get some good structure and maybe a couple of tornados. I'll have to take a look at the GFS when I get home from school. As of right now, I'm planning on basing myself in Nebraska. I don't want to head too far south because everything seems to be up north so far this year, for the most part. :rolleyes:
 
Whew! The GFS 00Z has turned more the way its "supposed" to be. It's not supposed to block clear up to the Arctic the beginning of May -- for criminy's sake! At least this version seems to keep the progressive pattern with western troughing going, and there's more in the pipe upstream. I'd be nervous about late May when/if the pattern does finally jam a la June.

Of course the 06Z run may send me back to saying, "Oh, no! Not again...!" :unsure:
[/b]


You could be right David..Anyway after a so dynamic pattern as it has been so far, it's normal to have a ridge in that position..We have to wai not a lot of time to understand if it'll be a normal ridge or a "death ridge".
 
Indeed the last GFS run looks more friendly, but that is still too much in advance. I will be there on Wednesday next week for the next 30 days, I hope death ridge won't come so soon, well hope it won't come until June! Ok, I understand its all one big gambling saying about an upcoming season, but there should be a connection between so active spring and late months. Could La Nina cause so active start of the season?
 
Hmmm.

lbb42006b.jpg


Well wouldn't you know it. Convection still can happen in the Texas panhandle.
 
Here is some possible insight to early May:

The following is according to Ed Berry,
He has been very accurate!
A link to his latest blog entry: http://weatherclimatelink.blogspot.com/
Its a bit long but here are some highlights:

Punch line is we should see the anomalous zonal mean westerlies come back south and contribute to more full latitude energetic troughs slamming into the western part of the country by the end of week 2 (weekend of May 6-7)[/b]

. This should be similar to what was observed during March into early April, only a bit farther northwest.[/b]
Severe local storm activity across the Plains may become very robust by the end of this period (understanding the impossible predictability of details like quality of tropical moisture transport, instability, etc.)[/b]
 
Twice this week there have been storms in north Texas and the panhandle, in Oklahoma and central/southern Kansas. Deep convection is still alive and kicking in the Plains. I think it's still too early to call the season eaither way, but I think it's safe to say that the drought isn't going to completely shut everything down like it was expected to.
 
Punch line is we should see the anomalous zonal mean westerlies come back south and contribute to more full latitude energetic troughs slamming into the western part of the country by the end of week 2 (weekend of May 6-7)

Just in time for finals week. Both me and my chase partner (a professor here) will probably be stuck on campus. :angry:
 
Over the last few days I've been looking at the longer range GFS charts, and studying the orientation of the circumpolar vortex, and also looking at this on the ensembles. It seems that its centre of gravity (CoG) is towards Siberia at the moment, but there are hints that over the next 2-3 weeks, the CoG revolves around the pole, firstly towards the N Pacific, and then, perhaps, towards the N of N America. This *could* mean a more active period later in May/early June. This is really speculation, but something I've been watching quite intently!
 
Yes - never use just one model at that timeframe, look at Ensembles instead...
[/b]

You're right, but often I've found that with mid time forecast GFS shows a good fidelity. So, that's the reason why sometimes I use to trust only in GFS. :)
 
The ensembles get really messy after a week and show no real confident indication what is in store for the plains May chase season. [/b]

Yep - chase planning this year isn't cutting us non-Plains-residing chasers any breaks, just like last year (and most years I guess). I'm sitting here waiting to pull the trigger on an official departure date from WV, but I'm not getting much in the way of useful info. I want to tentatively plan on leaving on the 8th, but I'm afraid to set that date in stone for fear of something horrid taking shape after the middle of next week. The ensembles certainly aren't giving me any assurance for or against that. $3/gallon is too expensive to take a chance on leaving at the wrong time.
 
yea the CPC last night announced it is liking the 6th of may to the 11th for severe weather...mostly for the plains and into MO later on that date - centering on s/east Kansas if you can center on anything

anyone care to speculate on those dates, AND BEYOND into the 15th - kickin around a trip if it looks to verify to TX and OK handles from the 10th to the 21st
 
yea the CPC last night announced it is liking the 6th of may to the 11th for severe weather...mostly for the plains and into MO later on that date - centering on s/east Kansas if you can center on anything

[/b]

Bill,

If I'm not mistaken, the CPC often takes the recommendation of the SPC for their Hazards Assessment product. Therefore, the CPC Hazards Assessment really isn't much (if any) different than the SPC Day 4-8 Outlook. Maybe someone from SPC can comment on this...

Regardless, it's tough enough to get a 48 hour forecast to be worth anything in this current regime, so anything beyond that seems pointless at this time. I wish there were strong model signals that we'll get into a multi-day pattern that favors severe weather events in the plains, but that isn't the case. The 7day forecast from last night's 0z ECMWF did show a deepening trough in the western US, with diffluent southwesterly upper-level flow across much of the Plains. However, it also moves a strong 500mb trough from northwestern Mexico through the Gulf coast states, which wouldn't be entirely good for any chasing N of I20. Of course, the GFS is showing an entirely different solution during that time frame. I could say one thing or another, but there'd be nearly equal chances that it'll be a busted forecast as there is that it'll be a good forecast.
 
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