The future of the season....

[Dan Robinson]

Twice this week there have been storms in north Texas and the panhandle, in Oklahoma and central/southern Kansas. Deep convection is still alive and kicking in the Plains. I think it's still too early to call the season eaither way, but I think it's safe to say that the drought isn't going to completely shut everything down like it was expected to.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Punch line is we should see the anomalous zonal mean westerlies come back south and contribute to more full latitude energetic troughs slamming into the western part of the country by the end of week 2 (weekend of May 6-7)

Just in time for finals week. Both me and my chase partner (a professor here) will probably be stuck on campus. :angry:

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Here is some possible insight to early May:

The following is according to Ed Berry,
He has been very accurate!
A link to his latest blog entry: http://weatherclimatelink.blogspot.com/
Its a bit long but here are some highlights:
[/b]

Ehi man, that's encouraging! Better than anything.

 

[Paul Knightley]

Over the last few days I've been looking at the longer range GFS charts, and studying the orientation of the circumpolar vortex, and also looking at this on the ensembles. It seems that its centre of gravity (CoG) is towards Siberia at the moment, but there are hints that over the next 2-3 weeks, the CoG revolves around the pole, firstly towards the N Pacific, and then, perhaps, towards the N of N America. This *could* mean a more active period later in May/early June. This is really speculation, but something I've been watching quite intently!

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Hi all
Finally I'm starting to see a lowering of the polar front and a developing af a good zonal flow, above all after may 6. It seems that something is moving: any thinking, guys and girls?

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfsUS_500_spd_168.gif

 

[rdale]

It seems that something is moving: any thinking, guys and girls?
[/b]

Yes - never use just one model at that timeframe, look at Ensembles instead...

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Yes - never use just one model at that timeframe, look at Ensembles instead...
[/b]

You're right, but often I've found that with mid time forecast GFS shows a good fidelity. So, that's the reason why sometimes I use to trust only in GFS.

 

[Dan Robinson]

The ensembles get really messy after a week and show no real confident indication what is in store for the plains May chase season. [/b]

Yep - chase planning this year isn't cutting us non-Plains-residing chasers any breaks, just like last year (and most years I guess). I'm sitting here waiting to pull the trigger on an official departure date from WV, but I'm not getting much in the way of useful info. I want to tentatively plan on leaving on the 8th, but I'm afraid to set that date in stone for fear of something horrid taking shape after the middle of next week. The ensembles certainly aren't giving me any assurance for or against that. $3/gallon is too expensive to take a chance on leaving at the wrong time.

 

[bill mudd]

yea the CPC last night announced it is liking the 6th of may to the 11th for severe weather...mostly for the plains and into MO later on that date - centering on s/east Kansas if you can center on anything

anyone care to speculate on those dates, AND BEYOND into the 15th - kickin around a trip if it looks to verify to TX and OK handles from the 10th to the 21st

 

[Jeff Snyder]

yea the CPC last night announced it is liking the 6th of may to the 11th for severe weather...mostly for the plains and into MO later on that date - centering on s/east Kansas if you can center on anything

[/b]

Bill,

If I'm not mistaken, the CPC often takes the recommendation of the SPC for their Hazards Assessment product. Therefore, the CPC Hazards Assessment really isn't much (if any) different than the SPC Day 4-8 Outlook. Maybe someone from SPC can comment on this...

Regardless, it's tough enough to get a 48 hour forecast to be worth anything in this current regime, so anything beyond that seems pointless at this time. I wish there were strong model signals that we'll get into a multi-day pattern that favors severe weather events in the plains, but that isn't the case. The 7day forecast from last night's 0z ECMWF did show a deepening trough in the western US, with diffluent southwesterly upper-level flow across much of the Plains. However, it also moves a strong 500mb trough from northwestern Mexico through the Gulf coast states, which wouldn't be entirely good for any chasing N of I20. Of course, the GFS is showing an entirely different solution during that time frame. I could say one thing or another, but there'd be nearly equal chances that it'll be a busted forecast as there is that it'll be a good forecast.

 

[Shane Adams]

I'll let everyone know June 30.

 

[Kevin Myatt]

The usual answer to this question is:

Not as good as we hope ...

Not as bad as we fear ...

It's all about May 15-27 for me. I'd have to say I prefer the way this May looks to how last year looked at this time.

 

[Dan Robinson]

The joys of long-distance chase trip planning. The map actually does look like spaghetti. Now I'm craving Italian food for some strange reason.

 

[mrobinett]

It's all about May 15-27 for me. I'd have to say I prefer the way this May looks to how last year looked at this time.
[/b]

I definitely heard that!! I chose the latter part of May this year specifically because of early May last year, thought I might change it up a bit.

Seeya out there! (May 13-25)

 

[Andrea Griffa]

From the newest run I see that there's a changing in the forecast; I just saw it from yesterday run. After may 9 that is confirmed a nice chasing day, there would be a period with North-Western flow in the Plains that could be a pause in the storms activity.
I think that as others said, we'll see a more active pattern after may 15.