The future of the season....

[Justin Turcotte]

This CPC outlook pretty much sums it up...

 

[Dan Robinson]

And back down the next hill. The 00Z GFS's eastern trough from 48 to 180 hours progressively anchors itself, and beyond 180 hours, all traces of any significant western troughs vanishing through day 16.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I find it extremely unusual to see the forecast for a eastern US trough or cut-off low to persist for almost two weeks. That would likely lead to at least one significant cP intrusion into the Gulf (or through it, as the GFS suggests by the end of the weekend IIRC)... It seems that the GFS wants to develop a nearly Omega block across the CONUS (with a low/trough off the west coast, and another in the OH/IL area, with a high amplitude ridge in between), as well as a high-over-low / Rex block (with the cut-off low over OH/IL south of a strong cut-off high north of Maine). I don't recall seeing a double-blocking setup before.... If that does indeed develop, we may have a very hard time removing it. Such blocks are called 'blocks' for a reason, and a Rex+Omega block across North America may postpone any hopes of a widespread svr event until late May. Of course, remember that we cna still get decent events w/ NW flow aloft. I don't think we'll see much north of the OK/KS border, since moisture will have a very hard time making it that far north. However, like last week, we may see some Texas or panhandle action.

Again, the predictability seems to be very low right now. As you can see, the GFS runs seem to bounce around from persistent, long-last trough in the east (negative 500mb ht anomalies), to a brief bout of eastern US troughing, followed by a more progressive western US trough that moves through the central US. Given the consistency at which the GFS runs (more often than not) have yielded a long-lasting eastern US trough, it may indeed happen. The ECMWF shows a slightly flatter flow, with the cut-off low a little farther north (over MI / northern OH), which may help a bit since it'll decrease the curvature of the flow, thereby decreasing ageostrophic curvature convergence aloft (subsidence), and hopefully lessen the intensity of any high pressure systems and cP airmass invasions into the cetnral and southern US (and the Gulf).

 

[Marc Austin]

Well... looks like we've picked the worst two weeks during the whole season(May 14- 28), assuming that the general trend of the GFS holds true and keeps the block in place for at least one week and perhaps two. Well perhaps we'll see some lightning?! We can hope for the best. I'm sure there must be at least one decent chase day during those two weeks. If not, there will always be next year. The latest GFS does show some possible action in ND/SD around the 25th, but that's totally inaccurate, so for now I will just say... good luck to all who are chasing during the last two weeks in May and pray to God that something changes drastically in the models before Friday.

 

[Chad Ringley]

To follow up on Jeff's post, the operational GFS doesn't completely scour the Gulf with the development of the massive E Coast trof, but completely scours it when the Pac NW jet energy dives into it and reinforces it around 17-18 May. The cf goes through the Central Gulf, while the massive trof/cutoff in the E sets up shop to stay in the OH Valley.

The problem with NW flow aloft is that in order to get anything chaseable, you need a reliable instability source (like we had last week in S/SW Texas). What moisture that DOES return takes the long way up through Old Mexico, and I wonder if the GFS is properly resolving the strength of ridging and N flow along the Texas/Mexican Gulf Coast. Seems like it brings moisture back N faster than we'd likely see it happen in reality.

As I said a few days ago...couldn't draw it worse on paper, particularly with the likely shut off of the Gulf. Ugh.

 

[Dan Robinson]

This is definately a "postpone your chase trip another two weeks" setup. We're pushing our trip back to at least the 21st. Long range GFS guesscasts are showing some weak troughs with modest flow about that time, but far to the north. Moisture return can happen quickly though, so you can't turn your back on it if and when this block starts to move. Time to go into hibernation for a while.

 

[Paul Knightley]

I would that we could postpone our 10 hour trans-Atlantic flight! However, unfortunately it's all booked up, so we'll have to do our best to find something! Might be worth some sightseeing too!

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

This has Groundhogs Day written all over it.
By this I mean that I feel like were repeating the month of April all over again. Really.
Remember most of April was dominated by a high amplitude ridge in the Gulf preventing any mositure return to the region. From everything Ive read and looked at, this looks to be the same sort of scenario repeating itself again.

While one shouldnt judge a chase season soley by what happens in the month of May (given that tornado events are highest in May), its certainly looking like were about to record our second consecutive crap chase season. I am familiar with the saying that mother nature always has a way of making up for itself (for lost time, in this case, tornadoes) and im not saying I dont believe that cliche cause Ive seen it happen, but I also was saying that last year too and nothing ever happened. Last years chase "season" (must be scientifically correct) was crap. Very few above high threat tornado setups and when storms did produce, it was very isolated and sporadic, you had to be at the right place just as the right time. I know Shane can atest to that. But even if things do go gangbusters late May and into June, overall the chase season will be average to below average.
It was funny, the season got off to a start that can be described as nothing short of insane with the early chases and unrelenting tornado events through March. It was certainly the most active March Ive seen ever. And at the time it was looking as though nothing could stop the active severe/tornado pattern that was in place but April came and it was as if someone slammed shut the door. Outside of the 17th (day of El Reno tornado), which was itself a modest setup, things have been downright quiet. Now im not sure if those West Texas severe events this last week produced any tornadoes or not but the weather pattern was not what you would typically see for April into May. I mean that the overall synoptic weather pattern was such that if a storm did produce a tornado it was almost by accident, it wasnt favored, which is just the opposite of what you would expect this time of year.

So that all said, im miffed by the way this chase season has gone, especially after last years crap season. This really does suck. Anyways thats my 2 cents worth

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

I just found something that is of some relevance as far as the season to date that kinda proves the point I made above.
This is a brief article I found a local news website.

2006 shaping up as fairly mild year for Oklahoma twisters
OKLAHOMA CITY --The National Weather Service says Oklahoma has had 13 tornadoes so far this year, a few under average.

The state gets 54 tornadoes in an average year, most of those from March to June. May is the busiest month, with the first week of the month being the statistical peak.

Most of the tornadoes the state has received this year have been relatively week and short-lived.

Meanwhile, 36 people were killed by tornadoes last month alone in Tennessee, while other deaths have occurred this year in Missouri, Illinois and Indiana.

Copyright 2006 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
[/b]

Source

Note: I know this thread is about the future of the season and not the past but i felt the need to discuss the season as a whole due to several previous comments made in this thread on this years chase season overall

 

[Jeremy Bower]

I really have no choice in my chase vacation from May 20 to June 3. That is the time I took off from work and time I'll be able to set aside from my graduate school commitments here at UNL. I took a quick look at the latest 180 hr. GFS run, which shows the same general pattern with the NW aloft at 300 mb. The way I look at it, were in the prime of chase season. Models are models...they could be right and they could be wrong. I think the combination of high gas prices along with the reality of potentially unfavorable setups seems to be letting everyone throw in the towel already. Not to get off the topic but unfavorable consecutive chase years have happened in the past and they will happen more than likely in the future. (Just talk to any die hard chaser that attempted to chase from 1983 to 1989)

 

[Dan Robinson]

Keep in mind that Day 16 (384 hours) is the 25th. And that's a loooong way out there in model territory. Past the 25th is beyond the horizon of reasonable forecasting ability. Heck, past 7-10 days is really beyond the horizon of reasonable forecasting ability. Lots of time for a big change.

 

[Jeremy Bower]

My point exactly Dan Models like GFS projected beyond 7 days need to be taken with a grain of salt. They might be right and they could be wrong. That is why they are called projections.

Its May 9th folks. Anything can happen so don't give up hope yet. I'm sure a lot of peole feel that if we had our way we'd have chaseable setups everyday from April to July and gas prices that don't require taking out a small loan just to chase :huh:

Just remember that during a season like this so far, all it takes is one day to make the 2006 season.

 

[Marc Austin]

I suppose you may be right. Afterall... our best chase year so far was in 2004 when there were no chaseable storms for at least 5 days at the beginning of our chase, so we went up to Wyoming and had a blast in the Big Horns mountains. Then we came down into Colorado on May 10 and saw the most amazing supercell I had seen in my life. It only takes one day on a 14 day chase to make everything worth the trouble. Even beyond 4 to 5 days I would say the GFS isn't all that accurate. Anyway, good luck to all chasing during the end of May. It's May right? There will be a tornado or two, we just have to be in the right place at the right time.

 

[Brian Press]

Well Looks like the newest GFS long range runs are showing a very nice trough starting arond the May 23/24 then another stronger one coming in around the 26th. I know it's way out but at least it is there. I will call it a hopecast.

My brothers and I are planning on the 6-11 of June flying into OKC.. I may come out on a buddy pass anytime before that for a quick 2 day chase.

Until then,
b.p.

 

[Chris Hayes]

Well Looks like the newest GFS long range runs are showing a very nice trough starting arond the May 23/24 then another stronger one coming in around the 26th. I know it's way out but at least it is there. I will call it a hopecast.

My brothers and I are planning on the 6-11 of June flying into OKC.. I may come out on a buddy pass anytime before that for a quick 2 day chase.

Until then,
b.p.
[/b]

I was just going to post that. It would be a dream setup if that negatively tilted trough did setup. I leave for my chase trip on saturday after I get home from work. It doesnt appear that there'll be anything great going on the first week of my trip. It would be nice if there'd be some stuff in eastern New Mexico and West Texas. I'm not sure how favorable the environment will be for that though.