Dan Robinson
LOL, I think we should rename the thread that (and every long-range forecast thread in future years)
Welcome to 'Stressfest 2006'
The future of the season....
- Thread starter Andrea Griffa
- Start date
LOL, I think we should rename the thread that (and every long-range forecast thread in future years)
Welcome to 'Stressfest 2006'
mrobinett
EF3
Stressfest is right, Im stressing!! I actually went out and chased a couple of HP cells here in N. Florida today, half inch hail, no signs of real rotation, not that I expected any they were pretty weak, that just shows Im gonna chase anything right now...
John Hudson
EF4
Amen, brother, amen. May sux!
Most dangerous thing on the Plains right now is the risk of stepping in a cow turd. Someone puhleeze bring on June
John
VE4 JTH
Marc Austin
EF4
Hah! Yeah, as I already told you Mike, you might have seen more today than we're likely to see throughout or chase vacation in the plains(May 20- June 4)! I'm glad you got a chance to do some chasing! I can't believe this. I guess good things don't always come to those who wait... and wait... and wait...
Joe Zemek
EF2
CPC's new outlooks are out tomorrow, with plenty of new data to overanalyze and fret about. I can't wait to see where the new enhanced precip chance forecast blob sets up for June
In other news, Phoenix has a 30% chance of thunderstorms tomorrow night, which means 1) a 30% chance of local dustgust and distant convection with no audible thunder, and 2) that the upper flow these days is really weird, mimicking monsoonal onset.
In other news, Phoenix has a 30% chance of thunderstorms tomorrow night, which means 1) a 30% chance of local dustgust and distant convection with no audible thunder, and 2) that the upper flow these days is really weird, mimicking monsoonal onset.
Marc Austin
EF4
Just for kicks I thought I would throw this out there. http://wxcaster.com/animate/gfs2p5_loops.p..._500_GPHTMPVORT
It's a link to the long range GFS loop. As of now, it shows a fairly good system moving through the central and high plains around May 25/26, but that's complete speculation at this point. Hey.. it's better than anything I've seen in a while. We'll see if the GFS holds on to this system moving through NE/KS/SD/ND.
It's a link to the long range GFS loop. As of now, it shows a fairly good system moving through the central and high plains around May 25/26, but that's complete speculation at this point. Hey.. it's better than anything I've seen in a while. We'll see if the GFS holds on to this system moving through NE/KS/SD/ND.
Robert Edmonds
EF5
So if there's nothing to chase between the 19th and 4th, I wonder what are my odds at being able to catch an out break in june during a saturday, which would be my only day I could really make it all the way out for?
Eric Treece
EF2
Yeah, last couple of GFS runs are looking alittle better, but like most have said, it is like dangling a carrot in front of a donkey at this point. It is something to salivate on and that is about it this far out. Tomorrow I am going to get fitted for a straight jacket I think............I can't take it anymore. STOP THE INSANITY!! LOL .........I crave a bolt of lightning at this point!!!
Dan Robinson
..and the 00z GFS ladies and gentlemen, otherwise known as the 'get your passports ready' forecast. At least these continued inconsistencies mean anything is possible next week. Nothing to do but wait for future runs to start behaving.
Andrea Griffa
EF5
Dan, GFS 06Z is taking away the western cut off and shows a trough that starts to move eastward at 180h. Another little hope for all the chasers.
Mike Kovalchick
EF3
The 4 to 8 day SPC Convective Outlook shows some hope in the text portion of the Outlook for next week:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
".....A TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE ZONAL REGIME WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
OCCURS...EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF A YET TO DEVELOP EASTERN PACIFIC
CLOSED LOW MAY SUPPORT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONALIZED
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK..."
00Z GFS and ensembles show this quite well.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
".....A TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE ZONAL REGIME WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
OCCURS...EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF A YET TO DEVELOP EASTERN PACIFIC
CLOSED LOW MAY SUPPORT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONALIZED
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK..."
00Z GFS and ensembles show this quite well.
Jesper_Copenhagen
Hello all stormchasers!
We arrived in Dallas yesterday and are currently thinking about what to do, not much activity down here all we have seen so far are som stratocumulus
But as you all say models sugest that there might be some change for the better in the dynamics of the atmosphere next week.
So we are thinking about driving to Colorado in the lee of the Rockies, and wait there for things to get better, and maybee go for a little sightseeing.
Would that be a good place to wait or should we position ourselves elsewhere?
We also want to get some nice pictures of lightning, where would be the best place to be the next three days in search of isolated thunderstorms (Arizona?)
We arrived in Dallas yesterday and are currently thinking about what to do, not much activity down here all we have seen so far are som stratocumulus
But as you all say models sugest that there might be some change for the better in the dynamics of the atmosphere next week.
So we are thinking about driving to Colorado in the lee of the Rockies, and wait there for things to get better, and maybee go for a little sightseeing.
Would that be a good place to wait or should we position ourselves elsewhere?
We also want to get some nice pictures of lightning, where would be the best place to be the next three days in search of isolated thunderstorms (Arizona?)
Dan Robinson
Although there is a small trough showing on the GFS that might affect the northern Plains after Memorial Day, the overall pattern looks to trend toward zonal with the bulk of the better flow staying along the US/Canadian border or even farther north. Any troughs look weak, unamplified and way to the north. Unless I'm missing something or interpreting this wrong (someone please correct me if so).
The ECMWF is showing that the Pacific low finally could start to become the dominant large-scale feature late next week, although it is still well offshore (with the Plains still firmly ridged) at 168 hours.
Marko Korosec
EF4
Hello fellow European, welcome to the States!Hello all stormchasers!
We arrived in Dallas yesterday and are currently thinking about what to do, not much activity down here all we have seen so far are som stratocumulus
But as you all say models sugest that there might be some change for the better in the dynamics of the atmosphere next week.
So we are thinking about driving to Colorado in the lee of the Rockies, and wait there for things to get better, and maybee go for a little sightseeing.
Would that be a good place to wait or should we position ourselves elsewhere?
We also want to get some nice pictures of lightning, where would be the best place to be the next three days in search of isolated thunderstorms (Arizona?)
[/b]
Unfortunatelly there will probably be at least one week of nothing, models finally starting to show at least some marginal stuff after May 22nd. Statistically this s$$$ cannot last so long, but nothing can beat the nature.
I agree with you, we're going to Colorado mountains in the next days as well, staying in strn Plains during ridge is just killing time, at least for us foreigners. I am not sure about Arizona stuff, but as I remember that comes later in the summer. Let me know if you will go to Colorado, we can meet
I can tell you something...there will be an outbreak, on May 27th afternoon, when I have to go home, lol. Hopefully you will have some nice stuff after this ridge dies. We had few nice chase days, lets hope to get some more until our departure.
One question for the USA guys...what exactly are you expecting or hoping...just marginal stuff to get at least some chase days or you're mostly looking after outbreaks? 'cause we can still get some nice storms meanwhile.
Mike Peregrine
EF5
Is this reminding anyone of ... oh, say ... 2005?
It's good to see Dan's zonal map - - that's a step in the right direction. Zonal can transition to SW flow easily enough ... we only need one deep trough to set things in motion. My guestimation is that things will get revved up from about Mem Day weekend through June. Look for spring-like pattern transition by sometime next week into the last week of May. Until then, enjoy the mountains and the nice, cool mornings in the plains while we still have them (we'll be missing them in August). By next week there could well be localized severe somewhere in the plains, possibly north or central (depending on where local kinks in the flow set up).
This has been a fun thread to watch from the sidelines.
It's good to see Dan's zonal map - - that's a step in the right direction. Zonal can transition to SW flow easily enough ... we only need one deep trough to set things in motion. My guestimation is that things will get revved up from about Mem Day weekend through June. Look for spring-like pattern transition by sometime next week into the last week of May. Until then, enjoy the mountains and the nice, cool mornings in the plains while we still have them (we'll be missing them in August). By next week there could well be localized severe somewhere in the plains, possibly north or central (depending on where local kinks in the flow set up).
This has been a fun thread to watch from the sidelines.
