The future of the season....

[joel ewing]

[ Jesper, I live in Tucson, Arizona (southeast corner of Az.) and personally, I wouldn't waste the time and expense to travel to Arizona right now. Our state, which is always in some sort of drought or another (I've lived here since '61) is in one of the worst ones I can remember. Our normally lush and beautiful sonoran desert where we live is all disheveled and ugly to look at. So many of the cacti (plurel for cactus) are already dead...and the rest are in various stages of death. Thankfully, this does not apply to the big, tall saguaro cacti...the ones you'll often see in movies...with the big thick trunk and several arms.
This time of year (May-June) is traditionally the hottest and driest period annually. We'll have temps tomorrow where I live around 100 degrees-F. Dewpoints this time of year are often in the single digets...oftentimes in the negative catagories. Amazingly, the Phoenix area....a two hour drive north of us here in Tucson..actually had some dry thunderstorms today. These caused a lot of outflow-generated dust storms around here.
By all means...stick to Colorado for awhile. You won't regret it. And don't forget to visit Arizona perhaps in September or October...when we'll hopefully have some rain under our belt from our July-August monsoons...as well as much cooler temps. Good luck!


quote name='Jesper_Copenhagen' date='May 16 2006, 09:48 AM' post='126206']
Hello all stormchasers!

We arrived in Dallas yesterday and are currently thinking about what to do, not much activity down here all we have seen so far are som stratocumulus

But as you all say models sugest that there might be some change for the better in the dynamics of the atmosphere next week.

So we are thinking about driving to Colorado in the lee of the Rockies, and wait there for things to get better, and maybee go for a little sightseeing.

Would that be a good place to wait or should we position ourselves elsewhere?

We also want to get some nice pictures of lightning, where would be the best place to be the next three days in search of isolated thunderstorms (Arizona?)
[/quote]

 

[Jeremy Bower]

I think Shane said it best. May is not over yet and who knows what might happen. The question is with so many people banking on June making up for an inactive May, what happens if June is the same? What I don't want to have happen is everyone give their hopes up on June being great. There are no guarntees. Like I said talk to a chaser that attempted to chase in the mid 1980s where every year was like this it seemed. I have my two weeks of chase vacation beginning Saturday and if I see something then I see something but if I don't, always next year.

 

[nickgrillo]

I'm not saying tomorrow will be a good at all... However, I am wondering... Where do you see "no severe weather"? NAM forecast soundings show quite a nice setup for large hail across the GL tomorrow... From very cold temps at H5 (e.g. -20C to -22C) and very steep low-level lapse rates (approaching dry adiabatic across a lot of the region, particularly southern MI) and strong low-level and total CAPE (1000-1500j/kg using surface parcels) -- with better vertical shear further west -- in the midst of synoptic-scale lift.

http://www.wxcaster.com/modelskewt.php3?mo...&STATIONID=krfd
VERY steep low-level lapse rates (with ~1700j/kg of surface CAPE) with strong deep-layered unidirectional flow -- poising for ~40kts 0-6km shear -- plentiful to sustain bow echo structures/short line segments -- with the potential for both large hail and even damaging winds.

I could imagine some small hailers happening, but as for "real" severe weather -- no way!
[/b]

 

[Dan Robinson]

Doesn't look half bad now, although not the best. But man, will we be way up north this year!
At least for the first few days anyway. Looks like we finally have a departure date on the horizon.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

 

[Justin Turcotte]

Doesn't look half bad now, although not the best. But man, will we be way up north this year!
[/b]

Indeed looks like a nice wave for the NP about a week. Beyond that the pattern looks favorable for potential severe weather somewhere in the central, northern, or high plains each day for another week. High pressure in the Atlantic combined with general trough in the west should allow for plenty of poleward transport of Gulf moisture via the LLJ. It appears we are getting over the hump and now just need to see where the boundaries and cap set up beginning next week.

 

[Mark Farnik]

PLEASE let this damnedable ridge be shifting east and the pattern not only becoming conducive for severe weather but for ANY weather whatsoever! The drought has gotten so bad here that Bill Owens (the governor of CO for those who don't know) declared most of eastern CO a disaster area last Thursday due to the increasingly severe drought conditions and crop/economic losses associated with it. Denver is 3.65 inches below normal for annual precip as of this date, and around where I live we're somewhere in that neighborhood as well. My dad doesn't even know if he'll be able to plant any of his crops this year because there is NO SUBMOISTURE TO PLANT INTO! :angry: So I'm praying that this hellish death ridge is indeed going to shift to the eastern side of the country (where they actually need to dry out, especially New England) and we'll get a nice, juicy trough with lots of shortwaves associated with it sometime next week. When it comes I know I'll be waving the welcome flag for sure! I'm more than ready for some b*****n' awesome High Plains severe weather outbreaks and some rain! BRING IT ON! B)

 

[Chris Kridler]

I'm curious as to what you all think of the GFS and why it behaves the way it does. It seems like most of this season, it's been promising excitement farther out, and then when the time draws near, it changes its mind. I do have hope that the ridge will be breaking down and the pattern becoming more progressive starting next week sometime. I'm trying to figure out when to spend another week in the Alley, since I cut short my trip earlier this month once the Omega Block set in. Perhaps Memorial Day weekend will prove its traditional worth. Insights?
- Chris K.

 

[tom hanlon]

Doesn't look half bad now, although not the best. But man, will we be way up north this year!
At least for the first few days anyway. Looks like we finally have a departure date on the horizon.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
[/b]

I am psyched to head up north. Of course the further you get from the gulf the risk of moisture problems increase. I love that part of the country, see you all in the dakotas.

--
Tom Hanlon

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Wow, what's this on the GFS, a couple chase days?? Monday and Tuesday look like chase days to me in the central and northern plains. Maybe an outside chance of severe in w IA Saturday too, though that looks capped and surely the moisture return by then is questionable.

 

[mark humpage]

This is proving a real humdinger for me and the guys sitting across the pond waiting to pounce. I still don't see anything of real 'meat' value in the next week that is the carrot. Maybe memorial weekend will prove as fruitful as 2004 but its just too early. I'm sorely tempted to fly next week after so long inactivity but I've also learned that patience is a key. There's no rush and June is around the corner.

Mark

 

[rdale]

"Where do you see "no severe weather"?"

Quotes around the wrong part ;> Since the thread was about the chase season, I was referring to the type of storms that people take time off from work for an spend hundreds of miles driving for. I don't see that today.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

A lot more hope now for Monday...

 

[John Hudson]

Could it be we're finally getting out of the doldrums? I have to say that I really like what I see for Monday in NW NB and SW SD. However, the cap's looking a little stronger than I'd like it to be.

Still, it's the best we've seen in quite a while, and it's driving distance from here.

John
VE4 JTH

 

[Jesper_Copenhagen]

I agree with you, we're going to Colorado mountains in the next days as well, staying in strn Plains during ridge is just killing time, at least for us foreigners. I am not sure about Arizona stuff, but as I remember that comes later in the summer. Let me know if you will go to Colorado, we can meet

[/b]

Currently we are in El Paso close to the Mexican border, did not see much covection today, as expected, but Kai Asle caught a very nice picture of a Dust Devil. The text is in Danish but You can see the picture

http://www.kastext.com/Templates/Tornadochase3.html

Tomorrow we are heading north for the elevated terrain in New Mexico in hope of catching some isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours.

Afterwards we are heading for the Rockies and then down to Colorado. So it could be great if we where able to meet, and maybe some other chasers could join as well?

I will send you a pm when we get a little bit closer to Colorado

 

[Dave Kaplow]

Just had a look at the GFS and I'd say things are looking much better now. I'm a relative novice at forecasting, but it looks to me like low level moisture begins to return to the plains as early as the 19th, and in the upper levels a transition to a more zonal flow begins around the 20th (well, for the far northern plains anyway). Even the southern plains might become chaseable as early as th 21st, where I see a possible target in TX, although this is admittedly a very long shot. But by the 23rd we're definitely back in business, with a clearly chaseable pattern that should persist for at least 4 or 5 days (and past that we're in fantasy-prog land anyway). In short, I'd say the gloom and doom scenarios for the season can now be dispensed with.

All this is of course provided that the models don't start to swing the other way again, but that GFS ensemble gives me confidence that this won't happen. It is perhaps heartening to remember back to May '03 and '04 when there were long periods of total inactivity very similar to what we have seen this year. I don't think anyone would call either of those years anything but great chase years. The point is, historically there have been lengthy stretches of down time even in the very best of years, even at the height of the season. I wouldn't even think about writing off '06 as a bad year yet. I'd say that at this point the future of the season looks, if anything, to be quite promising. For damn sure it's looking a whole lot better than it did a few days ago!