The future of the season....

[Sean McMullen]

I've been watching this thread for the past week and man this is just gutwrenching! I have a unique problem here. I'm getting married May 20th to my fiance/chasepartner, Katie Lade. (this isn't the problem though) The problem is that our honeymoon is our chase vacation which will last from May 21st to June. If we don't get some weather we're screwed! I mean we can head out to the mountains and go sightseeing but my girl deserves better than that for her honeymoon.

Your mission if you should choose to accept it, is to go outside after reading this and perform a raindance, then pray to God for tornadoes, then meditate until you can control the dynamics of the atmosphere. I hope this isn't too much to ask, we've been planning this for a year and after last May we didn't think it could repeat itself. HOW DARK THE CON OF MAN! HOW DARK INDEED!

Anyways, just to let you know the reception is at 4:30 at the Lewis and Clark center in Nebraska City, just off Highway 2 near the river, we'll be having an open bar and food so if anyone is on their vacation and doesn't have anything better to do that day feel free to stop by and have a drink, the more chasers the better. Good luck to everyone going out this year.

 

[mark humpage]

Is this reminding anyone of ... oh, say ... 2005?



This has been a fun thread to watch from the sidelines.
[/b]

2005 Yes.

Fun also from the other side of the pond. I am once again, as in 2005, sitting across the pond with bags packed and ready to fly, WHEN patterns improve. I see nothing atm that can stir me from the dulcid grey murk that is summer, as I lie here in my back yard hammock dodging the drizzle. The kids are obsessed with Drake & Josh on the box and the plastic is taking one hell of a bashing from the missus and her shopping trips. How much longer must I wait or how much can I take! :blink:

Groaning to fly.

Mark

 

[Tom Dulong]

Hello fellow European, welcome to the States!

Unfortunatelly there will probably be at least one week of nothing, models finally starting to show at least some marginal stuff after May 22nd. Statistically this s$$$ cannot last so long, but nothing can beat the nature.
I agree with you, we're going to Colorado mountains in the next days as well, staying in strn Plains during ridge is just killing time, at least for us foreigners. I am not sure about Arizona stuff, but as I remember that comes later in the summer. Let me know if you will go to Colorado, we can meet

I can tell you something...there will be an outbreak, on May 27th afternoon, when I have to go home, lol. Hopefully you will have some nice stuff after this ridge dies. We had few nice chase days, lets hope to get some more until our departure.

One question for the USA guys...what exactly are you expecting or hoping...just marginal stuff to get at least some chase days or you're mostly looking after outbreaks? 'cause we can still get some nice storms meanwhile.
[/b]

Indeed, come up here to the Colorado rockies. Melting mountain snowpack gives a localized moisture source that can spawn widely scattered late day thunderstorms (even in the presence of upper level ridging). There would be at least some chance of seeing some lightning or perhaps experience a dry microburst or two.

 

[nickgrillo]

Much too early to tell any real details (like others have mentioned), but I think there will be a decent shot at a few very active severe weather days across the northern plains (e.g. SD, ND and MN) by early next week (and continuing through a lot of the week) as sufficient upper-level flow and southeasterly boundary layer flow yields sufficient shear profiles for organized supercells... With the GFS showing strong moist advection occuring across the entire central US (helping to yield better low-level instability) while capping will appear to be strong across much of the region (not necessarily a bad thing) -- e.g. 700mb temps 10-12C.

 

[Jerry Funfsinn]

[attachmentid=283]

To much time on my hands.

 

[Rob Satkus]

The problem is that our honeymoon is our chase vacation which will last from May 21st to June. If we don't get some weather we're screwed! I mean we can head out to the mountains and go sightseeing but my girl deserves better than that for her honeymoon.


[/b]

There's a joke in there somewhere....sounds like your non chase options during this lull are better than what anyone else has to look forward to.
Congrats on getting hitched...!

RS

 

[J West]

Sounds like you guys need to head north. If we can get some sun tomorrow morning, looks like we'll be cashing in on a Canadian shortwave tomorrow afternoon. No tornadoes, but some possible severe convection...better than nothing at this point.

Perhaps we'll have another year like last year...TOR warnings every other day

 

[David Draun]

Northern IL will be the place to be tomorrow. Our NEXRAD is out until Friday. You know something will happen, LOL

 

[mikegeukes]

This came out today 5/16/06

For Monday May 22 - Friday May 26: Eventually, the trough will move inland, and as it progresses through the Plains, the chance exists for widespread severe weather. At this time, however, it is too early to say if the upper-level conditions will favor such a scenario.

For Saturday May 27 - Tuesday May 30: Recent numerical guidance suggests that the upper-level flow will deamplify, leading to mostly zonal flow. This will allow most of the country, especially the East, to see above normal temperatures. It would also mean that there will be few hazards in the Lower 48[/b]

More information can be found here:
US Hazards Assessment:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictio...ts/threats.html
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictio...ats/threats.gif
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictio...bles_brief.html

6-10 and 8-14 Day Outlooks:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictio...day/fxus06.html

Mike

 

[Shane Adams]

I have a friend who's coming out May 26-June 4 to chase with me on his vacation. We're not worried about models. We're gonna take that week and chase whatever the hell Nature offers us. The thing I find most interesting about this thread is, everyone is convincing themselves May is toast BUT June is gonna be Christmas. Hard to imagine anyone knows what June has in store, being as it's much further away than the next week (which everyone seems to have written off). My advice is walk away from the computer, go back to your lives for a week, then come out and chase. If you bust, you bust. My bro has busted more than he's succeeded but he always comes back with the same fire and vigor as his very first year. You just gotta have the passion....you can't control anything beyond that.

 

[Paul Knightley]

Hi all,

My girlfriend Helen, and I, arrived at DFW this afternoon, and are currently in Edmond, OKC. Not sure about the rest of this week just now, but sightseeing may be the option! Still looking at next week's models with interest - the W Coast trough may just come in in time for us!

 

[Stan Rose]

Well, at least we got in a few days of chasing before the death pattern set in. And chasing in Mississippi was a new experience! :blink: . I'm keeping all my June 'weekends' open for chases, and whenever i get depressed looking at the models i think about all the unfortunate tour clients who spent 3K for a week of no supercells. Speaking of which, if you are stuck in E Colorado and looking for weather related things to do, drop me an email and i'll try to hook you up with a tour of our office (NWS PUB). As Shane said, keep a positive outlook, it helps. We were pretty down the last few days of our trip but still had much fun gaining weight from bars and diners, surveying the Westminster damage, and spotting Elvis in downtown Dallas. Hey--spotting Elvis is at least as good as an F1, no? :lol:

 

[Dan Robinson]

So, what are the roads like in Montana and North Dakota? And I thought last year I put some miles on the car....

11,197 views on this thread

 

[rdale]

Northern IL will be the place to be tomorrow.
[/b]

I could imagine some small hailers happening, but as for "real" severe weather -- no way!

 

[Chad Ringley]

Like Dan, a few of us from NC State postponed our original trip, and are waiting for a pattern "improvement". We got to chase twice with this E coast trof, which was a nice consolation prize, but not what we really wanted behind door #1.

As others have pointed out, we are looking N after the next 7-10 days. Zonal flow will be an improvement and the possibility of a few ejecting s/w over the N Plains seems to what the atmosphere is gonna give us.
Do they require passports to cross the Canadian border now?