State of the Chase Season 2026

[Jason N]

One of the things I noticed this year in Alaska was that for the first time in at least 5 -7 years, all of the Turnagain arm and most of the cook inlet was completely frozen. The first few months of 2026 Ice year were above 2025's and just slightly below the 10yr mean but that's come down a bit in the last month. probably doesn't mean a ton, just an interesting side note.

 

[William Monfredo]

A good sign for the upcoming chase days this week...
a tornado reported in California Sunday associated with the western trough that will later eject into the Plains.
Hopefully, that's not too much hype.

 

[JamesCaruso]

While it has been an interesting stretch in the Midwest, I think it’s fair to say the Southern Plains has been a disappointment this past week, squandering several days of moisture and southwest flow, with a sloshing dryline that unfortunately seemed to be oriented more SW-NE than N-S, with mid/upper flow and shear vectors parallel to the dryline. Hard to believe that at this time last week I was thinking of heading out there, mostly just for last weekend, and I’m sure glad I saved my time and money.

That said, tomorrow (Friday 4/17) looks excellent, but no matter how good it turns out to be, it probably won’t salvage the week relative to initial expectations.

Now personally I’ll be hoping that my trip (day after Mothers’ Day) is favorably timed, allowing a couple weeks of quiet and then turning “due” for an active stretch again. I know it doesn’t quite work that way, but I would be really nervous about May turning quiet if the rest of April was active.