State of the Chase Season 2026

[William Monfredo]

My state of the chase season includes my chasing partner hopefully able to participate more this year than last.
It helps me a great deal to have a second set of eyes on the roads and sky. Think so?

When I mentioned La Niña & dry conditions and that we’d be “dancing with the one that brung us,” the retort was, “But, what if there’s no band?”
I laughed and said, “Yeh, maybe the equipment truck will break down.”

Band or not, we’re living in amazing times to be a weather geek. It’s not just the anomalous ridge and heat in the West.
On 03/24/2026, Juneau, Alaska broke its seasonal snowfall record, with more than 201.2 inches, 16.7 feet, at JNU.
That same day, Vostok Station, Antarctica recorded a temperature of -105.5° F, the coldest temperature ever recorded globally in March.

 

[Boris Konon]

Saw this post recently.
Numerical weather models are projecting huge westerly wind burst signal
over the west Central Pacific over the next few weeks, some AI models are
projecting signals that would achieve near record intensity.

The westerly wind burst projected is as zonally and meridionally broad as
any historical event I recall, and becomes better centered on the equator
than the comparable event of March 1997.

1997-1998 ended up super El Nino, and big WWBs are a tell-tale sign a sig El Nino is imminent.
Not so good chase season 1997, except for those 3 days at the end of May in OK/TX.

 

[John Farley]

Saw this post recently.
Numerical weather models are projecting huge westerly wind burst signal
over the west Central Pacific over the next few weeks, some AI models are
projecting signals that would achieve near record intensity.

The westerly wind burst projected is as zonally and meridionally broad as
any historical event I recall, and becomes better centered on the equator
than the comparable event of March 1997.

1997-1998 ended up super El Nino, and big WWBs are a tell-tale sign a sig El Nino is imminent.
Not so good chase season 1997, except for those 3 days at the end of May in OK/TX.

Slightly off-topic, but I would certainly take a super El Nino if it lasts well into next winter. If that happens, it could bring a big reversal from what happened this winter in the Southwest, making for a break in the Colorado River basin water crisis and a far better ski season next year than this year. So regardless of the somewhat uncertain effects of an El Nino on the chase season (and this one actually looks a little late for any effect, if it does come to fruition), I would be happy to see a strong El Nino next fall and winter.