My main chase vacation starts May 20th but I was thinking of doing an additional, short trip for this coming Wed/Thu/Fri since I can work remotely. I have been looking closely at the models for the period and no longer inclined to make the trip. Just like SPC has a higher probability threshold before putting up a Day 4-8 risk, I have a higher bar before I am willing to deal with the time, money and hassle of a short trip like that. I am limited in how much work I can miss this week - which would mean doing most of my positioning late Tuesday night so that I can work at least a half day on Wednesday. Just doesn’t seem compelling enough. For Wed, the Euro keeps the 500mb flow west of the moisture. GFS does have some co-location of moisture and flow in the TX PH, but with the GFS’s progressive bias I’m not going to bank on that happening. There could be some marginal opportunities for severe on Thu and then nothing much looks to be happening on the southern Plains Fri (which would be a “lame duck day” for me anyway, having to get back home on Sat).
As far as the longer term, it seems like the same negative sentiments appear here every single year. That could very well be because we haven’t had a truly classic “old school” season for many years. But look back and you’ll see that there were still some great days in almost all of those years. For me, 2013 is the gold standard of seasons that even now are looked at negatively for lack of sustained activity over the length of the season, yet had the most packed two-week sequence that I can recall in 27 years of doing this. (And I say that despite personal bitterness for failing to capitalize on any of it
![Smirking face :smirk: 😏](https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f60f.png)
). 2016 was another generally lackluster season dependent upon mesoscale events, but which yielded both Dodge City and Chapman.
So for now, I am holding out hope for the period that begins the 20th. Admittedly, those who have their chase vacations sooner will have a different view; believe me, I’ve been there, and I get it… I may be in your shoes two weeks from now… But this year is also a little different for me because I can work remotely and stay out there beyond my two week vacation. I will be limited in how much more work I can miss, but just being out there is beneficial if a big event happens to present itself, as often seems to happen in Junes that follow a quiet May… Believe me, if there‘s a Pilger type event in the horizon I’ll find a way to chase, regardless of what’s going on at work - it’s a helluva lot easier to do while out there than it is being home in Pennsylvania!
![Smirking face :smirk: 😏](https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f60f.png)