November chase opportunities?

Mar 3, 2004
Mt Prospect, IL
I'm looking at the GFS, and it starts to look interesting for next weekend, Nov 10-11th. A deep trough develops in the Central Plains and brings some fairly good moisture (Td 55F+) into the Midwest. I know it's a little too early to forecast a good day, but it looks interesting.:cool:

Nice, huh?:cool:
Although we're in wishcasting mode at this stage, yes, that shows evident severe potential if it can verify! Quite a warmup there toward the end of the GFS forecast period with 60F+ DPs surging way north. I also like the nice low spinning up there and deepening at the same time. There's an old midwestern saying that anytime it warms up in November or December, watch out.
Does look of interest for the midwest on Saturday, maybe the southeast overnight (bad but typical timing) Saturday or Sunday. Yep, this is the wishcasting stage, but definitely worth keeping an eye on.
Thanks for the heads up, David!!!!:)
I noticed this as well last night. The deepening low in N Oklahoma could definitly bring some severe weather to perhaps SE Kansas into E Oklahoma stretching into N Texas. SBCAPE of 1000-1500j/kg over SE KS/NE OK and values of up to 2000j/kg SBCAPE in E Oklahoma. Like you mentioned earlier 55F+ DP stretches all the way to the KC area and 60F+ in Oklahoma.

Still quite a ways out and anything can happen, but definitly something to watch this week.
The GFS is toning down the moisture return now, with the 60s dewpoints staying mostly south except for a narrow sliver nosing into Kentucky. I've really got to just stop looking at this until Wednesday.
We're being absolutely inundated with storm system after another here in Washington. I have noticed that with a pattern such as this, it's an often good bet that one can expect some "cold core" action out on the plains. Not a forecast, just an observation from out west here.
I took a look at the GFS and saw a pretty strong system move through from Sun through Wed of next week.
The models have been all over the place lately. It seems the NAM is MUCH improved over last year though. Hopefully that trend continues.

The overall trend is towards more storms over the next few weeks though.
"It seems the NAM is MUCH improved over last year though."

This model didn't exist last year...