November chase opportunities?

[David Draun]

I'm looking at the GFS, and it starts to look interesting for next weekend, Nov 10-11th. A deep trough develops in the Central Plains and brings some fairly good moisture (Td 55F+) into the Midwest. I know it's a little too early to forecast a good day, but it looks interesting.

 

[David Draun]

Nice, huh?

 

[Dan Robinson]

Although we're in wishcasting mode at this stage, yes, that shows evident severe potential if it can verify! Quite a warmup there toward the end of the GFS forecast period with 60F+ DPs surging way north. I also like the nice low spinning up there and deepening at the same time. There's an old midwestern saying that anytime it warms up in November or December, watch out.

 

[Angie Norris]

Does look of interest for the midwest on Saturday, maybe the southeast overnight (bad but typical timing) Saturday or Sunday. Yep, this is the wishcasting stage, but definitely worth keeping an eye on.
Thanks for the heads up, David!!!!

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I noticed this as well last night. The deepening low in N Oklahoma could definitly bring some severe weather to perhaps SE Kansas into E Oklahoma stretching into N Texas. SBCAPE of 1000-1500j/kg over SE KS/NE OK and values of up to 2000j/kg SBCAPE in E Oklahoma. Like you mentioned earlier 55F+ DP stretches all the way to the KC area and 60F+ in Oklahoma.

Still quite a ways out and anything can happen, but definitly something to watch this week.

 

[Tony Lyza]

FWIW, the GFS has carried this same system in the same general time period since last Friday.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I'm starting to see interesting stuff within 120h.

 

[Dan Robinson]

The GFS is toning down the moisture return now, with the 60s dewpoints staying mostly south except for a narrow sliver nosing into Kentucky. I've really got to just stop looking at this until Wednesday.

 

[Billy Griffin]

We're being absolutely inundated with storm system after another here in Washington. I have noticed that with a pattern such as this, it's an often good bet that one can expect some "cold core" action out on the plains. Not a forecast, just an observation from out west here.

 

[Dan Cook]

GFS keeps pushing it back towards Monday now.

 

[Andrew Herron]

I too see the GFS pushing it back. I don't think we're going to be able to count on anything until Wednesday.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I took a look at the GFS and saw a pretty strong system move through from Sun through Wed of next week.

 

[Dan Cook]

GFS now has a sub 985 low in Nebraska on Monday.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs180hr_sfc_mslp.gif

 

[Joel Wright]

The models have been all over the place lately. It seems the NAM is MUCH improved over last year though. Hopefully that trend continues.

The overall trend is towards more storms over the next few weeks though.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

The GFS is indicating a possible severe weather event on Friday and Saturday, nothing significant compared to what may happen in the coming weeks, but something to look at. Here are the dewpoint temps for Friday

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs072hr_sfc_dewp.gif