Future of the season part deux

12z ECMWF showing some pretty nice signs in the May 12th on time frame. 2004 II here we come! Jinx lol.
Click to expand...

I saw that too but didn't want to be blamed for the jinx! In contrast, the GFS is maintaining mostly zonal flow through the weekend and beyond, with a few ripples.

This makes me think of the May 22-23, 2008 outbreak. ECMWF had progged the big trough 8-10 days ahead of the event, but GFS would have none of it - until several days later when it finally conceded to ECMWF. Hope that proves an apt analogy this year!

ECMWF has suggested a trough now for the last ~3 runs, but has delayed it a bit each run (from ~May 11 to May 12-13).
 
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Eric Bucsela said:
I saw that too but didn't want to be blamed for the jinx! In contrast, the GFS is maintaining mostly zonal flow through the weekend and beyond, with a few ripples.

This makes me think of the May 22-23, 2008 outbreak. ECMWF had progged the big trough 8-10 days ahead of the event, but GFS would have none of it - until several days later when it finally conceded to ECMWF. Hope that proves an apt analogy this year!

ECMWF has suggested a trough now for the last ~3 runs, but has delayed it a bit each run (from ~May 11 to May 12-13).
Click to expand...

We can only hope. ECMWF is looking light years better at this point. Latest GFS runs aren't pretty...at all.

Though, I didn't think the ECMWF had been terribly consistent either this spring. Mr Pritchard pointed it out... the models are taking a damned beating... who knows.
 
I didn't think the ECMWF had been terribly consistent either this spring. Mr Pritchard pointed it out... the models are taking a damned beating...
Click to expand...

ECMWF looks badly bruised after the 00z run - no more trough. :( I have a feeling we're not in KS in 2008 anymore.
 
This is the first year of Vortex 2, you have to remember that. 1994 was the first year of Vortex and it was a crappy year for chasing. We all know what 1995 was like. That means 2010 will be stellar :)
 
Yea hopefully we didnt waste our good troughing pattern in March and early April when we had a parade of storm systems that were all moisture starved.

Theres still hope. I dont trust the models at all right now. I know its normal to have fluctuations but man, they're really teeter-tottering with each run. It aint over till its over i always say. It will be nice to see things shift out of the damn red river area though. The jet is stuck there it seems. I just hope it doesnt leap frog into Canada come June and skip the mid section completely.
 
Well the GFS has flip flopped again with the 12z showing an active pattern starting early next week well into the week after. So basically all we can do is take it setup by setup the way the models have been handling things, but it looks to be agreeing more with what the ECMWF was advertising a run or two ago!
 
This flip flopping has been driving me crazy too!! And now, once again, the 12z Euro is on board with an active pattern next week. Sheesh! However, until I see more consistency....I'm not going to get my hopes up. But, I did notice that the 12z GEFS ensembles are now hinting at a trough next week as well. But, they did this the other day and then flip flopped too so who knows! Patience I believe will be rewarded this season :)
 
As has been said, looking at the long term models is only asking to stress yourself out. You're not going to learn anything about the upcoming pattern, except that the models don't know.

This May seems it will really favor those with a very flexible schedule, or those that are very lucky and guess the right times. I'm fairly lucky that I can drop and go pretty much anytime until mid-June. With that, I've altogether quit looking at the models beyond about 84 hours. It's pointless.

All that can really be done is hope that climatology plays out. It certainly favors some troughing coming up. You can continue looking at the long term models all you want but it's been clear for a long time now that it will only lead to a roller coaster of "yes! chasing next week!" and "oh darn, ridge next week!".

As Warren said earlier as well, the fluctuation between troughs and zonal flow is probably the best scenario we could hope for. Climatology will favor some troughing in there. Even if worst comes to worst and we end up with zonal or even NW flow, embedded shortwaves will bring severe events to the central part of the country. Heck, in 2003 there were several larger sized tornado events in Illinois and the midwest that were NW flow in nature. Anything is better than a ridge, and at this point at least ridging has not been one of the cards dealt out in the model circus.

My advice is, if you've got a fairly flexible schedule, quit looking at the long term models so much. Look at the -real- weather data and trends, because that's where you'll get a better idea of how the pattern is going to progress.
 
For those about to check into the CNH (chaser nut house) because of SDS, the models are tending to agree on some action in the central plains, beginning as early as Monday. The latest DDC discussion also makes note of this: (Edited below... see the entire discussion for more data). I did notice the NCEP models ***were*** showing a similar active pattern, as depicted by the 12z GFS... so maybe they will all fall in line in 24-72 hrs.

W.

DDC PM Discussion.....
[FONT=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]BY MONDAY...THIS UPPER WAVE IS SHOWN BY A CONSENSUS OF THE 3 MAJOR
GLOBAL MODELS (ECMWF, CANADIAN GEM, GFS) TO BE POSITIONED SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD FORM AT THE SURFACE
IN RESPONSE...PERHAPS AS DEEP AS 995MB ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO OR WESTERN KANSAS/TX-OK PANHANDLES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGH AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING DRYLINE SHOULD THIS
LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLVE AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED WITH AN ENHANCED
THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED SEVERE STORMS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
MONDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THIS LEAD WAVE WILL
RAPIDLY EJECT NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED DIGGING HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE WEST AS THE TROUGH RELOADS..... -UMSCHEID [/FONT]
 
00z ECMWF is in now too. Looking at May 13 00z, the trend over the past 3 days has been to move the low center for the western trough a bit westward and to de-amplify the eastern US ridge. Latest run actually has a weak trough over the East Coast, and a broad western trough centered over Washington state.

The corresponding trend for the GFS has been to dramatically dig the western trough further to the southwest, while slightly amplifying the downstream ridge. On May 13 00z, the current 00z GFS has a deep, positive-tilt trough, centered over California.

These forecasts (for May 13 00z) are now out at +168 hr. Lately, my subjective sense from watching the medium-range models (esp the ECMWF) is that they don't start to "settle down" till you are within about +120 hr. So it will be Thurs or Fri before I can believe anything about next week. What do you all think?
 
The good news is that most of the long range models are now in agreement of setting up SW flow next week. The GFS--NCEP Ensembles are in agreement of a western trough setting up on Tuesday, while the ECMWF hints of SW flow as early as Monday. This would not surprise me, given the "pre-day" event that sometimes occurs 24hrs. before a *forecasted* return of 500mb flow after a prolonged break. Of course the surface features are yet to be determined, but at least it does not appear that moisture will be an issue this time around. This pattern change would also match May climatology and overall pattern that has been present for over a month. Another good sign, although it is totally "sorcering" ATM, is that the Ensembles are showing a western trough as far out as the models go. Thank goodness for cheap gas!

W.
 
Today's 12z ECMWF has now flipped back to zonal flow. This was noted with frustration in the HPC discussion today

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

Over the 8-14 day period, the CPC offers words of encouragement:

"...THE BROAD SCALE RIDGE PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR WEST SHOULD LEAD TO A WET PATTERN AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. "

This year, I'm reluctant to believe in any pattern change until there is at least SOME model agreement/consistency about it in the ~4-5 day forecast. That hasn't happened yet, since the trend has been for models to postpone the change run after run. But think it will happen eventually, and it could still be next week.

EDIT: May 7 00z: ECMWF and GFS have settled back to our friend Zonal Flow for most of next week (with shortwaves rippling through the northern states). If that verifies, this whole Pattern-Change thing could take a while...
 
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This just in....Tornado season moved to the Southeast US this year....:rolleyes:

Anyway, I hate looking at long range models, but looks like the SE & Ohio Valley will be the place to be from the 14th through the 21st!

Yes I'm bias!:D
 
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