Future of the season part deux

[Mikey Gribble]

I'm the last guy to jump on the "this season sucks" bandwagon that imenently happens every year about this time, but this year really has sucked and there isn't any hope in sight. I am pretty damn confident the gfs is fairly close to accurate up till Tuesday. If we coudl get slightly better moisture advected north then it would be a great dryline chase. Wednesday will get some action for sure, but it won't be a tornado setup or in chaseable terrain for the most part.
I don't get this criticism of the people that watch long range models. What else are you supposed to do? Unless you happen to be an expert on planetary circulations and don't have a job so you can observe polar satellite views all day and go over atmospheric conditions literally around the northern hemisphere then there is nothing else to go by. If you want to criticize model watchers then throw out an alternative solution. Tell me how you do it.
Every model has been god awful this year including the NAM. There isn't a damn thing we can do about it and it's still the primary resource that we have for long range forecasting (for chasing purposes).
This zonal flow is absolutely killing me and I never thought this pattern would hold for this long, but I'm still confident we will get at least a couple traditional west coast trough central/southern plains tornado outbreaks. There is plenty of time for that. That's enough ranting for me.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I'm the last guy to jump on the "this season sucks" bandwagon that imenently happens every year about this time, but this year really has sucked and there isn't any hope in sight. I am pretty damn confident the gfs is fairly close to accurate up till Tuesday. If we coudl get slightly better moisture advected north then it would be a great dryline chase. Wednesday will get some action for sure, but it won't be a tornado setup or in chaseable terrain for the most part.
I don't get this criticism of the people that watch long range models. What else are you supposed to do? Unless you happen to be an expert on planetary circulations and don't have a job so you can observe polar satellite views all day and go over atmospheric conditions literally around the northern hemisphere then there is nothing else to go by. If you want to criticize model watchers then throw out an alternative solution. Tell me how you do it.
Every model has been god awful this year including the NAM. There isn't a damn thing we can do about it and it's still the primary resource that we have for long range forecasting (for chasing purposes).
This zonal flow is absolutely killing me and I never thought this pattern would hold for this long, but I'm still confident we will get at least a couple traditional west coast trough central/southern plains tornado outbreaks. There is plenty of time for that. That's enough ranting for me.

Excellent point(s) Mikey... I think the spirit of this thread is to discuss the **models** and how they may apply to future chase opportunities...not so much for pinpoint forecasting, as there are existing forums on ST for that -- up to 7 days out. In some situations, long range predictions are important, for example, if you need to plan vacation or work time around a potentially active or dead period.

I personally think, as a non-scientist, that forecasting models and climatology is fascinating this time of year. The trends, blown forecasts or spot-on predictions are all part of learning, since there is currently no 100 or even 75 percent accurate model more than a few days out. For example: several WSO's were talking about "sloshing drylines" and "major pattern changes" just last Tuesday/Wednesday, then the models flip-flopped and they had to remove all such wording. Such is the way of long range forecasting, especially when things change so dramatically overnight.

The moderators may someday want to add a **models** or climatology forum which might help center the recent discussions and get them away from being viewed as **forecasts.**

W.

 

[joel ewing]

Right about now, I'm just mighty glad that I'm not operating a tornado tour business. Can you imagine driving around the alley with a van full of silent, solumn-faced clients?

 

[Warren Faidley]

More so.... VORTEX2. Can you imagine? All the planning, PR and excitement, especially for new student volunteers, just to be put on HOLD! I wonder what they do when it's this dead? Simply stage down, go home or take long shot chances?

W.

After 168 hours, the models go all over the place! So who knows! Maybe they will flip-flop the other way and offer 45 straight chasing days after the 16th.......

For entertainment purposes only...... {:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/spag_us_alltimes.html

 

[Shane Adams]

I'm not really critical of model watchers, just more in wonder of why they torture themselves the way they do. I'm all about models, but I wait until the 48-hr window to care about what they show. Living and dying with every successive run a week out has got to be such an added stress, I just don't understand why a person would put themselves through that. Yeah, it looks bleak today...but by Monday we could be getting ready for another 3-4 day marathon. Either way, 2009 isn't over by any means.

I'd wager a month from now we're all gonna have some great stories from this season.

 

[Derek Weston]

I've noticed that the GFS is starting to consistently show another good system later in the week next week. Central plains north and east through the midwest, perhaps.

Three days back, or whatnot, I don't think we were seeing this. So... we'll see.

 

[Simon Brewer]

I’m not hopeful for the remainder of the season:

This season has been typical of a spring transitioning from weak La Nina to Neutral ENSO conditions. I’ve discussed this matter extensively with a good friend and good long range forecaster, Jim Bishop, and we were forecasting this type of Spring pattern back in January. The best pattern of the year came in late April due to an MJO wave in the western Pacific. We forecasted the ’Summer Death Ridge’ pattern to take affect by the third weak of May, instead and against all our hopes, the ‘Summer Death Ridge’ appears to have already developed. Unless another MJO wave can develop and propagate into the western Pacific by mid-June then I would expect very few good chases for the remainder of the year.

Best I can really hope for is a few ‘Northwesterly Flow Events’ over the Minnesota/Iowa/Illinois region. Take a good look at very warm 700mb temps, because that will probably be the ‘convection killer’ for the rest of Spring. I'm not sure why the GFS trends towards high amplitude waves 180-240hrs out, but it has been doing so for the past 2 weeks and has yet to verify. This may be an effect from climatology on the model, because a normal May is characterized by a trough in the West and a ridge in the East... not this year.

Simon

 

[Adam Lucio]

I watch long term models and post what I see in hopes an intelligent discussion can follow. About why the models show what they do. It would be nice if people more experience could chime in about how similar forecasts in relation to current patterns played out in the past. All of this helps me and others learn...

but around here thats hard to come by it seems without someone pointing out that the models are unreliable that far out...every person who watches knows this and it doesnt need to be thrown back in their face each time.

UNFORTUNATELY it looks like...so far...the GFS's impending doom of a death ridge is still holding...so at least for those who look far out it wont be a surprise. I still hold hopes and thoughts that we will get a good burp out of the season, where and when right now remains a mystery...

 

[Scott McPartland]

Well, I think I can shed some light as to why some of us torture ourselves with the models. Believe me, if it were up to me, I would love it if I only were able to look out just a few days and then forget about the rest of the run. But the reality of it for us, is living in NYC, we're about as far away from tornado alley as you can get in the US. We're 1500 miles away, and we drive out there, so this is why we torture ourselves with the long range.

We can't just look a few days out, just getting there alone takes us about two days (unless we do the 26 hour marathon drive which we've done, and it stinks!!). On top of that, there are work schedules to work around/adjust. And finally, we only have a limited time per year that Dave and I can chase, and it's about 15 days total. So yeah, we do have a tendency to stress about it. We want to pick the best time to go based off the only information we have, and that's the models. Sometimes we pick right, and sometimes we pick wrong. That's all part of it, but we still try to make the best decision possible.

So to sum up, even though looking out 120-168 hours may seem crazy to some, in reality it's what some of us need to do to plan. But with that said, I am very aware that the accuracy that far out is less than stellar, but....it's still not gonna stop us from looking

As far as my thoughts on the pattern, I am looking more at the ensembles lately and at least as far as the 0z/06z & to a certain extent the 12z GEFS, there's some hinting at a western trough for next weekend. We'll see....god knows the Euro looks horrible as of the 12z run. The GFS control run doesn't look stellar either but again, as Shane said, hopefully a month from now we'll all have some great stories to tell!!! So I'll keep the positive attitude

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I just made a joke in an email this morning about the chase tour groups out there. They've got to be dying lol. Thank god my deal is setup so that I have all season and it's my first year so I don't have very many customers. I still feel like an ass since I have told them May is when it gets good and then in a decent season I'll get 20 plus tornadoes, blah, blah, blah. All I did was tell them the honest to god truth about how chasing is and how it's worked in the past, but people that haven't been chasing/forecasting for years (referring to tour customers) can never understand how unpredictable the season can be. I almost feel like I come across looking like a liar. I never made any promises and I made all of them fully aware of the fact that we are at the mercy of mother nature so that they kept their expectations in check, but I still feel bad.

As Simon mentioned, the GFS's major tendency this year to forecast high amplitude troughs in the long range has made me look like an even bigger ass because I have to give these people a heads up so they can begin considering whether or not they could arrange their schedules to participate in the chase. Then three days later you have a slight bump in the jet stream instead of the monster tornado outbreak in the making you were looking at a few days earlier lol. It sucks.

My fate is nothing compared to the guys that are stuck in the vans 7 days a week with let down customers. It's gotta be a little awkward explaining the situation to each new group when they show up.

 

[Greg Blumberg]

I only torture myself with the long forecasting of the models primarily because I can't stay forever in the Plains. I leave to go back home two weekends from now. It's the life a of a college student in terms of the opportunities of chasing. I especially decided to stay an extra week in Norman in order to chase. If I can't get that, personally it'll really suck because I could be using that time to work. Anything after this Wednesday I'll take and run with it. I pray any of those possible systems actually have something to show for on the GFS. And those cutoff lows need to go away.

 

[Chris Hayes]

I feel bad for the tour groups and the people who go on the tours. I feel bad for the groups because, like Mikey said, they have to explain what is going on and feel like an ass because there is very little if anything to chase. I feel bad for the people who go on the tours because they dish out thousands of dollars to go on a storm chasing tour in hopes of seeing something that 99% of people will never see in their lives, and have little if anything to see.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I know the models aren't showing anything major in terms of outbreaks, but just because we will have NW flow or even zonal or WSW flow doesn't mean we will have NO severe weather, there will likely be a few tornado days over the next few weeks however they will be small and isolated events, just because it doesn't look like the end of the world type of event doesn't mean there won't be any severe weather or good chaseable setups, the models are consistent on having lots of moisture and CAPE around and even in NW flow occasionally you can get some good stuff. I think alot of us have been including myself have been spoiled the last few years because we have always had one good monster outbreak(s) to look forward to such as May 4-5, 2007 and obviously May 22-26, 2008. Those were seen WAYY out there, very easy forecast and over great terrain. I think some of us tend to expect that to happen every year, but that was a pretty rare deal especially to happen two years in a row.
I am keeping an optimistic attitude, the GFS is still showing zonal flow or maybe even some SW flow next week and I think we could see some good stuff so we shall see.

 

[John Hudson]

I know the models aren't showing anything major in terms of outbreaks, but just because we will have NW flow or even zonal or WSW flow doesn't mean we will have NO severe weather, there will likely be a few tornado days over the next few weeks however they will be small and isolated events, just because it doesn't look like the end of the world type of event doesn't mean there won't be any severe weather or good chaseable setups, the models are consistent on having lots of moisture and CAPE around and even in NW flow occasionally you can get some good stuff. I think alot of us have been including myself have been spoiled the last few years because we have always had one good monster outbreak(s) to look forward to such as May 4-5, 2007 and obviously May 22-26, 2008. Those were seen WAYY out there, very easy forecast and over great terrain. I think some of us tend to expect that to happen every year, but that was a pretty rare deal especially to happen two years in a row.

Right you are, and it is very easy to get spoiled. The truth of it all is that some of us kind of have to almost DEPEND on outbreaks for a real chance of seeing anything, because we live so darned far away from all the action. The luxury of living in the Alley (and yes, I'll admit a good deal of jealousy on this score) is that if you miss it all one day, what the heck, there will be plenty more next week, the week after, whatever.

For non-Plains dwellers, it just doesn't work that way. We spend the 1 or 2 grand for a one or two week window, and if we miss it, that's it. We've blown it for the SEASON. There's just not that much time (or money) to go off half-cocked chasing marginal setups all over the Plains.

It is this fact that makes the current situation such a bitter pill to swallow. My chase partner just started three weeks vacation, so we could hedge our bets on a decent setup. And now?


John
VE4 JTH

 

[Chris Gullikson]

I head to OKC tomorrow to drive for Tempest Tours for the rest of this month. I have been following the long term models and ensembles with a curious interest but not buying the consensus that we are going to be ridged out for the next several weeks.
Even if we do get the dreaded ridge-o-death, there is usually convection to be found in the higher terrain or in the NW flow under the ridge.
I have seen some incredible structure associated with high based convection in an area of "see text" with beautiful backdrops and no chaser hordes to share it with. Spending a few weeks under a ridge will usually reward you with a nice surprise event, you just have to be out there to see it. In my experience, our guests are very understanding when conditions are not favorable for tornadic storms and they seem to always have a great time touring the beautiful plains and seeing non-severe storms.

Hopefully my optimism will reward me with a classic SW flow event with 70 dews nosing into Barber and Harper counties...