Future of the season part deux

[Nick Hartley]

Lol, I was actually thinking the same thing (as a joke so please don't take offense as I do realize the 'main' tornado season is probably over)...However, the season isn't done for me yet up here in Minneeesooootah - not until September anyway

Ditto that, the season stays decent here until the end of September. Then it's blizzard chasing season.

 

[Scott Olson]

North Dakota can be very interesting in July. Same way up into Northern Minnesota. August/September can be very erratic and usually provide at least a couple oppurtunities. One only needs to hit SVRPLOT and see that tornadoe numbers spike downward in July only to spike back up again in August. Some of the most powerful supercells occur in August or late July when moisture is at it's peek for the Northern Plains and an unseasonably strong wave manages to come through and challenge the otherwise fearsome cap. That is the time of year where I have seen storms go in 5000-6000 j/kg MLCAPE. It's an amazing sight to see as you blink your eyes and the storm has grown significantly. It also tends to yeild much less obvious targets.

Nick and I do thoroughly expect to get another tornado before the year is out. I am personally up to six tornadoes for the year, which incredible have all been in South Dakota.

 

[Skip Talbot]

Speaking of the Dakotas, and for all you wishcasters out there... the GFS has a trough coming in the 204-228 hour range with all the fixin's. We'll see if that hangs around on the next run.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I saw that to Skip. North Dakota looks very interesting along the warm front on July 9 I think it is. We are keeping a close eye on it, but like you said lets see what the next run of the GFS says.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Speaking of the Dakotas, and for all you wishcasters out there... the GFS has a trough coming in the 204-228 hour range with all the fixin's.

Hopefully the fixin's don't include the 13-15c H7 temps the GFS is showing.

 

[Mark Blue]

Looks like the ECMWF is showing that same trough at 500 mb for the July 9th time frame. A trough coming into the high plains during July wouldn't hurt my feelings one little bit!

 

[Skip Talbot]

Hopefully the fixin's don't include the 13-15c H7 temps the GFS is showing.

Unfortunately, they do Just like fruit cake and sweet potatoes on Thanksgiving.

The 204 hr plots look like a day-before-the-day type deal, which often feature great veering wind profiles but a stout cap. I'll chance a cap bust in the Dakotas if I get two shots at a chase though.

 

[John Hudson]

The 204 hr plots look like a day-before-the-day type deal, which often feature great veering wind profiles but a stout cap. I'll chance a cap bust in the Dakotas if I get two shots at a chase though.

If you want to avoid the cap, you can always chase southern Manitoba or Saskatchewan. You'll never get better chase terrain than we have here (on a clear day you can see Vancouver!) due to the flat prairie landscape.

Just bring plenty of bug juice.

John
VE4 JTH

 

[Mark Blue]

Speaking of the Dakotas, and for all you wishcasters out there... the GFS has a trough coming in the 204-228 hour range with all the fixin's. We'll see if that hangs around on the next run.

I was wondering what happened to this thread, so I looked it up. Seems like this forecast actually verified to an extent with most of the reports for tornadoes in the Northern Plains taking place on July 8th. Seems like we're in a typical summer pattern right now with Texas and Oklahoma baking like big dogs. I hope it cools down for them the next few days as they need some serious relief!