Future of the season part deux

Gee, it would be a shame if this thread died after only 62,000 views.

Thought I'd share this short post from Mike Umscheid's blog (regarding his chase-cation which starts on June 11th) High Plains Drifter:
It appears our first day (June 11) will not be too far from southwestern Kansas: Raton Mesa or just north of there, about a 3 to 4 hour drive from Dodge City. Thereafter, the pattern looks excellent for High Plains storm chasing/photography for much of the trip! More later!
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Although he isn't speaking for the NWS in his blogging capacity, I do like it when a operational meteorologists talks that way about the upcoming weather pattern!
 
It looks like the pattern will become very favorable next week especially from Sunday through Wed for high plains/upslope supercells for areas of Eastern CO North through Western NE per both the European and GFS Models. In fact it may be the best week overall that we have had all year. I will be chasing next week from June 14-June 19 so I hope that the pattern that is being indicated verifies. It kind of sucks for the Vortex 2 team as thier last day is Saturday June 13. It would be sort of ironic if there are supercells dancing all around the high plains next week considering the V2 team will be done for the year.
 
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I had no idea we would reach over 500 posts in this thread when it all started back on March 30!

What is really amazing is that the season had all the earmarks of a banner season until the May "break." I guess the good news is that bad seasons generally do not run in pairs.

I plan to spend the next 5-7 days in eastern and NE Colorado before heading home to get ready for the monsoon and hurricane seasons.

Good luck to all for the rest of the season up north and NE.

W.
 
Dan Cook said:
Hopefully the Canadian prairies will be active in July. After the bad May chase, I'm heading back up there with COD.
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I am hopeful also, Dan, but I'm not going to be holding my breath.

Today is June 10, just ten days away from summer solstice, and we have yet to see our first good thunderstorm of the year. Although better temperatures are forecast beginning next week, it has been unbelievably cold here this year.

In fact, I can't remember a worse start to spring/summer here since, well, 2006.

John
VE4 JTH
 
The GFS (up until the 12z run) had been showing this trough stalling over the wrn US and lobbing out shortwave after shortwave across the central Plains. The 12z run has trended toward the 0z and 12z ECMWF in strengthening the ridge over the east-central US and cutting off the western trough which parks there for a while. If this materializes, we're looking at a few days of High Plains chasing this weekend followed by central Plains warm front setups (or dryline magic depending on the cap strength) early next week before shifting further north late next week. Lets hope that northern shift in the polar jet isn't the end of the 2009 "tornado season".

Right now I'm thinking Monday could be a big day.
 
THis weekend definitely looks like it could have some nice upslope flow ops out in CO. As Chad mentioned, Monday looks like a big day out in the southern plains. I'd probably be conflicted about whether or not to stay in CO, however. If I could have done last weekend over I would have stayed out west the entire time bagging tornadic sups everyday instead of cap busting in Iowa on Saturday and bagging a non tornadic sup on Sunday. If that low level jet on the GFS verifies though, that might get me out of CO. That was one thing we were sorely missing last weekend.
 
Might be time to take some vacation time folks. This weekend and well into next week (through Wednesday on the GFS) looks like it could have chase ops everyday. There is a nice area of southwest flow and instability hanging around in the plains for potential dryline and upslope setups.
 
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Even here in southern Ontario is a quiet storm season thus far... we had one somewhat significant event back at the end of April and that was the only local chase I've done this year (thank goodness for the alley trip). What I have noticed it has been rather unseasonably cool here as well... although yesterday it finally felt like summer! Today is just right... sunny skies, cu and comfortable temps... just need the severe wx so I can try my new Canon Rebel T1i out on them, heh.
 
My lord, this thread is long now. As far as the "future of the season" goes, I think it might be all she wrote for Oklahoma and points south. Looks like an active period may be beginning for the northern plains, but with my distance restrictions, it looks like it's about time to put the gear away.
 
Laura Duchesne said:
Even here in southern Ontario is a quiet storm season thus far... we had one somewhat significant event back at the end of April and that was the only local chase I've done this year (thank goodness for the alley trip). What I have noticed it has been rather unseasonably cool here as well... although yesterday it finally felt like summer! Today is just right... sunny skies, cu and comfortable temps... just need the severe wx so I can try my new Canon Rebel T1i out on them, heh.
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The same thing here in Chicago and points north and northwest. One of our local tv stations pointed out that this may be our coolest first half of June in over 50 years! Something really stubborn making this cold air just sit over us like this for so long. But things maybe changing as the severe weather may heading toward us later this week with the warmer air in the plains.
 
Jacob Ferden said:
My lord, this thread is long now. As far as the "future of the season" goes, I think it might be all she wrote for Oklahoma and points south. Looks like an active period may be beginning for the northern plains, but with my distance restrictions, it looks like it's about time to put the gear away.
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:( Sad but apparently true with a high pressure ridge in place over central texas. Severe weather does have a postive affect in terms of rainfall.

I still have a faint but desperate hope for the last week of June. Funny thing is north central texas and down by brownsville got plenty of rain this spring, but not around austin San Antonio back west into Real county. There just seemed to be a dead zone in central texas this year. Looks like water restrictions ahead.
 
Just thought I'd throw this in too: This is the longest the Twin Cities area has made it into the year without severe weather. The previous record was June 14th, 1992. We have an outside chance of seeing some on Thursday and perhaps a better chance next week. The problem has been what seems like a 1-2 month "delay" in the synoptic pattern. Cold air has been almost continuously pushing into the S. Plains and stalling out, allowing for day-by-day precip along the boundary and even further blocking the northern states from the Gulf. Based on what I'm seeing and what the models are trending towards this will probably change in the next week or so as the jet moves north and the summer ridge builds across the C./S. Plains. Case and point: GFS runs for mid-week next week. The heat ridge across the south is going to become the dominant feature with the troughiness being forced to the north. I'm at the point right now where I'm excited if we get anything involving upward motion.
 
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