Future of the season part deux

[Warren Faidley]

Big question will be moisture return following passage of the next front.

Hopefully this will not be a repeat of early season issues with good shear but poor CAPE.

W.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Warren,

The mositure does seem to be there as well as the flow!

Therefore I am returning to the USA this Friday - The week 6th - 13th June just looks wicked!

 

[Andrew Stoller]

Geez Stuart, you may want to try and get here on Thursday, because both Friday and Saturday look decent.

Caping is the only concern I'd have at this point, but that may be a good thing to keep convection more isolated.

I'm getting all my ducks in a row at work so I can basically take June off.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

LOL Andrew,

I have only been home two days after a two week chase! But I am looking at coming back Thursday but I fear that the wife may freak out if I leave before Saturday!

Still.... I am more than tempted to face the wrath of the wife as it does look good.

 

[Paul Sherman]

Lol

Thought you might have learnt from Last year Mr Robinson
My 5 weeks I have just had is it for me, no negotiating or Bribes will work now, just gotta watch those lovely June Moderate Risks with 15% Tor Risks There is always 2010 in May!

But i agree from Thursday onwards until Mid June does at the moment look tasty, good luck all June Chasers and Vacationers!

Paul Sherman

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

I just put in for Friday and Monday off (June 5-8) and was given the OK. Looks like I'll be out on Thursday June 4th late into Kansas City, and points west of there throughout the weekend.

After 3 weeks of garbage, between next to nothing in the central US and rains after 10 AM every day in S Florida, I used absolutely none of my 5 vacation days so far and cancelled my May 21 to June 1 trip which I feel was a very WISE choice.

I will also watch for activity from June 12-15 as well. I have 2 free plane tickets to do this, so I'm gonna make them count!

Gentlemen, let the games begin...

 

[Patrick Martin]

I to have been sitting on unused PTO, however when I got into work today, I immediately put in for Friday off. If the current model runs hold, I'm looking to be out Friday and Saturday.

Also noticed this nice little tid bit from the GLD forecast discussion:
STILL A BIT EARLY...BUT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A CLASSIC SET UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

Cross em if you got em folks. We need all the luck we can get to have this verify!

 

[Dave Kaplow]

If you believe the models, and it's getting harder not to, I'd say there's at least a week or two of good May-like weather in store for the Plains. And who knows, maybe the whole month of June will be active.

So I'll go ahead and say it: June is the new May.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

So I'll go ahead and say it: June is the new May.

Sure, until the next active May.

Actually, as a Wisconsinite I'm biased towards preferring June anyway...or maybe August.

I'm just glad to have the elevated thunderstorms last night and tonight...

 

[Derek Weston]

0z GFS paints a very active pattern to through out the period... with another significant upper low and nice troughing again towards end of period.

The immediately impending chase days not looking quite a strong...

Certainly an encouraging run, however.

 

[Eric Bucsela]

For next Tues into the following weekend, the 06z GFS looks even better than the 00z did, with near-continuous SW flow. The ensembles basically agree. Very nice.

What a contrast last nite's 00z ECMWF, which is now suggesting either no chasing at all or lame NW flow events starting Mon and continuing all week. If the two models are gonna disagree, I'd sure rather have the EC showing the better pattern.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

For next Tues into the following weekend, the 06z GFS looks even better than the 00z did, with near-continuous SW flow. The ensembles basically agree. Very nice.

What a contrast last nite's 00z ECMWF, which is now suggesting either no chasing at all or lame NW flow events starting Mon and continuing all week. If the two models are gonna disagree, I'd sure rather have the EC showing the better pattern.

I typically would agree but the GFS has been showing this pattern for over a week now while the ECMWF can't make up its mind. 9 times out of 10 I'll go with the most consistent even if the Euro is considered "better". I have brought this up alot but I remember the ECMWF last year before the May 22-26 outbreak was keeping the trough over the Rockies and everyone said the same thing but the GFS ended up the winner and we saw the largest Kansas tornado outbreak in history. Just something to think about.

 

[Bob Hartig]

While all eyes are on Saturday in the Plains, the 6Z GFS paints a pretty compelling scenario for the Midwest on Monday. Low poised in IA, great backing winds, nice overlay of low- and mid-level jets over SBCAPE in excess of 4,000, ample moisture...if that scenario verifies, then Iowa, Illinois, and probably Wisconsin will see some hellacious activity. As I write, the 12Z GFS is still filling in. I hope it shows continuity, because I can't make the party on Saturday.

 

[Eric Bucsela]

Originally posted by Michael O'Keeffe:
I remember the ECMWF last year before the May 22-26 outbreak was keeping the trough over the Rockies and everyone said the same thing but the GFS ended up the winner and we saw the largest Kansas tornado outbreak in history.

I remember just the opposite in the days before the outbreak started - I thought that was a good demonstration of the Euro's superiority (at least for medium-long range). It had been forecasting a major pattern change with a western trough at least 9 days in advance, while the GFS had a ridge in the same area. Over the next few days, ECMWF stayed consistent, while the GFS gradually came around to agree:



Top 2 panels are the 216 hr forecasts valid 00z May 23 2008 from ECMWF and GFS, respectively. Bottom two panels are same models/same date, but the 120 hr forecast.

 

[Derek Weston]

While all eyes are on Saturday in the Plains, the 6Z GFS paints a pretty compelling scenario for the Midwest on Monday. Low poised in IA, great backing winds, nice overlay of low- and mid-level jets over SBCAPE in excess of 4,000, ample moisture...if that scenario verifies, then Iowa, Illinois, and probably Wisconsin will see some hellacious activity. As I write, the 12Z GFS is still filling in. I hope it shows continuity, because I can't make the party on Saturday.

GFS has gone back and forth with this one... showing a potential big outbreak (not necessarily tornadoes) day in the upper Mississippi river valley corridor. Lately, though, has been trending for a more southern solution where the lower Miss River Valley area gets it.