Future of the season part deux

[Austin Funderburgh]

I'm just dying here. WTF is the problem. I'm trying to put a number to how bad this season is. 2006 was armagedon compared to this so don't bring that up. How far back to you have to go to really hit a god awful season? I looked at the tornado count records, but those are BS. That weak little storm by Ark City that produced dust whirls got credit for four tornadoes. I want to know from a chaser's perspective (not tornado #'s which don't translate well into what we are looking for) how long has it beeen since there was a season worse than this one. I haven't been chasing long enough. I can pretty much cover the past decade, but the older guys are going to have to answer the question because IMO there hasn't been anything worse in the last 10 years. Any answers?

Yeah, the tornado count doesn't really sum up how bad this season has been mainly for us plains chasers. It seems like at least 80% of the tornadoes have been outside Tornado Alley, mainly the SE US. Even in May (e.g. May 3 and May 6). Oh and I certainly won't forget May 5 when we got that nice storm outside of Breckenridge that failed to produce and I got to the motel and saw all the tornadoes in NC! Sums up the whole season.

 

[Rich Thompson]

1988 was worse. It didn't thunder at OKC during April, and there were only 2 tornadoes in OK during May. The situation wasn't any better in KS, and the only big day of the spring was 8 May in IA/IL. The next best event was sometime in mid June around Denver.

The good thing about back then was a much smaller chase radius for most folks, and no constant access to 10-16 day forecasts. After a supercell in late March, the OK chase "season" just seemed to end without ever beginning. At least there wasn't much in the way of false hope.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

One more shot next week / week after if any models showing the trough entering W US verify. After that, MAYBE something will happen in the fall "mini season".

2006 had a nice tornado event event on Sept 16 in SD if anyone remembers, making 2006 still bad for it's spring, but not as bad as it would have been.

If there is no "events" in the fall, then 2009 will surely be the "ash tray" of all chase years, just like 1988 (or worse).

 

[Chris Carter]

Yea, this spring season has not been a good one, taking a look back last year, May 2008 produced nearly 600 tornadoes. So far for May we have seen 213 (not including the possible ones going on right now in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio) but we have seen dryer Mays, note 2005 and 2006. I also noted that during those dry months, June and July usually made up for it. Hope for the future?

I am going to go watch "Twister" just to put a smile on my face. What i would give to see a storm with some nice structure.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I remember 2000 being a very slow year.

 

[Jeff Passner]

There have been many "bad" years.... This year has been bad so far but who knows what will happen in June. Still, as Rich Thompson noted, this does not even come close to 1988. My gosh, I chased on a day with a 50 dew point in the Panhandle it was so bad. My highlight for the whole season was a storm near Seymor, Texas on June 1 that dropped 3/4" hail. That was IT... The highlight of a storm season was 3/4" hail. This season, I've actually seen two tornadoes, but what stinks is how boring it has been. Really, there have not been many tough forecasts; it's just been boring. The next two weeks might get more interesting if you like upslope storms in Colorado. Still, nothing this year compares to 1988.... There have been other stinky years. For me 2004 was terrible... Eastern Nebraska, Iowa, and NE Kansas are just too far away for me and west Texas had nothing. Sometimes, it just depends on where you are that makes or breaks a season. 2008 was my best year ever because much so much happened here in New Mexico.

 

[joel ewing]

Future of the season

Seems to me that perhaps I got to the alley kind of late and perhaps this is why I remember it this way...but I always thought that 2002 was one lousy season. I remember Doren Berge and I going all the way to the s.e. corner of Montana...of all places. Had quite a chaser convergence there...with names like Doswell (and Ms. Vicki), Stumpf, and a host of others. Remember that day guys....can you say "cold undercutting outflow?". Gorgeous country up there though.
Ahhh, quit gripin' guys. Let Ma Nature get these gutterballs out of the way, and straighten herself out. Like I've said...I've always preferred June anyways.
And the good news here in southeast Arizona is that I have my bride totally under my magical, hypnotic spell. Just three nites ago she heard me cussing at the computer...again...(reading this very thread), and said..."look...you and Doren go ahead and chase for a few weeks. If you don't get anything...why don't you just fly home for awhile and then fly back out when it looks better?"

 

[Mark Farnik]

Inevitably, the trough predicted for the middle of the month will verify and there will be an extremely active pattern for chasing from June 9-14, as I will be in Las Vegas for the National Press Photographer Association's Convergence(ironic name, I know) Conference, and then on June 15 I'm moving in to my new apartment, so I'm out of commission for essentially an entire week.

I'm extremely glad I got out and caught the tornadoes in Roger Mills County, OK on April 26th... otherwise I think I'd have pulled all my hair out from shear (or should I say lack thereof) frustration. 2009 has been far and away my most mediocre season in the four years I've been chasing.

Oh well, you can't expect every year to be a 2003, 2004 or 2008...

 

[Olivier Staiger]

Coming to America I am.
Chase storms starting next friday I will.
Speak like Yoda I do...
With me the F4rce be may.

 

[Matt Grantham]

Is it time to celebrate? The 12z GFS trended strongly towards the 00z Canadian and UKMET ejecting the trough eastward by Friday and Saturday. Very nice.

 

[Leah Robertson]

It's nice to see that both the ECMWF and GFS are starting to consistently hint that the tumultuous death ridge is wanting to finally flatten out. Of course, that's still several days away and the models still need to cut back on all the acid trips they have been on this year, but at least this is a much more encouraging trend.

 

[Rob Wadsworth]

Is it time to celebrate? The 12z GFS trended strongly towards the 00z Canadian and UKMET ejecting the trough eastward by Friday and Saturday. Very nice.

A new trend is a welcome thing. I might head back into KS for a few days - in a week or so - if there is a definite change twards the positive. Today is looking more like central Iowa and SE Nebraska. I'll be watching it closely from CA.

 

[Ken Johnson]

06z started this trend and now continues...With strong ridging aloft that far away, I hope everything don't wind up being capped!

Could be some more hope late next week too!

 

[Steve Burre]

Still hoping for the annual big, final show in the Texas Panhandle around June 11 (for us in the southern plains)

Been on one decent chase all year...I think I have to go back to 1980 for something as bad (at least I didn't have to endure that summer).

On the oher hand, I've applied the money not spent chasing to a new i7 920 computer system with solid state disk for the OS/apps, Windows 7 RC 64-bit, etc..

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Two models (EWMCF and GFS) both have the dreaded REX block off California intensifying, becoming less "cut off" and moving EAST across the Great Basin by Friday (June 5) and after.

I am on the "trigger finger" to book tickets thursday night into KC and head west and return Tuesday morning (June 9).

May 2009, for what is was NOT worth, is gone and June should be much better for those lucky enough to change their schedules.

Looks like W KS will be a good start on Friday / Saturday, June 5-6 with changes of a significant severe weather event those days and into Sunday / Monday (June 7-8) with a good lee trough / cyclogenesis - Finally.

Fingers remaining crossed!