Future of the season part deux

Rob Wadsworth said:
Does anyone know what it is -in particular- that the vortex2 guys are going to gather in the way of data that hasn't already been collected before?

Sorry for the dumb question, but what new parameter are they going to discover - or what new physical trait are they going to uncover? Personally, I think they just wanted to go storm chasin and found an excuse to have a huge tax write-off and some fun at the same time!!
LOL!

But seriously, does anybody know what they are trying to find out more about the storm?
Click to expand...

They have a lot of info here:

http://tinyurl.com/me8br2
 
Rob Wadsworth said:
Does anyone know what it is -in particular- that the vortex2 guys are going to gather in the way of data that hasn't already been collected before?

Sorry for the dumb question, but what new parameter are they going to discover - or what new physical trait are they going to uncover?
Click to expand...

This doesn't speak directly to Vortex2 goals/research, but it does indicate how many questions we still have and how much we need to learn. Paul Markowski, for example, says:

There are a number of aspects of supercell thunderstorms and tornadogenesis that remain poorly understood. Among these are the four-dimensional forcings of RFDs and the dynamical role of RFDs in tornadogenesis, the importance of microphysical differences among supercells and how those microphysical differences arise, the thermodynamic characteristics of supercells above the ground, the effects of radiative transfer processes on storm dynamics, the dynamics of storm-storm and stormboundary interactions, and the importance, if any, of meso-γ-scale variability (such as that due to dry boundary layer convection) on storms. I am optimistic that substantial gains in understanding can be achieved in the not-too-distant future as a result of new field projects, continually increasing computing power, and growing interest in severe convective storms worldwide.
Click to expand...

The 2 page paper is worth a read:
[URL="http://met.psu.edu/%7Emarko/trieste.pdf"] Markowski, P., 2007: Tornadogenesis: Our current understanding, operational considerations, and questions to guide future research. Preprints, 4th European Conference on Severe Storms, Trieste, Italy.[/url]
 
Can someone please put the GFS in a straightjacket and place it in a padded room for a run or two?
 
Dodge City's forecast discussion from this afternoon goes into much detail about the upcoming situation. They seem fairly confident in a persistent trough solution.

"....DEVELOPMENT OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING WEEK TWO IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE GWO AND LIKELY WILL OCCUR AS ENHANCED TROPICAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SPREADS EASTWARD. A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS LIKELY IN MID JUNE."
 
Andrew Stoller said:
Man, I want to go chasing SO BAD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! PLEASE let the 12Z GFS verify. It's showing all next weekend to be good - with TX Panhandle and western KS opportunities, with a prolonged multi-day warm front/dryline triple point type setup.
Click to expand...

FWIW the 12Z operational GFS from today was ridiculous outlier. The ensemble products fall much more in line with what the ECMWF has to offer (Cutting off the low and parking it off the coast of Cali).
 
sdienst said:
Dodge City's forecast discussion from this afternoon goes into much detail about the upcoming situation. They seem fairly confident in a persistent trough solution.

"....DEVELOPMENT OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING WEEK TWO IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE GWO AND LIKELY WILL OCCUR AS ENHANCED TROPICAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SPREADS EASTWARD. A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS LIKELY IN MID JUNE."
Click to expand...

Sounds like that forecast office is in touch with the GSDM method. I've been following the GAAM tendency, the GWO and other factors. I agree with the discussion and expect decent chase setups to begin next weekend (June 6/7) and for a supportive pattern to persist for a week to ten days after that.

The "good chase pattern" could hold longer if the MJO re-emerges over the Indian ocean and propogates eastward over the next couple weeks.
 
FWIW the 12Z operational GFS from today was ridiculous outlier. The ensemble products fall much more in line with what the ECMWF has to offer (Cutting off the low and parking it off the coast of Cali).
Click to expand...

The 12z Op/GFS today was very much in line with the ensembles. Check out this link I posted earlier today:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/fcsts/ens500_12z29May2009_534_f192.png

The control run is in black and is in line with the NCEP mean and member consensus :) The 18z ensembles look good as well.
 
Ed Berry updated his blog with some encouraging words.

At some point this jet is likely to come into the western states while collapsing, leaving a trough in its wake. This could lead to a very active southwest flow storm track focusing on the central/northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley regions ~mid June.
Click to expand...

Also take a look at the NAM the ridge in Mexico is non existent by 0z Sunday which is encouraging.
http://twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2009&model_mm=05&model_dd=30&model_init_hh=06&fhour=66&parameter=WSPD&level=500&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&archive=false
 
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