Future of the season part deux

[Warren Faidley]

I think the real discussion will soon be why the models are performing so horribly this year -- although surprisingly consistent in poor forecasting. It seems they have some kind of built-in climatological element that wants to pollute the algorithms.

W.

 

[Derek Weston]

I think the real discussion will soon be why the models are performing so horribly this year -- although surprisingly consistent in poor forecasting. It seems they have some kind of built-in climatological element that wants to pollute the algorithms.

W.

They seemed to nail the crappy pattern we're in right now pretty well.

 

[al pietrycha]

June 12, 2005 was "made" by an outflow boundary that remained draped across N-C Texas from overnight convection from a large MCS on June 11 (the day prior).

This boundary acted like a warm / stationary front would during the early spring, with potent dryline surging eastward. The cyclic supercell formed where these two met (a triple point).

For kicks here's a sfc map from that day. I also include a map from June 9th (Hill City/Stockton day) as that was mentioned earlier.

The purple * denote ~ locations of the tornadoes

--Al

 

[joel ewing]

Future of the season

June 9th, 2005...wow, what a day! Probably the best footage I've ever gotten. I forgot to mention that day also in my most recent post. Thanks for showing me the drawing of that day, I've never seen that. I remember sitting in the Norton library seemingly for hours...waiting to really know what move to make.

 

[Ken Johnson]

18z GFS looks great starting about a week from now, with active weather lasting through the middle of the month. I do realize it's a long way off, but this does match some of the 12z Ensembles.

 

[Connor McCrorey]

18Z 360 hour GFS shows a southwesterly 50 kt H5 jet over west Texas?? Am I dreaming? Lol no, but I'm sure the GFS is

 

[joel ewing]

Future of the season

Yes, and on that note....what date does Vortex....I mean "Wart-Rex" 2, cease operation?
All in fun....zero disrespect to the Vort2 folks. I truly do feel sorry for them. They have sunk their hearts and souls into this.
Life....she is mos def full of trials. Gotta motor thru them. Easier said than done.

 

[Skip Talbot]

They are running until June 13 this year. If the GFS is right, they may have an explosive end to their expedition and come home with precious data.

 

[Rob Wadsworth]

Does anyone know what it is -in particular- that the vortex2 guys are going to gather in the way of data that hasn't already been collected before?

Sorry for the dumb question, but what new parameter are they going to discover - or what new physical trait are they going to uncover? Personally, I think they just wanted to go storm chasin and found an excuse to have a huge tax write-off and some fun at the same time!!
LOL!

But seriously, does anybody know what they are trying to find out more about the storm?

Sorry guys, but I took Mr. Faidley's advice and called it a year. I'm on my way back to California as I write this. Staying another 5 days and taking the chance of a bust was just too much for me at this time. My dog misses me back home.

May God Bless all of you and protect you as you hunt the storm. Lord willing, I will be out this coming year and have more time to chase...

 

[Chris Nuttall]

But seriously, does anybody know what they are trying to find out more about the storm?

One of their key interests in the RFD. From V1, they learned that the RFD seems to play a huge role in why any particular storm produces a tornado. Researchers are particularly interested in the instability of the air of the RFD. But, this is just one thing they want to study. Every storm is unique and presents something different.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

The new Op GFS is a lot different than the previous run, and looks a lot like the 12Z Euro. At first glance this looks like not a good thing, but despite the model
keeping the closed low well offshore through 10 days, the ridge in the West flattens with pretty good westerly flow over the top into the central plains, with several
areas of low pressure traversing the area later in the week into the weekend. Of course the ensembles are yet to come out, and it will be interesting to see what the Euro has to say.
I expect a lot more model gyrations the next few days, so I guess the best thing for my sanity is to just concentrate on Monday which still has decent potential
in the CO/KS area.

 

[Eric Bucsela]

How often does the GFS come up with an original idea in the 5-10 day forecast range, stick with it, and have the ECMWF follow suit? I can't think of an example, but I know lots of examples of the reverse happening. And today is looking like one of them, unfortunately. The ECMWF - and now the GFS - is keeping the low off the CA coast, strengthening the ridge in the SW US, which leads to NW flow over the Plains into late next week.

But at least we'll have flow again. Maybe we'll get lucky and it will become zonal, like we enjoyed during the first half of May! Awesome!!!

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I am sort of agreeing with a post a few above me. I think the ridge over the central US will start to get broken down with the west coast trough that will move on shore next week. If the GFS is accurate the ridge should get flattened out and lay over into more of a east northeast to southwest axis, which should remove the blocking pattern and allow for any disturbances in the southern branch of the jet to move into the planes. The only strong jet streaks or troughs showing up on the map in this time period were way up over the northwest portion of the map and southwest of Alaska. I believe it was the 12Z run I went over though. I don't remember, it's on my blog though if you want to check it out. I can't remember all the details. I've looked at way to many models and weather maps tonight.

The one thing that matters and the one thing that I really care about is that there is starting to be some consistency in the central US ridge getting sheared off, so instead of a high amplitude ridge you have a low amplitude tilted ridge which won't have the dramatic blocking effect that we've been having.
I'm just looking for hope. I had lost about all of it, but now I'm thinking we will get a week or two if we are lucky of typical spring west coast troughing with a few good tornado outbreaks.

edit - btw I haven't even wasted my time looking at the spider webs on the ensembles, but I have been checking up on the ECMWF.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

The ECMWF does NOT break down the ridge or move the low much through 240 hours- that worries me as it is by far the best LR model.

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

I think the real discussion will soon be why the models are performing so horribly this year -- although surprisingly consistent in poor forecasting. It seems they have some kind of built-in climatological element that wants to pollute the algorithms.

W.

Ed Berry noted the following in his last blog post:

"There is also no change to the painful complexity, including the harsh reality that now is not a good time to be making weather predictions."

If it's painfully complex for Ed..I imagine the models must be really feeling the pain as well!