Future of the season part deux

[Darren Addy]

I was just thinking about how the June 3, 1980 real "night of the twisters" in Grand Island, NE was a NW flow event. "On the night of June 3, 1980, the weather service had not issued a tornado watch. The forecast called for only a 20 percent chance of thundershowers, and nothing about weather conditions that night seemed unusual until the storm formed suddenly."

I think there may be a lesson there, for those of us who may be inclined to sit on our hands until the SPC issues a Moderate Risk to go chase.

 

[Olivier Staiger]

I love June in the alley. Prefer it to May, actually. A quick 3 personal scores come to mind...all pretty darn healthy...and all in June's Northwest Flow. June 9th, 2003 - O'Neill, Nebraska. June 10th, 2004 - Big Springs, Nebraska (and I wasn't there, but don't forget Iowa the next day!) June 10th, 2006 (Gordon, Nebraska - I was the ONLY chaser on it..multiple tornadoes).

oh yes, magic June ... longer sunshine ... less traffic... photogenic storms...

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

Wow, this thread is pushing 400 posts. I had decided to wait a few days before making any optimistic comments about the GFS solutions for the first part of June. I was waiting for some consistency from run to run. I am now beginning to have hope for the upcoming week and beyond as the GFS has been continuing to show a trough moving into the western US kicking out several shortwaves in a true southwest flow regime from around June 4-5 and beyond.

With that said, I have had a nice break since my last chase and have 21 days of vacation for this year, so I will likely be using a few of those days to venture out and take my last shots this season at finding a nice tornado.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all...

I am hoping and wishing EVERYONE a fun, productive, and safe JUNE ...

All it takes is just ONE GOOD DAY ... Pray for a repeat of 2005 ;-)

Above: After 3 weeks of "garbage" storms in May 2005 ... June 12, 2005 did all this (one day, and ONE storm - Yes, all those tornadoes from ONE cyclic storm)!

Too optimistic? Not sure ... But June comes through 90% of the time when May fails.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Chris nailed it on the head you don't need a monster negative tilt trough to have a great tornado day in June. Setups such as June 9 and 12, 2005, looked very similar to the pattern setting up with basic SW flow, not very strong but enough and then just a few shortwaves embedded in the flow to fire storms off and top that with June moisture and instability that we should have by mid-late next week (this weekend maybe not though), as well as the outflow boundaries that are likely going to be associated with overnight convection typical in June setups and we could see multiple tornadic events across the Plains for a prolonged period, we may not see the monster May 5, 2007 or May 23, 2008 type of mega outbreaks but we could still have great chase days yielding 5-10 maybe 20 tornadoes on a bigger day. I wouldn't call these setups marginal though, I would call them classic June setups over the Plains!

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Too optimistic? Not sure ... But June comes through 90% of the time when May fails.

Too bad the pattern looks a lot like that "10%".

12z GFS June 6th aside!

 

[Andrew Stoller]

The fact that the GFS is now consistently showing troughiness out west is bringing a smile to my face.

I agree Michael, I need to start chasing some of these "smaller" setups, because everytime I don't, it ends up like June 12, 2005!

Sometimes the sleeper setups are better - less real estate to forecast/a smaller target area, less chance of upper level forcing and LLJ advection bringing a cloudy mess into the target area and limiting instability etc. etc. etc.

 

[Eric Bucsela]

Mike Hollingshead wrote:
Too bad the pattern looks a lot like that "10%"...12z GFS June 6th aside

The GFS is all over the map(!) Compare today's 00z, 06z and 12z. The only thing consistent is the forecast of shortwave energy in the coming week (unlike the no-flo of last week). Just gotta get out and chase. This time of year you really can't see more than about 3 days ahead.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Nice input, guys ... And the saying is true for the fact that we do NOT need a "monster setup", just a "nice" setup.

June 12, 2005 was "made" by an outflow boundary that remained draped across N-C Texas from overnight convection from a large MCS on June 11 (the day prior).

This boundary acted like a warm / stationary front would during the early spring, with potent dryline surging eastward. The cyclic supercell formed where these two met (a triple point).

One cell north of this area, and the boundary, also formed, but produced only one small funnel before having it's infow being choked by the "main" storm near Jayton / Crosbyton, along the boundary and TP.

Oh, and another thing, the GFS (GooFuS) has surely been living up to its name lately ...

Another cell developed south of the "main" storm just as it was on its last tornado "cycle". The cell, being dryline forced and away from the triple point, only produced a rotating wall cloud / brief spin-up.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

I was all happy about the pattern coming up until I saw the 12Z ECMWF, it never brings in the EPAC low and drives another front well south next week. This model usually beats the GFS, but the GFS ensembles are in good agreement about the trough in the West scenario later next week, and the EC has not been consistent run-to-run. So I will remain cautiously optimistic, but a seed of doubt has been sown.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

What site do you guys use for the ECMWF?

 

[Andrew Stoller]

Oops, I got it. Yea, that pesky southwest/Mexico ridge is stuck there and blocking any trough from moving into the western US.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forec...op!od!oper!public_plots!2009052812!!chart.gif

 

[Scott McPartland]

Actually, it's a freaking Rex Block that the Euro has setting up where the high pressure to the north over the GOA is causing the low/trough to it's south to stall out. Ughhh, the stress continues! But, it should get moving again once the high to it's north loses it's influence, question is when though.

For the time being however, like Matt, I will remain cautiously optimistic. The NCEP mean/members have been tightly clustered for about two days now showing the trough making progress eastward next week. So they have been consistent in showing that for a while now. Let's just hope the GFS/GFS ensembles win out over the Euro this time around. Then again, this latest run of the Euro could just be an anomaly, we'll see what the 0z run looks like late tonight.

For the time being, Dave and I are still sitting tight here in NY waiting and watching

 

[Warren Faidley]

This pattern trend is exactly what I noted yesterday. Each 00/18z run of the GFS reduces the CAPE and either NW or SW flow (and strength) orientation over the Plains (north and/or south) and moves everything back a day or so every run. This is almost 100% the same mode the GFS has been presenting this spring. This is not to say (as others have noted) there will not be surprise events, but the once presented pattern of a prolonged period of good chasing seems to be fading once more.

W.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all...

I noticed the same pattern with these pesky ridges ... You see a "promising" low pressure trough, then it elongates W of the ridge and pinches off into the cutoff-low / rex-block off California ... Allowing the ridge to survive and even strengthen.

Late May 2003 and 2006 all over again...

Also, interesting how these fronts blast all the way through the plains, scouring out any remaining hopes of NW flow stuff ... My group and I used to call these FLUSH FRONTS ... Like a toilet - Specially made for season '09 ;-(

Season 2009 ... And remember - Flush!