Derek Weston
EF5
SPC has already hatched day 4-5-6 outlooks. Quite a bit of wording for what seem to be only marginal days.... me thinks they've been a bit bored too.
Future of the season part deux
- Thread starter Warren Faidley
- Start date
Andrew Stoller
EF5
Along with all our wallets...
Stan Rose
EF5
I disagree with that, Derek. The criteria for an outlook are "30% higher chance for svr..." I think you are thinking in terms of tornado chasing, not the likelihood of severe weather. 30% is really not that huge a probability. Given the relatively decent agreement between the models, I think SPC was quite reasonable in their outlook.
Derek Weston
EF5
With that criteria, can understand the days inclusion. Sure. Not really saying that is off. Looks like slight risks to me... for which there seemed to be more wording than normal. The day 6 mention of the word tornado, I thought was interesting.
(what I'm saying: they're giving these days more attention than they'd usually give them in discussion... but maybe it's just been too long since the last 4-8outlook)
Andrew Pritchard
EF5
In all fairness, the first two days they highlighted merely talk about mcs production, which seems pretty likely to me. Any other May and I probably wouldn't be too excited about this upcoming setup (talking this weekend, not extended beyond that). With substantial late May instability, we will see a couple days of potential NW flow events in the NE/IA/MO/IL corridor which resembles more of a late June pattern. Often this will include some HP supercells early on, developing into a damaging wind producing bow echo after dark. With the year thus far, I'll take that. SPC seems to highlight that threat pretty well with their outlook.
Eric Bucsela
EF2
I see where SPC has outlooked, but it's also looking to me like Colorado upslope for the beginning of next week (roughly Mon - Wed time frame). Mid-level flow over the central Plains is weak, but the 25-30 kts progged by GFS over eastern Colorado would be sufficient for that area. That, combined with southeasterly return flow after the frontal passage Sunday night ("day after") and upper 50s dews are a classic setup for severe. June is their high season. What do you all think?
BTW, new 12z ECMWF is really taking its time bringing in the EPAC energy next week.
BTW, new 12z ECMWF is really taking its time bringing in the EPAC energy next week.
John Hudson
EF4
The day 6 outlook left me rather puzzled, as well. Looking at the wind fields for both days, upper flow over KS/OK looks pretty anemic. I thought that the best TOR potential (and not great, either) exists in the north Central Plains.
In particular, day 5 in the NC NE/W IA seems to have the best combination of shear and instability.
Maybe I missed something?
John
VE4 JTH
Stan Rose
EF5
I couldnt agree more! Not that im biased, since it would only be a short trip for me
Yeah, the 12Z EC continues to be less encouraging than the GFS early on, but it sure gets agressive in the latter periods!Derrick Herndon
I couldnt agree more! Not that im biased, since it would only be a short trip for me
Stan where are you seeing the 12Z EC at? I usually look here:
http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_amer_12/cep12_9panel.gif
But it is not updated yet. Would love to find a place that posts it sooner.
Derrick Herndon
Nevermind it is up on the ECMWF page though I prefer the 500/MSLP overlays. Man I wish they were not so stingy with the model data.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
I hate to say it, but the model trends over the last few days are starting to look just like the previous weeks since late April. 1: The models look great for a prolonged period 5-10 days out. 2: The NWS discussions and models point to things like "pattern change," SVR and "dryline." 3: A front punches down from the north and disrupts the moisture flow. 4: The NWS discussions and forecasts begin to drop favorable notations and push everything back a week. 5: The models begin to delay favorable troughing by a 4-7 days. 6: The models eventually remove any hope. Although the last step has not occurred yet, this pattern is unsettling. I **think** if the next 24-72 hours of model runs do not reverse and bring the flow back or support it, but rather delay/stall it, then the summer, climate pattern will prevail and the odds of a June season will all but vaporize.
W.
W.
Matthew Crowther
EF3
I see what you are saying, but the model hope previously was always after 300 hours on the GFS, and that is almost always garbage anyhow. My gut on this pattern is: It will be quite a bit better than the no severe no flow situation we have been in for the past 2 weeks, but wll not be a killer tornado producing situation either. In other words, for the skillful/lucky chaser in the first two weeks of June there will be rewards, and if we are fortunate there will be one or two good tornado days in there somewhere.
Andrew Pritchard
EF5
I think we've got more of a mid-late June pattern taking effect here, which is really going to favor two areas. Those two areas being the upslope flow along the Rockies, namely in central/eastern Colorado into western Nebraska and Wyoming and the other being the midwest in areas from the NE/IA/MN/IL corridor.
Their should be several good days along the front range of the Rockies where upslope flow interacting with any shortwaves ejecting eastward could net some sculpted supercells and potential landspout play for high plains chasers.
Further east we'll see the late June style pattern set in, with a stationary boundary stretching from Nebraska into the mid-Mississippi valley under at times very favorable NW flow. Typically you'll see a severe threat anywhere along this stationary front as it wobbles north and south, being enhanced by any embedded shortwaves in the NW flow, and any outflow boundaries from overnight convection. It's certainly not everyones first pick, but you can come away with some beefy supercells early on from these setups, often of the HP variety. It's not the first choice for tornado viewing, but can be fruitful from a convective standpoint, and occasionally are tornado producers. The Interstate 80 corridor from Grand Island, NE to Chicago, IL is often a good place to be during a pattern such as this.
We'll see how things play out. Late May and early June instability will be in place, but whether we get some good waves embedded in the NW flow will be the key. Already looks like a potentially good day in eastern Iowa on Friday if enough moisture can arrive in time behind this tropical low that's finally moving on out.
Their should be several good days along the front range of the Rockies where upslope flow interacting with any shortwaves ejecting eastward could net some sculpted supercells and potential landspout play for high plains chasers.
Further east we'll see the late June style pattern set in, with a stationary boundary stretching from Nebraska into the mid-Mississippi valley under at times very favorable NW flow. Typically you'll see a severe threat anywhere along this stationary front as it wobbles north and south, being enhanced by any embedded shortwaves in the NW flow, and any outflow boundaries from overnight convection. It's certainly not everyones first pick, but you can come away with some beefy supercells early on from these setups, often of the HP variety. It's not the first choice for tornado viewing, but can be fruitful from a convective standpoint, and occasionally are tornado producers. The Interstate 80 corridor from Grand Island, NE to Chicago, IL is often a good place to be during a pattern such as this.
We'll see how things play out. Late May and early June instability will be in place, but whether we get some good waves embedded in the NW flow will be the key. Already looks like a potentially good day in eastern Iowa on Friday if enough moisture can arrive in time behind this tropical low that's finally moving on out.
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Kevin Walters
EF2
NW flow events can be efficient tornado producers. After mid June a good percentage of tornadoes in Iowa move to the SE. I know Matt Crowther was in Iowa in late June of 1979. He could tell you about a NW flow tornado outbreak. This could be a year with one or more noteworthy NW flow events.
joel ewing
EF5
Future of the season
I love June in the alley. Prefer it to May, actually. A quick 3 personal scores come to mind...all pretty darn healthy...and all in June's Northwest Flow. June 9th, 2003 - O'Neill, Nebraska. June 10th, 2004 - Big Springs, Nebraska (and I wasn't there, but don't forget Iowa the next day!) June 10th, 2006 (Gordon, Nebraska - I was the ONLY chaser on it..multiple tornadoes).
Anyhow, I'm flying into Omaha on June 2nd. In for a penny...In for a pound. Bring it on, Shack Daddy!
I love June in the alley. Prefer it to May, actually. A quick 3 personal scores come to mind...all pretty darn healthy...and all in June's Northwest Flow. June 9th, 2003 - O'Neill, Nebraska. June 10th, 2004 - Big Springs, Nebraska (and I wasn't there, but don't forget Iowa the next day!) June 10th, 2006 (Gordon, Nebraska - I was the ONLY chaser on it..multiple tornadoes).
Anyhow, I'm flying into Omaha on June 2nd. In for a penny...In for a pound. Bring it on, Shack Daddy!
